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2014 Summer Outlook

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2014 Summer Outlook Empty 2014 Summer Outlook

Post by Frank_Wx Thu May 22, 2014 11:53 am

My 2014 Summer Outlook. Ask questions if you have any.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2014/05/nj-strong-wx-2014-summer-outlook.html

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Post by jmanley32 Thu May 22, 2014 2:08 pm

Nice write up Frank! SO you think we may be in for a big storm in July or August and beyond from the tropics, or let me rephrase that the possibility. Why would they all be extra tropical though and not tropical, it is after all tropics season by then. Several sources are worried about a east coast hit but it doesnt take a fully tropical system do do bad, ie. sandy of course we don't want another Sandy. What do you think of global oscillation weather? They predicted last year right, and are predicting the most storms out of anyone this year and some major threat to US, especially east coast line. If it didnt cost money I would be interested to see where they think a landfall or more would happen. That to me seems like a marketing ploy though and I will not buy into that! Did you see long range GFS, shows a development around early June and by June 7th its over FL 985mb, moving north or NE, can't tell at this point, it has been very consistent with showing a developing storm around this time frame, what do you think? When the other models come into range I guess we will know better if they buy into the development too. And how did you do with the tropics last year? I wasn't here, you are usually so spot on I would imagine you may have gotten it right too? Glad to hear less 90 degree days, im not a skinny guy and the heat kills me.
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Post by Analog96 Thu May 22, 2014 3:01 pm

Good job!
Not too different from my thoughts.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu May 22, 2014 7:46 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Nice write up Frank!  SO you think we may be in for a big storm in July or August and beyond from the tropics, or let me rephrase that the possibility.  Why would they all be extra tropical though and not tropical, it is after all tropics season by then.  Several sources are worried about a east coast hit but it doesnt take a fully tropical system do do bad, ie. sandy of course we don't want another Sandy.  What do you think of global oscillation weather?  They predicted last year right, and are predicting the most storms out of anyone this year and some major threat to US, especially east coast line.  If it didnt cost money I would be interested to see where they think a landfall or more would happen.  That to me seems like a marketing ploy though and I will not buy into that!  Did you see long range GFS, shows a development around early June and by June 7th its over FL 985mb, moving north or NE, can't tell at this point, it has been very consistent with showing a developing storm around this time frame, what do you think?  When the other models come into range I guess we will know better if they buy into the development too.  And how did you do with the tropics last year? I wasn't here, you are usually so spot on I would imagine you may have gotten it right too?  Glad to hear less 90 degree days, im not a skinny guy and the heat kills me.  

The development of an El Niño is going to severely impact the Hurricane season. During Niño years, wind shear suppresses tropical development due to the wind speeds and changing directions. SST's in the Atlantic may not even be that warm - probably around average, which will also suppress tropical development a bit. I'm only thinking between 7-12 named storms this years, only 1-2 will be "major" (category 3 or higher). During Niño years, like I said in my blog, there is a tendency for storms to develop off our coast due to waves developing along troughs that slide through the northeast. And yes, I usually do hurricane outlooks but may not this season since I really think the intensifying Niño will bring an uninspiring season.

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Post by HectorO Tue May 27, 2014 7:26 am

I keep hearing very wet a very hot summer. But then again half of these stations can't even get a week forecast right. I think it will be a average. I have family coming up in 3 weeks. Hope the weather is good.
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Post by algae888 Tue May 27, 2014 8:34 am

@HectorO wrote:I keep hearing very wet a very hot summer. But then again half of these  stations can't even get a week forecast right. I think it will be a average. I have family coming up in 3 weeks. Hope the weather is good.

hector usually if it's wet it would not be hot. after today we shouldn't be this warm again for some time.
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Post by amugs Tue May 27, 2014 9:56 am

@algae888 wrote:
@HectorO wrote:I keep hearing very wet a very hot summer. But then again half of these  stations can't even get a week forecast right. I think it will be a average. I have family coming up in 3 weeks. Hope the weather is good.

hector usually if it's wet it would not be hot. after today we shouldn't be this warm again for some time.

Guys,

If you look some posts back or maybe I put it in the long range but the set up is not conducive to sustained heat waves but more of a transient patttern of warm for few days then cooler with these back door cold front coming in after a couple of days of warmth. This - to Netral NAO is teh player here dampening the pattern. WE are on teh fringe of the HP and it usually starts to build or is built in teh heartland of America moving our way but is stuck out west. If we get the Bermuda high (heat pump) building and becoming dominant this summer then we bake/broil and complain about how disgusting teh weather is. Depending on Mr. Cinco de El Nino will have a factor on the summer but like Frank said it looks to be wetter than normal and seasonal temps. Only time will tell and I heard from a family member than Channel 7 did a sumer outlook - did anyone see it or can post it - I can't find it - interesting to see what they have to say. Suspect 

California Chrome has a better shot of winning the triple crown than what predictions may come to fruition tis summer. Great story btw gotta love it.

Mugs

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Post by GreyBeard Tue May 27, 2014 4:49 pm

Nice analysis Frank. I personally wouldn't mind fewer 90 degree days. Not a big fan of excessive heat. I know you don't particularly like to jump ahead,but if an El Nino persisted through the winter wouldn't that mean more snowstorms for us?

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Post by HectorO Tue May 27, 2014 9:58 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@HectorO wrote:I keep hearing very wet a very hot summer. But then again half of these  stations can't even get a week forecast right. I think it will be a average. I have family coming up in 3 weeks. Hope the weather is good.

hector usually if it's wet it would not be hot. after today we shouldn't be this warm again for some time.

The actual temp may not show it to be real hot but the humidity during a wet summer can create thick and uncomfortable humidity. And when that happens, you'd rather have a 90 degree day than a day that is in the low to mid 80s with high humidity.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed May 28, 2014 7:08 am

@GreyBeard wrote:Nice analysis Frank. I personally wouldn't mind fewer 90 degree days. Not a big fan of excessive heat. I know you don't particularly like to jump ahead,but if an El Nino persisted through the winter wouldn't that mean more snowstorms for us?
If we have a weak or moderate El Nino, most likely yes. However, if we should get a strong one, we'll torch!
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Post by amugs Wed May 28, 2014 9:35 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@GreyBeard wrote:Nice analysis Frank. I personally wouldn't mind fewer 90 degree days. Not a big fan of excessive heat. I know you don't particularly like to jump ahead,but if an El Nino persisted through the winter wouldn't that mean more snowstorms for us?
If we have a weak or moderate El Nino, most likely yes. However, if we should get a strong one, we'll torch!

Nuts, that is true and if we have a -NAO then we get buried - could happen even with a very moderate nino - meaning +2.5 ENSO!!! I believe this happened in 2010-11. Anyway a great write up by Frank !! Again!

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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed May 28, 2014 10:18 am

@amugs wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@GreyBeard wrote:Nice analysis Frank. I personally wouldn't mind fewer 90 degree days. Not a big fan of excessive heat. I know you don't particularly like to jump ahead,but if an El Nino persisted through the winter wouldn't that mean more snowstorms for us?
If we have a weak or moderate El Nino, most likely yes. However, if we should get a strong one, we'll torch!

Nuts, that is true and if we have a -NAO then we get buried - could happen even with a very moderate nino - meaning +2.5  ENSO!!! I believe this happened in 2010-11. Anyway a great write up by Frank !! Again!
A moderate El nino with a -NAO would be a dream scenario for us along with a lot of sleepless nights. Can't wait till fall to see how the pattern starts to develop.
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Post by HectorO Wed May 28, 2014 6:12 pm

Mugs, I have Caribbean blood in me. I can take the heat better than I can the cold. I'm looking forward to beaches, sun and beers. I hope we don't get rained out.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed May 28, 2014 8:03 pm

@GreyBeard wrote:Nice analysis Frank. I personally wouldn't mind fewer 90 degree days. Not a big fan of excessive heat. I know you don't particularly like to jump ahead,but if an El Nino persisted through the winter wouldn't that mean more snowstorms for us?

As some have already stated, a strong El Niño would mean warmer than normal temps though it doesn't always mean less snow. The trick is to get blocking. A -NAO along with an active southern branch would be the biggest recipes to getting snowstorms. Blocking allows the northern and southern branches of the jets to phase which leads to huge Nor'easters, likely Godzilla's and Roidzillas. It is more thread the needle without the blocking.

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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Jun 06, 2014 9:17 pm

Mugs.....Channel 7's forecast....
     June - Normal temps and precip
     July -  Above normal temps and normal precip
     Aug. - Above normal temps and below normal precip.
It's buried on their site...wrote it down and then lost the link...I'll look again...


found it....

http://7online.com/weather/the-2014-summer-forecast/71829/


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Post by amugs Sun Jun 08, 2014 3:41 pm

Zoo thanks for the info! We'll see how they do!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:14 am

Update: 

With Meteorological Summer officially over, it is time to take a look back at the summer outlook released in May. Overall, the outlook went as expected. 

This is what the temp departures from normal looked like June-August:

2014 Summer Outlook Image


This is what my summer out temp departure map looked like:


2014 Summer Outlook Image

The southwest US I forecasted too warm, but the Great Lakes were cool and the northwest was warm while we remained mainly around average, as I predicted. I almost got southern Texas right too with cooler than normal temps, but those anomalies ended up being in northern Mexico. 

As for precipitation...not as great. 

This is what actually happened:
2014 Summer Outlook Image


This is what I predicted:


2014 Summer Outlook Image


The interior northeast did see above normal precip, but the coast (our area) finished around average or slightly below average. It seemed like the rain kept dying out as it was moving east-southeast. Atmosphere was just not moist enough. 
Also, the central US was a little wetter than normal. Not dry like I predicted. The west did remain mainly dry, though. Their drought continues.

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Post by Isotherm Tue Sep 02, 2014 10:17 am

Great work Frank. Most important aspect in LR forecasting is correctly deciphering the large scale pattern, and you definitely did that here. Essentially the same regime we saw last winter persisted right through the warm season, with a ridge west / trough central / ridge off the east coast mean synoptic set-up. Your temperature departures were also close. Convection is tough due to its hit or miss nature, but the general idea of a wetter central/east was correct. As I said on the other board, let's hope we can continue our good forecasting through the winter!

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