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June 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jun 07, 2014 2:03 pm

Marvelous day today. When the humidity is low, I don't even mind temps in the low 90's. I think I'm in the low 80's right now. Next week is looking pretty unsettled with numerous days of overcast and showers.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jun 08, 2014 2:04 pm

86 and sunny right now. Like I said before, this week looks pretty unsettled with a chance of showers almost every day.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jun 09, 2014 9:39 am

Getting up this morning was as difficult as nailing jelly to a wall

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 09, 2014 9:59 am

OMG Frank, when you said some rain I didn't think you meant like this! LOL Stinks its flooding all over in the Bronx, took me a hour to go 8 miles. Tis mother nautre I guess. Can we expect slow moving batches of rain like this more this week? Areal flood advisory has been extended 3x now, I haven't seen that too often.
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Post by Dtone Mon Jun 09, 2014 10:38 am

I was a little surprised too at how heavy the rain was. It was less as I drove north.

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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Jun 09, 2014 10:39 am

What a morning :-( No flooding issues here, had heavy rain overnight, a break this morning, and rain again now....

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jun 09, 2014 2:56 pm

Not sure if its just a low coming off but noted on 12z Euro a low like looking forming off carolinas, not at all in line with GFS but interesting nonetheless.
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Post by Quietace Mon Jun 09, 2014 3:41 pm

Pretty much rained all day so far here. Completely fine with that.
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Post by amugs Mon Jun 09, 2014 5:12 pm

.74" of rain in the bucket - great for the lawn and plants!!

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Post by HectorO Tue Jun 10, 2014 11:59 am

amugs wrote:.74" of rain in the bucket - great for the lawn and plants!!

All this moisture has the gnats in armies this year. I can't even get out my car at work without some flying in my mouth, eyes and ears. The second I park they swarm the car.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jun 10, 2014 11:59 am

Showers possible today and tomorrow. Next threat of steady rain likely Thursday afternoon into the evening.

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Post by HectorO Tue Jun 10, 2014 12:36 pm

Looks like there could be a mini heat wave next week. Temps will be in the high 80s for northern jersey but I'm sure it will break 90 and parts of central jersey and south jersey will see temps that could hit mid 90s. Here come the dreaded electric bills.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jun 10, 2014 3:46 pm

And don't forget power outages, at least with Con Edison, overload. Every year it happens at some point. Several wires caught fire in past few years near me one all way through and fell to ground.
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Post by HectorO Tue Jun 10, 2014 4:04 pm

Power here is garbage. Places like FL have those things cranked from March until like late October even November. The only time power ever went down for me when living a few years down there was during a Cat 2 hurricane. Pretty much went through a Cat 1 without losing it.
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Post by Dtone Tue Jun 10, 2014 6:40 pm

This part of the country is in general just old..older buildings, older infrastructure..mostly built at a time when all the electronics and appliances we use now was not a consideration. Never built to handle it. You can make improvements but its never the same as starting from scratch with newer technology.
and window ac's esp older ones are a huge drain. Everybody has central AC down there.

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Post by amugs Tue Jun 10, 2014 9:52 pm

June 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread  - Page 2 Url?sa=i&rct=j&q=darryl+sutter&source=images&cd=&docid=2g-9o25QNoY-eM&tbnid=NNCnzJsqOwMyNM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Flasportshubhttps://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=darryl+sutter&source=images&cd=&docid=2g-9o25QNoY-eM&tbnid=NNCnzJsqOwMyNM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Flasportshub.com%2F2012%2F09%2F13%2Ftop-25-in-la-16-darryl-sutter%2F&ei=7KWTU8LJDYnKsQTu3oD4Ag&psig=AFQjCNGkyuhJe-wW7B-bro1-zVdcm2BzzQ&ust=1402271500198330

Here is the heat wave mid week like you guys are talking about!
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=darryl+sutter&source=images&cd=&docid=2g-9o25QNoY-eM&tbnid=NNCnzJsqOwMyNM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Flasportshub.com%2F2012%2F09%2F13%2Ftop-25-in-la-16-darryl-sutter%2F&ei=7KWTU8LJDYnKsQTu3oD4Ag&psig=AFQjCNGkyuhJe-wW7B-bro1-zVdcm2BzzQ&ust=140227150019833

Then we look to go back to normal temps through a back door front through early July.

We shall see but get the ac ready - change/ clean those filters and keep the shades down.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jun 10, 2014 10:24 pm

Since no one is reading the tropics section I am posting this cause I have a question.  The GEFS have also consistently shown a storm developing now in the 8-10 day, still far out yes but a number of them take some serious hurricanes or hybrids whatever up the east coast one even has a 100.8kt storm hit LI (11 of the 20 take a direct hit or near miss, thats a 55% chance this run, and many are at or above cat 1 strength).  My question is is this as bad a model as GFS right now, I know they are related but how and by how much? Also  Ryan Maue also mentioned the GEFS Rv2?  I saw the images shows similar senarios with some EC pressures dropping into the 960's. Maue also suggested that there is a bug in the GFS, if this is true which they better fix, would that also affect the GEFS ensembles?
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Post by HectorO Wed Jun 11, 2014 7:25 am

jmanley32 wrote:Since no one is reading the tropics section I am posting this cause I have a question.  The GEFS have also consistently shown a storm developing now in the 8-10 day, still far out yes but a number of them take some serious hurricanes or hybrids whatever up the east coast one even has a 100.8kt storm hit LI (11 of the 20 take a direct hit or near miss, thats a 55% chance this run, and many are at or above cat 1 strength).  My question is is this as bad a model as GFS right now, I know they are related but how and by how much?  Also  Ryan Maue also mentioned the GEFS Rv2?  I saw the images shows similar senarios with some EC pressures dropping into the 960's.  Maue also suggested that there is a bug in the GFS, if this is true which they better fix, would that also affect the GEFS ensembles?

lol I've skimmed through the tropics section. It's just that I never put any thought into the tropics until about late August or September. Storms fizzle fast in June.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:51 am

Hey Hector well the GFS is holding tight to a storm for 3 weeks now, we kinda got a development but not wehat  the GFS was showing and your right it quyickly died but this time the GFS seems to be showing stronger and more of a threat to FL and East Coast, well actually let me say the GEFS (GFS is weaker and into GOM).  This is kind of strange to be because I would think if at least half the GEFS are showing a EC storm that ther GFS wouldn't be showing a purely GOM system, maybe somewhere in between, but then again outside of 5-7 days track is pretty hard to pin down especially on something that hasn't even formed yet and by many is thought to be a phantom storm.  Only thing I can say is that the development time has remained around 150 hrs, which is much closer than it was.

On another note chilly and very windy here this morning! Feels like April. Hope heat isnt too intense next week, I hate being in my work cloths romping around the city for work in the humid heat.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jun 11, 2014 7:49 pm

Now as of the 18z we have support around 144 hrs same as GFS from the NAVGEM, yes not most reliable but its the first to actually show a low, albeit weak.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:01 pm

I hear storms for Friday, severe?
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jun 13, 2014 9:11 am

This entire week has been dreadful. Every day it has rained. Backdoor cold fronts suck.

Bright side is morning clouds tomorrow will lead to sunshine which will last into Sunday. Another nice weekend on tap with temps in the low 80's.

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Post by amugs Fri Jun 13, 2014 10:03 am

Frank_Wx wrote:This entire week has been dreadful. Every day it has rained. Backdoor cold fronts suck.

Bright side is morning clouds tomorrow will lead to sunshine which will last into Sunday. Another nice weekend on tap with temps in the low 80's.

That it does but being in school I do not mind - the kids can actually focus a bit more than when it is sunny or unbearably hot like the last number od years!

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jun 13, 2014 11:39 am

That was one heck of a rainstorm here in Westchester! Reports are 1.5 inches fell in about am hour. I was on road and had to pull over it was so blinding. GFS still holding onto a storm developing and going up the coast. People are starting to question why NOAA or NWS has not explained the issue with GFS if it is indeed incorrect. I do not ever remember the GFS being so bad with the tropics. Let alone showing something for a month!
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jun 13, 2014 3:28 pm

Squall line capable of producing flash flooding, hail, and gusty winds moving into the area!
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/weather-radar?play=1

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jun 13, 2014 3:29 pm

These are TRAINING storms. This means they are moving at a very slow pace and could drop excessive amounts of rainfall in a short period of time. Biggest concern is flash flooding. Eastern PA getting into them now. We will be dealing with this almost all night

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Post by Dtone Fri Jun 13, 2014 3:32 pm

The sun is out now, temp up to 77* dewpoint 70*
When do you think that line of storms will reach NYC?

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