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July 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jul 26, 2014 11:54 pm

Yeah and HRRR for tomorrow morning also looks stout too (below). We could get both morning and night IF the sun can come out during the day. The NWS discussion stated that northern NJ and Lower Hudson valley may see a prolonged period of sun which of course would destabilize things and allow these storms to fire. We will see.

July 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread  - Page 8 Hrrr11
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Post by algae888 Sun Jul 27, 2014 7:56 am

this mornings forecast is a dud!... nws interpretation of model data way off. according to their forecast we should be in some strong to severe t/storms right now. 70% likely pop for this morning. cloudy and very calm, 71* hum. 67%. radar very quiet.
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Post by algae888 Sun Jul 27, 2014 8:34 am

just read accu wx forecast for this morning and theirs is much more accurate. they downplayed the event for this morning unlike NWS. accu wx says a couple of showers with a t/storm in spots and no mention of rotation for this morning or night.
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Post by Quietace Sun Jul 27, 2014 8:37 am

Having a nice little rain storm from a small cell. Haha

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jul 27, 2014 9:09 am

Yeah wow algae Iam going to agree with ya on that one! So looks like we may get the daytimr heating so out begiest chance is this afternoon and evening but they pulled back from 30% to 15% for wind on SPC so I may be more inclined to believe this to be a non-event for the area anyways. HRRR for this afternoon has alot of storms headed for the area. One small one right over southern westchester but it had this morning wrong so I wouldnt be surprised if it was wrong later too.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jul 27, 2014 9:24 am

Hey dunzoo, at the open house you should call them out on this mornings forecast lol, no don't I'm JK. I was going to go but other plans came up, plus its a really long drive. Judging from frecasts looks like this afternoon and night could be more widespread, if we get the destabilization.
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Post by algae888 Sun Jul 27, 2014 9:26 am

any strong/severe storms should not happen until very late tonight 10pm to 6am. that's when dynamics would be at there peak. however cant rule out an isolated one this afternoon if sun comes out.
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Post by amugs Sun Jul 27, 2014 9:45 am

Looks like the lp from the gl will bring the goods or try to tonight like algae said, well done. Hrrr that I posted last night might be right but my inclination now after looking over things is that it will happen a tad later okay by me I have a bbcue today - really humid out there though . These are hard to call but watching Jeff Smith last night he said that after 8 pm would be the time we can see t- storms and some severe cells.

Had a shower this morning and sun trying to break through.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jul 27, 2014 9:57 am

Yep seeing the sun, and most recent HRRR confirms the 10pm or later thing, if that plays out looks beastly especially for flooding. So we will be able to keep instability cape, shear and helicity that late at night?

July 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread  - Page 8 Hrrr_r10
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jul 27, 2014 10:00 am

Interesting that HRRR has the highest instability for us Algae, I wonder what is crating that small area of 2000 or so j/kg.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jul 27, 2014 10:01 am

July 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread  - Page 8 Hrrr_c11
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Post by Quietace Sun Jul 27, 2014 10:36 am

Suns out here. All cleared out from this mornings rain

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jul 27, 2014 10:37 am

Yawn.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jul 27, 2014 11:07 am

LOL Frank, your too funny but yeah sure is a yawn right now, putridly humid though.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jul 27, 2014 2:39 pm

Getting very steamy out and lots of sun I think tonight will be interesting.
Currently Cape around NYC area 1376, helicity 50, effective shear 39, and into yellow instability on this page: BTW thanks frank great page.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#

 I noticed that when the main part of storms come into area they are in a horizontal like moving from south to north, this is odd, is that going to spark more violent storms/tornados?  Tornados look unlikely but SPC still has us under a 5% chance.  Cape appears to stay near 1500-2000 almost all night with a bullseye right over southern westchester.  BTW this is all per the HRRR, wasn't right this morning so could be wrong for tonight but this morning didn't really seem plausible anyways.
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Post by algae888 Sun Jul 27, 2014 4:06 pm

I'm very surprised with such a hot steamy sticky an unstable atmosphere how quiet the radar is the nearest precip is in eastern Ohio and extreme Western PA we're not getting any thunderstorms till after midnight at the earliest
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jul 27, 2014 4:15 pm

Yes algae looks to be between 1 and 5am. First tornado for the Upton area, I am not sure its confirmed yet but CT news says likely it will be a EF0 in Wolcott CT.  Weak but goes to show the area is primed, and not even at its peak yet.  Oddest thing was is apparently there was nada on the radar! Cape keeps going up at 1600 now SPC 2, shear 40 and helicity 62.  Helicity still low but its been going up slowly.  Here is a pic I got from a CT buddies FB page.

July 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread  - Page 8 Ef0_to10
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jul 27, 2014 4:30 pm

The atmosphere as we speak is beginning to stabilize, slowly but surely. Greatest severe weather parameters are situated near the main area of low pressure. 


July 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread  - Page 8 6099854fdea4c440307f5d5468f3b3f3_zps1f88eb23


As you can see, that is expected to pass through NW PA then make a sharp turn to the northeast. 


July 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread  - Page 8 9e66038d1320df8bcc20f2be67a2e6ca_zps5d3edb0a


It may not look like it now, but once that vort takes the turn north and east, the areas of convection circulating around it also take the turn north. Areas north of NYC are in line to see some pretty good storms tonight. 


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Bulk shear is diminishing as well. Now down to 40KT in NYC, 35kt just west. 


I guess one thing to look for is possible cells developing ahead of the vort, as the HRRR suggest, but with severe weather parameters diminishing for our area I wouldn't expect those storms to come of the severe variety.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jul 27, 2014 4:35 pm

I am confused Frank it appears on the page that you sent me that the n umbers are going up over here in the southern westchester area. I thought it was destabilizing, but you point to the opposite. Am I reading the maps wrong?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jul 27, 2014 4:38 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I am confused Frank it appears on the page that you sent me that the n umbers are going up over here in the southern westchester area.  I thought it was destabilizing, but you point to the opposite.  Am I reading the maps wrong?

No, you were correct. This is a timing issue though. Even though parameters are favorable now, the space between where the vort is currently located and our area is too wide. By the time it gets near us, not only will it be to our northwest, but the sun will be down by then.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jul 27, 2014 4:41 pm

Ok for instance I clicked on the map at 40.82 and 78.94 lat/long.  These were the numbers which are up again. SPC 3 (which I read about today and 3 is high) Cape 1810, Shear 42, helicity 87 and LCL 1174.  All those went up since 40 min ago.  Maybe I am missing something here or maybe your talking about a different area? HRRR shows the CAPE staying the same all night a small stream of it coming up from the south.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jul 27, 2014 4:43 pm

Ahh gotcha, sorry missed your post before i posted the readings. So there is no chance now for much of anything in this area overnight?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jul 27, 2014 4:44 pm

Jman, you are not paying attention to what I am saying. 

Yes, severe weather parameters are favorable NOW, but like I just said, it doesn't matter because the main low pressure is still too far away. By the time it gets here, all those parameters you just pointed out will look much different.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jul 27, 2014 4:45 pm

I just reposted to you, I am paying attention, I missed your post because the thread went onto a new page sorry bout that. 10/4 on what your explaining.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jul 27, 2014 4:48 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I just reposted to you, I am paying attention, I missed your post because the thread went onto a new page sorry bout that.  10/4 on what your explaining.
 
Oh yea, I hate when that happens. 

There never was a chance for severe weather, in my opinion. I've been pretty firm on that.

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