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July 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread

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snowday111
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jul 29, 2014 10:26 pm

Hey algae, never said got disappointed, glad your having fun with that thought (sarchasm, lol). I track all weather it fascinates me whether it hits or not. Yeah your right winter is much more exciting in that we get hit much more often but then again this past winter I feel you all were more disappointed than I am about the summer. I got disappointed too about winters storms that didnt happen. Thinking this winter might be a doozy. And yes agreed all the weather today is so nice.

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Post by Quietace Wed Jul 30, 2014 11:52 am

Euro still robust for this weekend.
July 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread  - Page 10 Ecmwf_10
GEM is similar
July 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread  - Page 10 Cmc_to10
GFS'
July 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread  - Page 10 Gfs_to10
While total QPF is similar, the way the GEM/Euro handle the convection/ timing is much different than the GFS. Have to see who caves to who.

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Post by amugs Wed Jul 30, 2014 12:30 pm

The string of nice weekends officially comes to an end if this holds!

That is a lot of qpf being shown in these map Ace - just as luck would have I am heading to your neck of the woods well shore on Sunday for a weeks vacation - Belmar is the town of choice - my sister's house - well 2 bedroom chateau?

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Post by Quietace Wed Jul 30, 2014 12:57 pm

amugs wrote:The string of nice weekends officially comes to an end if this holds!

That is a lot of qpf being shown in these map Ace - just as luck would have I am heading to your neck of the woods well shore on Sunday for a weeks vacation - Belmar is the town of choice - my sister's house - well 2 bedroom chateau?
yeah through mon-Tuesday on those maps.
And Make sure to visit 10th ave burrito while in belmar
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Post by snowday111 Wed Jul 30, 2014 1:04 pm

Ace - I am with you! 10th Ave burrito is YUMMY!!!!
Amugs- Make sure to sit on avenues 9 or lower if you want the nice white sand. Avenues 10-20 has new sand that was pumped in after Sandy. It's very rocky and orange. It will stain your towels and feet. Mad

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Post by Quietace Wed Jul 30, 2014 2:31 pm

12z Euro and GFS held with QPF. We do need the rain down here.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jul 30, 2014 4:20 pm

Yuck plain old rain when im going to a concert at the PNC amphetheater Saturday night dang. This stinks.
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Post by amugs Wed Jul 30, 2014 4:33 pm

snowday111 wrote:Ace - I am with you! 10th Ave burrito is YUMMY!!!!
Amugs- Make sure to sit on avenues 9 or lower if you want the nice white sand. Avenues 10-20 has new sand that was pumped in after Sandy. It's very rocky and orange. It will stain your towels and feet. Mad

Snowday holy sh$! - when we were down there for Memorial Day weekend we noticed that - my fringin' feet looked like a pumpkins! - Stained my surfer shirt and bathing suit - I was pissed. Went to Long Branch as well and frickin' mounds of the same clay (rocky orange)

Yes I have been to 10th ave burrito - awesome place - love the Boathouse Rest as well and Niki Makinotis for Ice Cream.

Here is the 12z Euro - a good rain coming Fri - Sat

July 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread  - Page 10 33ah43t

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jul 30, 2014 5:04 pm

Not only is it isolated and hit / miss type of convection, but it is spread out throughout the weekend. 1-1.50 inches of rain over 2-3 days ain't a whole lot, but we'll take it!

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Post by Noreaster Wed Jul 30, 2014 5:36 pm

How many "perfect 10" days can we have in one summer?  This has been the most pleasant summer I can remember.

Currently 78 degrees
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jul 30, 2014 7:17 pm

It's been gorgeous

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jul 30, 2014 8:09 pm

Glad to hear it won't be too heavy our seats are under the pavilion but the line I am sure is outside.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jul 30, 2014 9:19 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Yuck plain old rain when im going to a concert at the PNC amphetheater Saturday night dang.  This stinks.
i know jman i will be their as well for nin and soundgarden cant wait maybe it will work out with no rain
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jul 30, 2014 10:56 pm

Oh sweet skins! Maybe we can meetup somehow. Should be awesome. Okay now for some real fun. This is sriously the current map on TWC main map page ummm....

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jul 30, 2014 10:57 pm

If you didnt notice it theres a rouge hurricane north of georgia , whats wrong with their computers.

And really Frank keep us in suspense for a day and a half with that notice I hope its nothing bad! LOL
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jul 30, 2014 10:59 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Oh sweet skins! Maybe we can meetup somehow.  Should be awesome.  Okay now for some real fun.  This is sriously the current map on TWC main map page ummm....

July 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread  - Page 10 19203510



Haha, wow I hope there's survivors. 

And the news is good news. Nothing bad  Very Happy

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jul 30, 2014 11:00 pm

Its really not a joke its all over the web, they need to fix that.  Why can't u tell us now!  Suspense I hate it lol.

I know your pregnant right?! LOL jk.
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Post by amugs Thu Jul 31, 2014 8:09 am

jmanley32 wrote:Oh sweet skins! Maybe we can meetup somehow.  Should be awesome.  Okay now for some real fun.  This is sriously the current map on TWC main map page ummm....

July 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread  - Page 10 19203510

That is priceless shear priceless is all I can say - great one JMAN - heads are going to roll at TWC and NHC on this one!!!!!!!!!! HAHAHA Laughing Laughing 

I cna hear it now - The intense but extremely small nameless hurricane has taken everyone by surprise even the most expert meteorologists at TWC and NHC as well as the SPC and WPC also the NWS.  lol! 

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Post by mako460 Thu Jul 31, 2014 9:52 am

It must be a Sharknado!

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 31, 2014 4:31 pm

LOL, thats what a few sites made reference to lol.
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Post by crippo84 Thu Jul 31, 2014 4:49 pm

Seems like forever ago since winter and my last post/check-in. I hope everybody is enjoying their summer thus far.

Wasn't sure if this should go here or in the long range thread, as it is this upcoming weekend. I'm (hopefully) hosting a BBQ Saturday afternoon, and been following the models for a few days now hoping it won't be a complete washout. It's been, and still is, amazing how different the Euro and GFS (now NAM) depict the outcome this weekend. Today's 12Z GFS has us getting very little precip, with the majority staying offshore. Meanwhile the Euro has us getting plastered with rain Saturday morning into early afternoon. The latest GFS gave me a ray of hope that I might be able to entertain Saturday, but wanted to get some other opinions/guesses as to how this weekend will play. Not that I'll take anyone's 'forecast' and plan my BBQ around it - I'll be nowcasting come Saturday morning, but want to see what others think for this weekend.

....I miss snowcasting.
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Post by algae888 Thu Jul 31, 2014 5:25 pm

crippo84 wrote:Seems like forever ago since winter and my last post/check-in.  I hope everybody is enjoying their summer thus far.

Wasn't sure if this should go here or in the long range thread, as it is this upcoming weekend.  I'm (hopefully) hosting a BBQ Saturday afternoon, and been following the models for a few days now hoping it won't be a complete washout.  It's been, and still is, amazing how different the Euro and GFS (now NAM) depict the outcome this weekend.  Today's 12Z GFS has us getting very little precip, with the majority staying offshore.  Meanwhile the Euro has us getting plastered with rain Saturday morning into early afternoon.  The latest GFS gave me a ray of hope that I might be able to entertain Saturday, but wanted to get some other opinions/guesses as to how this weekend will play.  Not that I'll take anyone's 'forecast' and plan my BBQ around it - I'll be nowcasting come Saturday morning, but want to see what others think for this weekend.

....I miss snowcasting.

well crippo Its remarkable how dry gfs is and how wet euro is. probably not a great weekend for a bbq but in summer you never know. just look at last weekend. one thing to note is pop which are capped between 30 and 50% highest for sunday. I think it will not be a wash out but when it rains who knows. also there could be flooding rains 10 miles from you and you have the sun shinning. another reason to dislike summer weather. and yes I miss snow casting too!
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Post by amugs Thu Jul 31, 2014 8:12 pm

Checked in with Channel 7 an dthey are saying there wil be abreak around 1PM until Sat night with the rain but the morning for areas say Morris COunty eastward get a lot of rain from about 7am until about 1pm ish so if you can wait until 2ish top get the goods rollin then you should be good - it will come in waves so to speak fri break then sat am then break then sat night late? and sun morning then break and possibly sun night into mon morning

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Post by algae888 Fri Aug 01, 2014 12:08 am

tonights gfs and nam are both pretty much dry for fri and sat. gfs has nyc and west almost no rain for the weekend. we will see which model caves but liking that both gfs and nam dry for sat.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Aug 01, 2014 12:54 am

Here's what you can expect this weekend:

Today: Clouds around with showers in the afternoon. Could become steady overnight into early Saturday morning. 

Saturday: Scattered showers in the morning leading to partial clearing in the afternoon. Then another chance of showers Saturday evening into the overnight hours. 

Sunday: More rain showers in the morning. Could be steady at times. Possible clearing late afternoon. Otherwise, mainly cloudy. 

Total rainfall .50-1.00 inch. Nothing to get worked up about.

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Post by mailman Fri Aug 01, 2014 7:48 pm

Hi,

July weather in Bergenfield...

Average Temp... 76.5F ( 0.5F ) above normal.
Max Temp......... 94F on the 8th
Min Temp.......... 57F on the 30th.
Precip was 4.66" ( 0.23" above normal )
I recorded 90F + days.

Take it easy,

Rudy
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Aug 02, 2014 1:58 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Yuck plain old rain when im going to a concert at the PNC amphetheater Saturday night dang.  This stinks.
Jman we might ok for the concert what you think
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