NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Page 1 of 5 1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next

Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jul 10, 2014 11:14 am

I know it is a little too early for a thread, but man oh man does the atmosphere early next week look ripe for very dangerous storms. 


Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Day48prob

SPC has already issued a Day 6 watch, which is pretty rare for them. 

This is what's happening in a nutshell: 

There is a very unstable airmass in the southeast US. In the northeast US, including the Great Lakes region, a PV (polar vortex) is set to track into our region. When the unstable airmass and the PV combine, it is a recipe for disaster. 

It is still early and I will give out more info as the week goes on. Stay tuned.


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:59 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jul 10, 2014 12:04 pm

And keep in mind what I said in the long range thread: This dip in the jet stream early next week is a direct result of the super typhoon recurving the western Pacific.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 10, 2014 12:32 pm

OMG Frank, when I saw this this morning I thought the exact same thing (you read my mind, I was going to ask you to open a discussion on this), guess I prove to myself I know more about summer weather than winter (although learned a lot from you guys over the winter).  Yeah it is rare for SPC to show a area on the day 4-8 range, let alone day 6.  Bottom of page says 30% or greater in  a 25 mile area which tells me we may have a moderate or higher area for dangerous severe weather.  Am checking out models now but when you say recipe for disaster do you mean worse than the damaging storms on Tuesday, and maybe a likelihood of tornados?  I know its far off but I will be keeping a eye on this too and giving any info I can help with. BTW could this possibly turn into a PDS day?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 10, 2014 12:50 pm

Wowsa, look at the Euro cape at that time frame, yikes. Doesnt look to be as far north as SPC is calling for their area but of course this will change as all models do. Frank noted the GFS, seems to have the cape high in the late parts of the day on 14 and 15th, so are we looking at a possible two day double whammy event?

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Cape_710
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jul 10, 2014 2:16 pm

It is worth noting that we are still pretty far out and a whole lot can change. It is often (and we see this in the winter) that the PV is over modeled and the severe weather becomes isolated, which is better than an outbreak.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 10, 2014 3:33 pm

True enough. We will have a better idea once we get to the 3 day timeframe, and actually SPC maps change even the day of so its kinda a who knows at this pt BUT def something to watch.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 10, 2014 10:37 pm

WOW GFS Cape values def high enough for some crazy storms on the 14th.

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Cape_110
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jul 10, 2014 10:38 pm

And Tues, which is supposedly the day of most interest.

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Gfs_ca10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jul 11, 2014 5:19 am

when we severe weather are we talking about t storms or are we talking possibility of tornadoes or just a lot of rain
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by jmanley32 Fri Jul 11, 2014 6:40 am

Well that was a quick thread, they have moved the threat to day 4 and way south? What changed Frank or do you think it might go north again?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jul 11, 2014 3:49 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Well that was a quick thread, they have moved the threat to day 4 and way south?  What changed Frank or do you think it might go north again?

They will keep updating that graphic based on what the models are saying. Models continue to differ with the timing of the PV and how far north and east the unstable air mass gets before it gets cut off. We should know much more by Sunday. Tuesday still looks like the day for the best chance of severe weather

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by jmanley32 Fri Jul 11, 2014 6:14 pm

Okay thanks Frank, I figured but it was such a drastic change I was surprised. Looking at the models cape still looks to be quite high 1500-2500+ j/kg. I know thats not the only factor but def plays a roll. Still learning here.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by algae888 Fri Jul 11, 2014 6:58 pm

frank after this threat early next week there looks to be a 4-5 day period of absolutely fantastic weather. big Canadian HP controlling our weather. no rain or wind temps in the low 80's. can't ask for better summer time weather than that.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jul 12, 2014 9:07 am

@algae888 wrote:frank after this threat early next week there looks to be a 4-5 day period of absolutely fantastic weather. big Canadian HP controlling our weather. no rain or wind temps in the low 80's. can't ask for better summer time weather than that.

Absolutely! Can't wait. Probably looking at day time highs in the upper 70's to low 80's from Wednesday-Friday with low humidity. Night time lows could get into the 50's

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by jmanley32 Sat Jul 12, 2014 2:37 pm

Latest rainfall map shows 3-4 inches from the 12-17th, all being from monday and tuesday mostly. Any updates on the severe threat Frank, still looking at a outbreak or will it be isolated? Or we will not know till tomorrow.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jul 12, 2014 5:28 pm

The Euro is most bullish right now with the severe weather. It takes the warm front right through central NJ

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 S28rpt

You can see CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is pretty high, around 1,500 and near 2,000 in western NJ. Those values are conducive enough for severe weather. 

Right now, I think the threat of heavy rain is looking likely. Potentially up to 2 inches or more. I'm going to wait until tomorrow to comment on severe weather.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by jmanley32 Sun Jul 13, 2014 5:14 am

You sure are right about the rain/flooding thing, they upped the raifall again through the 18th but looking at models thats pretty much all from Mon-Tues sheesh. Add severe storms to that (although SPC has now removed us from any severe area for Tuesday but moved us in for Monday?) Will be interesting to see what unfolds.

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 P120i10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jul 13, 2014 3:42 pm

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Day2otlk_1730

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS/LOWER OH/TN
VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/SRN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
OZARKS...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. MORE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA.

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL OCCUR MONDAY
AS A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM
ONTARIO/QUEBEC SWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A SERIES
OF IMPULSES OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE E/SEWD AT THE
CREST OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A
PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY AFTN...WHILE A PRE-EXISTING SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...REINFORCED BY PRIOR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...WILL BE IN
PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/OZARKS.

...OZARKS/LOWER OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NEW
ENGLAND...
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING
COMPOSITE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EARLY MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY
INFLUENCE SUBSEQUENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...AN
INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED COINCIDENT WITH AFTN HEATING
ALONG BOTH THE SWD-SURGING COLD FRONT AND THE PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARY
AS 60-90 METER HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND HEATING OF A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S DEW POINTS WILL
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND LINE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A FEW REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL MOST LIKELY OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION WHERE GREATER
INSTABILITY/STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE PRESENT. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
WAS EXTENDED NWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE 35-40 KTS OF SHEAR
WILL BE PRESENT BY AFTN AND HEATING OF LOWER 70S DEW POINTS WILL
SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY
WITH TSTMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THIS AREA. BOTH NAM AND GFS
GUIDANCE DEPICT SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SFC LOW THAT MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR A TORNADO
WITH ANY SEMI-DISCRETE TSTM.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jul 13, 2014 3:44 pm

Watch tonight for a possible thunderstorm, not expected to be severe. It now looks like tomorrow afternoon into the evening will be best chance for severe weather, not Tuesday as originally expected. 

Hail, Flash flooding, damaging winds, isolated tornadoes ARE POSSIBLE tomorrow for our area.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by jmanley32 Sun Jul 13, 2014 4:56 pm

Frank may we see the specifics (shown tomorrow) like wind, hail tornadoes (although im fine without those) be higher than 15%?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by jmanley32 Sun Jul 13, 2014 8:27 pm

Looks like the severe threat has pushed further east than expected for some. Watch just issued for most of NJ. NYC metro and surrounding only places without at this point.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:16 am

Looks like they expanded the area of severe potential and have a small area for tornados in a unusual spot encompasing NYC also, albeit only 2%. but you do not usually see alot higher than that and they still happen. Rainfall as Frank said looks to be substantial 2- as much as locally 5 inches doesnt appear to be out of thenquestion looking at various maps etc. And NWS for my local area still has severe potential for Tuesday, gusty winds and heavy rain main potential. Looks like some small pop ups are already coming up. The sun needs to come out though form real instability. Humid enbough, we get that sun and watch out!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:22 am

Does anyone know where to find up to date CAPE and shear maps? Not models but current conditions like the radar?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:30 am

I got power back but Verizon is having an issue so I have no TV, Internet, or Phone. I'm using my cell phone for now. Look for storms similiar to last night, if not stronger, to effect the area between 4-11pm today.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:34 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Does anyone know where to find up to date CAPE and shear maps?  Not models but current conditions like the radar?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16

Fool around with the tool bar on the right hand side and on the top. It takes getting used to but once you learn it its very helpful

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 5 1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum