Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
+7
essexcountypete
Quietace
Dtone
algae888
skinsfan1177
jmanley32
Frank_Wx
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
I got power back but Verizon is having an issue so I have no TV, Internet, or Phone. I'm using my cell phone for now. Look for storms similiar to last night, if not stronger, to effect the area between 4-11pm today.
Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
jmanley32 wrote:Does anyone know where to find up to date CAPE and shear maps? Not models but current conditions like the radar?
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16
Fool around with the tool bar on the right hand side and on the top. It takes getting used to but once you learn it its very helpful
Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
What may save us from the strong storms is the current cloud cover. Cloud cover stabilizes the atmosphere which prevents severe cells from developing.
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
Got a burst of heavy rain
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
Yeah the sun not coming out is a big deterant, still humid but not terrible.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
Really dtone? I am in south bronx, and not a drop. Talk about localized.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
Yeah on radar it was a small t storm..from Teneck NJ to along Bronx Westchester border to Long Island sound. The heart of it was Yonkers to New Rochelle
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
Severe t-storm watch issued. And they placed us under slight again for tomorrow, so appears that Frank was right about tomorrow, just didn't expect today. Meso scale discussion calling for 1000-2000 cape and possible rotation which is probably why they have 2% chance tornados. The sun came out for a minute and the temop shot up so quickly. If we get a full sun break-through things will really destablize but SPC saying the cloud cover isn't affecting it that much. The storms over PA look to be really blowing up and if the area here is more destabilized then we are probably in for a ride later.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
Update:
A decent amount of sun is out in northern NJ. I just drove along the Turnpike and it was pretty sunny. Going off my "feel" test, I think conditions are pretty ripe for some strong storms. Like I said earlier, expect that time period to be between 4-11pm, sooner for western areas.
A decent amount of sun is out in northern NJ. I just drove along the Turnpike and it was pretty sunny. Going off my "feel" test, I think conditions are pretty ripe for some strong storms. Like I said earlier, expect that time period to be between 4-11pm, sooner for western areas.
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
Sun still not out here in NYC (or Bronx anyways) maybe the clouds are breaking from west to east. Must be pretty hot Frank.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
You can see the greatest instability is in southern NJ and SE PA, but its building north as the sum comes out.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s16/sbcp/sbcp.gif?1405359078337
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s16/sbcp/sbcp.gif?1405359078337
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
Those maps are a bit confusing but I am guessing you just follow the lines to the number so the area is like 2000+ cape is what it looks like to me. Sun breaking out here now, should be seeing storms firing further east soon I would think.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
GFS showing much more CAPE into NYC area tomorrow, wonder if it will be worse tomorrow than today.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
Radar showing storms developing to our southwest heading our direction. Looks like a cell developed and is stationed over the Jersey shore as well, localized flooding for sure over there
http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif
http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
Storms firing up to west of me fir awhile now
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
Looks like Long Branch and east Freehold getting the bulk of it for now
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
Frank is this going to extend north into NYC area? Seems the CAPE is staying south per that map and the weather outside is not that hot, sun has peeped a few times. Watch is only till 8pm, could it be extended? Or is this going to cutoff quickly?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
The stuff along the jersey shore will not extend that far north.
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
No any of it I mean, Looks to be so far west it wouldnt make it here by the end of the watch period. Watching that map you sent me the 2000-3000 cape is still heading northward ever so slowly. 3000 is pretty dang high.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
jmanley32 wrote:No any of it I mean, Looks to be so far west it wouldnt make it here by the end of the watch period. Watching that map you sent me the 2000-3000 cape is still heading northward ever so slowly. 3000 is pretty dang high.
Again, thunderstorms are not guranteed for any area. Even if they are widespread, they could still miss your or anyone's area. When SPC or myself issue a watch, it just means conditions are prone for a t-storm, or severe storm. Looking at radar, a good amount of storms are moving east-northeast. Remain patient.
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
LOL, ok sorry i am off.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
Getting nailed at home right now....of course I'm not there....shocking
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
Quietace wrote:Getting nailed at home right now....of course I'm not there....shocking
Haha, I was looking at the radar and thinking of you. Probably flash flooding
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
I got pics hold up. Nvm I can't do it on my phone. I promise their cool lol
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
Martells tiki bar got struck by lightning and and had a fire lol
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
Ace not much rain here yet it has missed us for the most part so far
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15
Getting hit here now
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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