NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Page 2 of 5 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next

Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:37 am

What may save us from the strong storms is the current cloud cover. Cloud cover stabilizes the atmosphere which prevents severe cells from developing.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Dtone Mon Jul 14, 2014 11:16 am

Got a burst of heavy rain

Dtone
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 1738
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-08-26
Location : Bronx, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 14, 2014 12:47 pm

Yeah the sun not coming out is a big deterant, still humid but not terrible.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 14, 2014 12:49 pm

Really dtone? I am in south bronx, and not a drop. Talk about localized.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Dtone Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:06 pm

Yeah on radar it was a small t storm..from Teneck NJ to along Bronx Westchester border to Long Island sound. The heart of it was Yonkers to New Rochelle

Dtone
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 1738
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-08-26
Location : Bronx, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:36 pm

Severe t-storm watch issued.  And they placed us under slight again for tomorrow, so appears that Frank was right about tomorrow, just didn't expect today.  Meso scale discussion calling for 1000-2000 cape and possible rotation which is probably why they have 2% chance tornados.  The sun came out for a minute and the temop shot up so quickly.  If we get a full sun break-through things will really destablize but SPC saying the cloud cover isn't affecting it that much. The storms over PA look to be really blowing up and if the area here is more destabilized then we are probably in for a ride later.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:09 pm

Update:

A decent amount of sun is out in northern NJ. I just drove along the Turnpike and it was pretty sunny. Going off my "feel" test, I think conditions are pretty ripe for some strong storms. Like I said earlier, expect that time period to be between 4-11pm, sooner for western areas.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:10 pm

Sun still not out here in NYC (or Bronx anyways) maybe the clouds are breaking from west to east. Must be pretty hot Frank.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:11 pm

You can see the greatest instability is in southern NJ and SE PA, but its building north as the sum comes out.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s16/sbcp/sbcp.gif?1405359078337

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:27 pm

Those maps are a bit confusing but I am guessing you just follow the lines to the number so the area is like 2000+ cape is what it looks like to me. Sun breaking out here now, should be seeing storms firing further east soon I would think.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:09 pm

GFS showing much more CAPE into NYC area tomorrow, wonder if it will be worse tomorrow than today.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:53 pm

Radar showing storms developing to our southwest heading our direction. Looks like a cell developed and is stationed over the Jersey shore as well, localized flooding for sure over there

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:05 pm

Storms firing up to west of me fir awhile now
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:06 pm

Looks like Long Branch and east Freehold getting the bulk of it for now

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:19 pm

Frank is this going to extend north into NYC area? Seems the CAPE is staying south per that map and the weather outside is not that hot, sun has peeped a few times. Watch is only till 8pm, could it be extended? Or is this going to cutoff quickly?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:22 pm

The stuff along the jersey shore will not extend that far north.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:22 pm

No any of it I mean, Looks to be so far west it wouldnt make it here by the end of the watch period. Watching that map you sent me the 2000-3000 cape is still heading northward ever so slowly. 3000 is pretty dang high.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:28 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:No any of it I mean, Looks to be so far west it wouldnt make it here by the end of the watch period. Watching that map you sent me the 2000-3000 cape is still heading northward ever so slowly.  3000 is pretty dang high.

Again, thunderstorms are not guranteed for any area. Even if they are widespread, they could still miss your or anyone's area. When SPC or myself issue a watch, it just means conditions are prone for a t-storm, or severe storm. Looking at radar, a good amount of storms are moving east-northeast. Remain patient.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:32 pm

LOL, ok sorry i am off.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Quietace Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:39 pm

Getting nailed at home right now....of course I'm not there....shocking  Mad

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:43 pm

@Quietace wrote:Getting nailed at home right now....of course I'm not there....shocking  Mad

Haha, I was looking at the radar and thinking of you. Probably flash flooding

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Quietace Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:45 pm

I got pics hold up. Nvm I can't do it on my phone. I promise their cool lol

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Quietace Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:54 pm

Martells tiki bar got struck by lightning and and had a fire lol

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Jul 14, 2014 5:11 pm

Ace not much rain here yet it has missed us for the most part so far
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Quietace Mon Jul 14, 2014 5:59 pm

Getting hit here now

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 2 Empty Re: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 5 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum