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Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

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essexcountypete
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:30 am

I got power back but Verizon is having an issue so I have no TV, Internet, or Phone. I'm using my cell phone for now. Look for storms similiar to last night, if not stronger, to effect the area between 4-11pm today.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:34 am

jmanley32 wrote:Does anyone know where to find up to date CAPE and shear maps?  Not models but current conditions like the radar?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16

Fool around with the tool bar on the right hand side and on the top. It takes getting used to but once you learn it its very helpful

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:37 am

What may save us from the strong storms is the current cloud cover. Cloud cover stabilizes the atmosphere which prevents severe cells from developing.

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Post by Dtone Mon Jul 14, 2014 11:16 am

Got a burst of heavy rain

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 14, 2014 12:47 pm

Yeah the sun not coming out is a big deterant, still humid but not terrible.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 14, 2014 12:49 pm

Really dtone? I am in south bronx, and not a drop. Talk about localized.
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Post by Dtone Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:06 pm

Yeah on radar it was a small t storm..from Teneck NJ to along Bronx Westchester border to Long Island sound. The heart of it was Yonkers to New Rochelle

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:36 pm

Severe t-storm watch issued.  And they placed us under slight again for tomorrow, so appears that Frank was right about tomorrow, just didn't expect today.  Meso scale discussion calling for 1000-2000 cape and possible rotation which is probably why they have 2% chance tornados.  The sun came out for a minute and the temop shot up so quickly.  If we get a full sun break-through things will really destablize but SPC saying the cloud cover isn't affecting it that much. The storms over PA look to be really blowing up and if the area here is more destabilized then we are probably in for a ride later.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:09 pm

Update:

A decent amount of sun is out in northern NJ. I just drove along the Turnpike and it was pretty sunny. Going off my "feel" test, I think conditions are pretty ripe for some strong storms. Like I said earlier, expect that time period to be between 4-11pm, sooner for western areas.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:10 pm

Sun still not out here in NYC (or Bronx anyways) maybe the clouds are breaking from west to east. Must be pretty hot Frank.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:11 pm

You can see the greatest instability is in southern NJ and SE PA, but its building north as the sum comes out.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s16/sbcp/sbcp.gif?1405359078337

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:27 pm

Those maps are a bit confusing but I am guessing you just follow the lines to the number so the area is like 2000+ cape is what it looks like to me. Sun breaking out here now, should be seeing storms firing further east soon I would think.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:09 pm

GFS showing much more CAPE into NYC area tomorrow, wonder if it will be worse tomorrow than today.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:53 pm

Radar showing storms developing to our southwest heading our direction. Looks like a cell developed and is stationed over the Jersey shore as well, localized flooding for sure over there

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:05 pm

Storms firing up to west of me fir awhile now
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:06 pm

Looks like Long Branch and east Freehold getting the bulk of it for now

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:19 pm

Frank is this going to extend north into NYC area? Seems the CAPE is staying south per that map and the weather outside is not that hot, sun has peeped a few times. Watch is only till 8pm, could it be extended? Or is this going to cutoff quickly?
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:22 pm

The stuff along the jersey shore will not extend that far north.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:22 pm

No any of it I mean, Looks to be so far west it wouldnt make it here by the end of the watch period. Watching that map you sent me the 2000-3000 cape is still heading northward ever so slowly. 3000 is pretty dang high.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:28 pm

jmanley32 wrote:No any of it I mean, Looks to be so far west it wouldnt make it here by the end of the watch period. Watching that map you sent me the 2000-3000 cape is still heading northward ever so slowly.  3000 is pretty dang high.

Again, thunderstorms are not guranteed for any area. Even if they are widespread, they could still miss your or anyone's area. When SPC or myself issue a watch, it just means conditions are prone for a t-storm, or severe storm. Looking at radar, a good amount of storms are moving east-northeast. Remain patient.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:32 pm

LOL, ok sorry i am off.
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Post by Quietace Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:39 pm

Getting nailed at home right now....of course I'm not there....shocking  Mad
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:43 pm

Quietace wrote:Getting nailed at home right now....of course I'm not there....shocking  Mad

Haha, I was looking at the radar and thinking of you. Probably flash flooding

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Post by Quietace Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:45 pm

I got pics hold up. Nvm I can't do it on my phone. I promise their cool lol
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Post by Quietace Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:54 pm

Martells tiki bar got struck by lightning and and had a fire lol
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Jul 14, 2014 5:11 pm

Ace not much rain here yet it has missed us for the most part so far
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Post by Quietace Mon Jul 14, 2014 5:59 pm

Getting hit here now
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