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Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 14, 2014 6:00 pm

The humidity has shot up through the roof here.
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Post by Dtone Mon Jul 14, 2014 6:11 pm

You getting anything jmanley? Looks like some good storms pushing thru Westchester. More so along I 287. A piece might extend south into Yonkers

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 14, 2014 6:28 pm

It's putridly humid and I noted that the cape just shot up into the area. It getting a bit dark out, and a little movement in the trees like somethings coming. That line is north of here, I can hear it though. As it is hit and miss. The other storms if they hold together to the south and west will bring more of a chance here I think. Tomorrow also looks potential too.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jul 14, 2014 6:42 pm

From the radar looks like all that is going to converge and bond together and give me one heck of a rain event. Not a whole lot of lightning with these which I am kinda surprised.
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Post by algae888 Mon Jul 14, 2014 7:03 pm

rain just starting here. however no thunder, lightning or wind. just looks like we will get flooding rains.
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Post by essexcountypete Mon Jul 14, 2014 7:57 pm

wow, monsoon here in Bloomfield

not a lot of t & l or even wind but rain til the gutters are clear but still overflowing
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Post by amugs Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:22 pm

guys,

Up here in West Dover VT - had a nasty round of thunder storms up here last night and looking at the radar everything is south of me. Nasty round of t-storms at home - Zoo can you confirm? Mugs

Sun and Clouds and 81* with 42% humidity - woo hoooo.

Keep the faith their folks.

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Post by algae888 Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:26 pm

last 3hrs official rain forecast amounts: CP .23, LAG .08, JFK .33, NWK .28, and white plains 1.24. other than WP not impressive so far.
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Post by algae888 Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:50 pm

radar is blossoming and I have heavy rain now.
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Post by algae888 Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:53 pm

heavy rain with no lightning and wind and at night PERFECT!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jul 15, 2014 12:28 am

Today was fun. Tomorrow will be more of the same with maybe more rain for some areas. Storms may not be as severe, either. But we'll see.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:52 am

From what I heard this morning because the sun is breaking through earlier and storms are going to fire much earlier and could be just as strong or stronger.  Still a damaging wind and a hail threat with low chance tornados.  Was there a confirmed tornado in NJ last night?  I saw the warning.  Also up in Elmira NY, was there one there?  Frank you were right about one thing, a WET summer.  They really lowered the rain totals for the next 5 day, but I think totals will be higher than a ince or two in many of the storms later.  Looks to be possibly a fun ride home.  Sun been peaking out too already as opposed to yesterday.  Fire em up and thats for those maps Frank I am getting the jist of at least the CAPE Part. Just checked and CAPE values already into the 2000 j/kg in jersey and 1000-1500 up into NYC area and its only 9am.  Am thinking it will be a rockin day.  I was at least hoping for some lightning last night but just a few distant flashes.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Jul 15, 2014 9:01 am; edited 2 times in total
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:54 am

Hey Algae yeah, the rain was refreshing but it was still too humid to open the windows to hear it.  I had to go out to get something fro mthe car and it was POURING around 10:30-11:00pm. I am thinking storms may be on the more severe side for our area today as things will fire closer to the coast than yesterday and much earlier i nthe day according to the news and SPC. Just noted SPC has us at 30% today, notating my idea of stronger storms today.  Again this is my opinion in no way am I discounting t your thoughts Frank : ), Although you spoke last night you thinking the same now? May end up beng afterall that SPC was right last week and today will be a possible outbreak. 30% is pretty high and like a week or two ago the storms got pretty violenmt when they had 30% for wind over central PA and NY when that bow came through.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Jul 15, 2014 9:14 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jul 15, 2014 9:12 am

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 3 Severe10
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Post by Dtone Tue Jul 15, 2014 9:16 am

Alot more sunshine today

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jul 15, 2014 9:30 am

Yeah dtone we know thats creates lots of instability as I said CAPE is already on the rise much higher than yesterday, I could see the 3000 j/kg extending much further north, being the CAPE is already so far north. Sun is warming things up fast.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jul 15, 2014 9:35 am

Initial thoughts this morning is there could be severe cells that develop ahead of the line of storms currently working through central PA. That line will reach our area late this afternoon. The cells could develop well ahead of it, perhaps early afternoon. Threat today is wind / hail / isolated tornadoes.

Probably at least 2+ inches of rain today for most people.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jul 15, 2014 9:53 am

Frank you saw my post the chances are more elevated today, and CAPE is already flying north on the increase 2000+. Of course I probably won't be home for storms this afternoon where they are always better to watch as I have a clear view of skyline. Hopefully the line brings some good storms too, might be a bow even. Alas stuck at work, wish i was home.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jul 15, 2014 10:46 am

Yea, instability is rising fast today. Could make for an interesting afternoon.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:00 am

Wowwee,hot sun been on and off, CAPE almost 2000 in NYC area south jersey already seeing 3000+ CAPE, def a interesting afternoon, I think there will be much more widespread damaging wind than yesterday and def flooding.  Frank once again knows his stuff and even when the SPC thought yesterday would be the main day now they back to today.  Frank is my main source of info, BTW Frank I mention the site to all my friends who are interested in weather blogs up here.  I do not do that for most blogs as most are just arguments and stuff that doesnt make sense, I like that yoursd are almost all observatory or based on strong facts and not fantasy land modeling, although we all know we get giddy when we see a big snowstorm in the future.
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Post by essexcountypete Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:19 am

Seems it wasn't a tornado in SNJ yesterday...

http://www.burlingtoncountytimes.com/news/local/weather-service-probing-possible-tornado-damage/article_bdaef44e-3de5-5a48-b23d-35fdda423eda.html
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Post by Quietace Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:51 am

@essexcountypete wrote:Seems it wasn't a tornado in SNJ yesterday...

http://www.burlingtoncountytimes.com/news/local/weather-service-probing-possible-tornado-damage/article_bdaef44e-3de5-5a48-b23d-35fdda423eda.html
Yeah just straight line wind damage. It's Good thing

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jul 15, 2014 12:46 pm

CAPE is shooting through the roof almost 1700 in NYC area, and pushing 3000 in south and central NJ.Storms should be firing soon, I do not see much in the area yet.

I hear there will be two rounds or storms? One earlier this afternoon and one this evening is this true? If so what time is the most concentrated area or line of storms going to be around?
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jul 15, 2014 1:45 pm

Here we go...

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 3 65938_770416783010083_8996183778957771547_n

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jul 15, 2014 1:54 pm

Flash flood warning for counties in red

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 7/14-7/15 - Page 3 Usnj

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