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October 2014 Obs and Discussions

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Post by amugs Wed Oct 01, 2014 10:37 am

Cloudy and rain to my east but dry once again - dry begets dry - thank god for the cool nights soon i will be cursing the cold nights more so the bitter mornings - HAHAHA!

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:11 pm

Ahhh October. One of my favorite months for many reasons. Primarily, the Fall Foliage begins to kick into full gear. If anyone has scenic pictures they would like to share, post them in this thread. I will try and get some good ones. Secondly, we get our first taste of "cold" weather for the season. Or at least, much cooler than what we have been use to lately.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:16 pm

September turned out near normal for our area, slightly above along the coast into LI

October 2014 Obs and Discussions Ncep_cfsv2_120_t2anom_usa__1_(1)

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:32 pm

Here were the September temp departures for the area. I said +1 to +2 earlier in the month, so right on target:

NYC: +1.7
LGA: +1.3
JFK: +1.6
BDR: +1.6
ISP: +1.8
EWR: +1.6

ABE: +2.0
PHL: +1.4
TTN: +1.3

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:33 pm

October 2014 Obs and Discussions 2je47e9

That WxBell graphic seems to be wrong. This one is accurate

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:45 pm

Lets take a look at what the October pattern may look like. The next set of graphics are from the EURO weeklies, while not always accurate, give us a representation of what we could be looking at.

October 2014 Obs and Discussions Euro_weekly_1

So this is around the 5th, which we already know will be cooler than normal due to the trough coming in behind the cold front. Still some ridging in the west. Those positive heights south and east of Greenland have more to do with the cut-off trough in the east. Technically, that is not a -NAO or anything like that. It is a progressive pattern. These upper air anomalies are constantly moving. The one thing that has been persistent lately has been the +PNA.

October 2014 Obs and Discussions Euro_weekly_2

As we enter mid-October, the EURO suggests the progressive pattern to continue. I like the fact the North Pac and Alaska are warm...helps the +SST pool in the EPO region. As you can see, no blocking still in the east. We look to be average to above due to the trough undercutting the positive heights in the west, forcing slight ridging along the east coast.

October 2014 Obs and Discussions Euro_weekly_3

By the end of the month, much of the country is experiencing above normal heights. But it still remains a zonal flow. This has been the theme of the H5 pattern of late. Very fast-paced. Much like my typing right now as I am on 4 cups of espresso. It is ok, my fellow colleagues in this computer lab right now think I am only slightly weird. (Hello Carolina, I see you staring at my screen and you will now become famous on a couple of weather forums).

October 2014 Obs and Discussions EURO_NH

EURO Operational model keeps things cool into next week. Canada is very warm and the cooler than normal heights are suppressing south. I do expect this to change as a series of trough's enter the western US and disrupt the +PNA/-EPO pattern out there.

October 2014 Obs and Discussions EURO_Ao

This pic of the AO gives me a warm feeling inside, just knowing that winter is not too far away. Second half of this weekend into early next week should feel nice.

October culprit?

I am going to go with +1 to +2 once again, like September. Though I can see how things end up more on the 0 to +1 side.


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Post by amugs Wed Oct 01, 2014 2:57 pm

Is Carolina cute or hot? If the latter use that EYEtalian Mojo kid and go for it!

Once again maps not posting kid.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:24 pm

@amugs wrote:Is Carolina cute or hot? If the latter use that EYEtalian Mojo kid and go for it!

Once again maps not posting kid.

I had no prob seeing the maps. I agree with Mugs..go for it. Ask her if she wouldn't mind if you showed her your 1000-500mb thickness and precipitation chart. geek

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 01, 2014 6:29 pm

@amugs wrote:Is Carolina cute or hot? If the latter use that EYEtalian Mojo kid and go for it!

Once again maps not posting kid.

They should work this time, I hosted them from an image hosting site. Is anyone else having issues? Hopefully not. 
@sroc4 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Is Carolina cute or hot? If the latter use that EYEtalian Mojo kid and go for it!

Once again maps not posting kid.

I had no prob seeing the maps.  I agree with Mugs..go for it.  Ask her if she wouldn't mind if you showed her your 1000-500mb thickness and precipitation chart.  geek

I lol'd. She was just reading what I was writing. I noticed from the corner of my eye. She found it funny Laughing

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Post by HectorO Wed Oct 01, 2014 10:00 pm

Hmmm, It's one of my favorite months too. But Sundays temps almost look normal for my area. A lot of 70s to mid 70s next week. And after all the Euro at one point was agreeing on a warmer October.
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Post by Isotherm Wed Oct 01, 2014 10:25 pm

Just to get everyone in the fall mood, here are some photos I took at the peak of last year's foliage. Thought it was a pretty good season actually. Hope we can top it.



October 2014 Obs and Discussions Img_0510



October 2014 Obs and Discussions Img_0512




October 2014 Obs and Discussions Img_0610



October 2014 Obs and Discussions Img_0611




October 2014 Obs and Discussions Img_0612

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 01, 2014 10:28 pm

Not seeing any pics Frank?  Strange.

Once I made this post when it refreshed they showed huh. Nice pics!
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 03, 2014 12:06 am

Good news: Rain on Saturday will start earlier leading to an earlier end time. Possibly end by 2pm.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 03, 2014 10:17 pm

October 2014 Obs and Discussions RAD_MOS_REG_NE_WINTER_ANI

Very unimpressive radar. At this rate, the rain may clear out even sooner than expected. We will see how things look in the morning.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 03, 2014 10:18 pm

Check out the snow falling in upper midwest!

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 03, 2014 10:49 pm

I noticed that Frank, it looks to be breaking up big time, might we see no rain in the morning except maybe the wee hours a passing shower?
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 03, 2014 11:03 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I noticed that Frank, it looks to be breaking up big time, might we see no rain in the morning except maybe the wee hours a passing shower?

Maybe. There is some energy left behind though which is what worries me. But we will see in the morning.

In other news, I started gathering data and information for my winter outlook today. Still expecting a release date the week before Thanksgiving.


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Post by docstox12 Sat Oct 04, 2014 5:31 am

Radar does look scattered.Did see some blue for the first time in the mid west! Don't think that 1/2 to 3/4 inch rainfall predicted by Accuweather is going to happen.Looks like something for next Tues-Weds.We'll see.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Oct 04, 2014 6:14 am

Doesnt look like much rain for the area. Looking forward to a chilly night and a fire
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Oct 04, 2014 8:27 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I noticed that Frank, it looks to be breaking up big time, might we see no rain in the morning except maybe the wee hours a passing shower?

Maybe. There is some energy left behind though which is what worries me. But we will see in the morning.

In other news, I started gathering data and information for my winter outlook today. Still expecting a release date the week before Thanksgiving.  

Looking forward to it Frank. I'm eagerly watching our developing EL Nino to see how strong it gets. Could be a big key to our winter. Right now I think we reach weak criteria by the new year.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 04, 2014 10:05 am

Raining on and off pretty hard here. Glad I didn't plan my outside things today. Yeah I noted something next week, and then things get interesting as that tropical system is shown to start developing in carribbean in about 6 days. May be marked on 5 day on NHC in next few days. This mornings GFS showed a monster front from a low heading into canada and a much weaker system from the tropics. Still a lot of time and things to look at.
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Post by algae888 Sat Oct 04, 2014 10:58 am

Yeah jman Raining pretty hard here have over a half inch of rain in the last hour. roads have a lot of water on them because of all the leaves on the ground. rain should end by early afternoon maybe salvage half the day
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 04, 2014 10:59 am

For those of u who thought we wouldn't get alot of rain. Flood alert here and I would say we have had a inch or more in past 30 to 1hr. It's coming down crazy even flat roads have a half in of water covering them.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 04, 2014 11:00 am

Looks like u and me al.are in the jackpot today. Not that I enjoy.the rain when I'm going out.
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Post by Isotherm Sat Oct 04, 2014 11:09 am

0.60". Decent rain event here.

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