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October 2014 Obs and Discussions

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geigere1
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October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2014 Obs and Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 07, 2014 9:57 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Frank do you mean 7pm and getting out of of here by 10-11 pm. I hope that's the case we have a blood moon and eclipse at around 5 am be neat to see.

No, sorry. It is going to be raining in the morning.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 07, 2014 9:58 pm

Looks feisty

October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 5 RAD_MOS_REG_NE_WINTER_ANI


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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:05 pm

There were a ton of tornado warnings down south of Ohio in that area like 5 at one time earlier. Is that the area thats going to pivot into the area later that could give us a strong storm or two? First band is rotating in soon.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:13 pm

That line over Philly looks to be intensifying as it moves northeast, night effect NYC within an hour or so. And yea it looks like the main line over DC wants to pivot over us as well.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:15 pm

2am radar from HRRR

October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 5 HRRR-15MIN_Radar_ne_f240

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Post by Vinnydula Tue Oct 07, 2014 11:05 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Vinnydula wrote:I'll rather come here for the weather . I'm going camping this weekend up in Beaver pond. I see rain for Friday? How much? All day?

This Friday? No rain expected.

Thanks frank both weather bug and weather.com have rain for Friday - sat
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 07, 2014 11:13 pm

@Vinnydula wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Vinnydula wrote:I'll rather come here for the weather . I'm going camping this weekend up in Beaver pond. I see rain for Friday? How much? All day?

This Friday? No rain expected.

Thanks frank both weather bug and weather.com have rain for Friday - sat

Late Friday night or early Saturday morning may see a shower, but nothing sustained.

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Post by Vinnydula Tue Oct 07, 2014 11:35 pm

Thanks again Smile
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 07, 2014 11:35 pm

SPC now has NYC and east in slight area increased wind chances to 15% amd tornado to 5%, its actually pretty rare that I have seen a 5% for tornados in the area, especially this time of year.

October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 5 Spc_tu11
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 07, 2014 11:37 pm

Note the area that has 5% south of Ohio had those 5 tornado warnings all at once, so we could be in for something later, and yeah Frank that second line looks to be intensifying. Judging from the proximity of those areas for tornado chances south of ohio and the ones up here, if u did a rotation the area from ohio would pretty much meetup with our area. Wind Map:

October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 5 Wind_s11
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Oct 08, 2014 5:12 am

Rain in over feels nice out cant see lunar evkipse damn clouds lol
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Post by SNOW MAN Wed Oct 08, 2014 5:41 am

I only had 0.24 in of rain from the front passing through. Currently 54* with partly cloudy skies and a wind out of the West at 10-15mph.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:53 am

Rain ended much sooner than anticipated. Should turn out to be a nice day. Cooler also. Upper 60's to low 70's

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October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: October 2014 Obs and Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo Wed Oct 08, 2014 7:18 am

Another bust for NENJ, .2" with a few decent wind gusts and a rumble of thunder...

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Post by amugs Wed Oct 08, 2014 7:58 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:Another bust for NENJ,  .2"  with a few decent wind gusts and a rumble of thunder...

Ditto - .25" in the bucket with a 20 mph wind gust - slept through it all onto the next one??

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 08, 2014 8:24 am

Heh that was a bust everywhere, I slept all night not even really wet out heard no wind or thunder.
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Post by Isotherm Wed Oct 08, 2014 3:12 pm

The big story will probably be the coldest daytime temperatures of the autumn season thus far. We may have highs struggle through the mid to upper 50s on Saturday assuming overcast skies. Saturday night will become quite cold with frost possible N / W of NYC given strong surface high pressure. Definitely will feel autumnal this weekend. Weak wave of low pressure along the baroclinic zone will produce some rain, but nothing impressive.



October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 5 Ecmwf_10

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 08, 2014 3:56 pm

Moved this comment to tropics section as it really belongs there.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 08, 2014 4:26 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by HectorO Wed Oct 08, 2014 4:16 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Another bust for NENJ,  .2"  with a few decent wind gusts and a rumble of thunder...

More like predictable than a bust. Few of us the other day were saying it might have been overdone and it was. October forecasts are horrible. They seem to be every October. Not sure why.
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Post by HectorO Wed Oct 08, 2014 4:22 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Another bust for NENJ,  .2"  with a few decent wind gusts and a rumble of thunder...

More like predictable than a bust. Few of us the other day were saying it might have been overdone and it was. October forecasts are horrible. They seem to be every October. Not sure why.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 08, 2014 11:14 pm

October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 5 Ecmwf_t2max_neng_27

EURO still cutting off the front and bringing temps near 80 degrees next week

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Post by geigere1 Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:43 am

i see that saturday morning we are supposed to have some rain. I coach flag football in Bloomfield and had to cancel last week's game because of the potential for thunderstorms. Any chance I should cancel this week's game as well? It is being played at 9am. Any information is appreciated. Thanks!

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Post by amugs Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:52 am

@geigere1 wrote:i see that saturday morning we are supposed to have some rain.  I coach flag football in Bloomfield and had to cancel last week's game because of the potential for thunderstorms.  Any chance I should cancel this week's game as well?  It is being played at 9am. Any information is appreciated.  Thanks!

So does my son and I coach hi steam up in Westwood - we played last week in the downpour - we have the lightening detection system on the field which is awesome .

Rain looks to move out by about 10ish if i am reading time on the models right - 15 z is 10 Am or noon anyone ??

NAM - take it with a grain of salt at this point though - this model should be only used 48hrs and in IMO _ I know we are at that but just had to post it

October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 5 93GvobJ

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 09, 2014 11:44 am

@geigere1 wrote:i see that saturday morning we are supposed to have some rain.  I coach flag football in Bloomfield and had to cancel last week's game because of the potential for thunderstorms.  Any chance I should cancel this week's game as well?  It is being played at 9am. Any information is appreciated.  Thanks!

It is going to be raining pretty steadily 7am on Saturday, with a stop time between 9-10am. I do not think you will have to worry about thunderstorms, but not sure the field will be conducive for playing because of saturation. Hope this helps.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 09, 2014 11:46 am

@amugs wrote:
@geigere1 wrote:i see that saturday morning we are supposed to have some rain.  I coach flag football in Bloomfield and had to cancel last week's game because of the potential for thunderstorms.  Any chance I should cancel this week's game as well?  It is being played at 9am. Any information is appreciated.  Thanks!

So does my son and I coach hi steam up in Westwood - we played last week in the downpour - we have the lightening detection system  on the field which is awesome .

Rain  looks to move out by about 10ish if i am reading  time on the models right - 15 z is 10 Am or noon anyone ??

NAM - take it with a grain of salt at this point though - this model should be only used 48hrs and in IMO _ I know we are at that but just had to post it

October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 5 93GvobJ

This should help Mugs

http://www.wsanford.com/~wsanford/activities/timeconv.html

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