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October 2014 Obs and Discussions

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Post by amugs Thu Oct 09, 2014 12:01 pm

Thanks Frank!

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 09, 2014 1:20 pm

Frank originally you said no rain Friday and Sat, so its back on the table I see. I jusr hope it clears up for midday as I have plans to be outdoors (but not playing sports lol). Looks like that storm next week (15th) is still progged to come our way, is it still something to watch. I noted with the 00z Euro that it pulled in the system 99L to enhance it some. Most of the models show 50-70+ kt 850mb winds so it looks like it could be pretty stormy. Any chance this becomes a coastal or is it way to far inland to head off the coast and up? Still 6 days away and if there is anything I have leanred we can hanve huighe changes this time of year i nthat amount of time.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 09, 2014 1:36 pm

I remember telling Vinny no rain this Friday, I don't recall saying anything about Saturday. The rain Friday won't move in until late afternoon so we should still salvage most of the day. Heaviest will come overnight. Between .25-.75 expected, near 1.00 along Jersey shore and southern NJ

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 09, 2014 1:45 pm

He had mentioned both Friday and sat. I guess I misread ur reply. Thanks
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Post by algae888 Thu Oct 09, 2014 4:36 pm

so far through 9 days of October we are 2* above normal. with a brief cool down coming this weekend followed by more warmth. this is with a -nao. +pna and a very -ao. plus no coastals. if this was jan. we would be screaming. this leads me to believe that these indicators are not driving our weather right now. so then what is driving the weather for us? any thoughts?
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Post by HectorO Thu Oct 09, 2014 4:43 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 6 Ecmwf_t2max_neng_27

EURO still cutting off the front and bringing temps near 80 degrees next week

Not gonna bite on it, just like last year after that 90º day we had and it forecasted a week away we would hit 90s or high 80s again and we didn't Didn't believe it last year and won't this year. I like the Euro during winter but during October I've seen it have a lot of nonsense fired. 70s high 60s I'm still sticking with.
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Post by docstox12 Thu Oct 09, 2014 4:45 pm

@algae888 wrote:so far through 9 days of October we are 2* above normal. with a brief cool down coming this weekend followed by more warmth. this is with a -nao. +pna and a very -ao. plus no coastals. if this was jan. we would be screaming. this leads me to believe that these indicators are not driving our weather right now. so then what is driving the weather for us? any thoughts?

With all of those lined up perfectly, it should be cold and rainy with one coastal after another.As technical as these indicators are, you are dealing with weather which is part of nature and will throw curveball after curveball to confuse the forecaster.A lot of times, it all works but here we see a divergence.The weather indicators remind me of my technical indicators I use to trade stocks.You are VERY happy with a 75% success ratio, but at times it all turns to rat crap and you pull your hair out.

When a trend is in effect (dry spell), it takes a lot to break it.Right now, that trend dominates and until I see a couple of 2 to 3 inch rainstorms hit here, I will believe it will stay dry.
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Post by algae888 Thu Oct 09, 2014 4:59 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:so far through 9 days of October we are 2* above normal. with a brief cool down coming this weekend followed by more warmth. this is with a -nao. +pna and a very -ao. plus no coastals. if this was jan. we would be screaming. this leads me to believe that these indicators are not driving our weather right now. so then what is driving the weather for us? any thoughts?

With all of those lined up perfectly, it should be cold and rainy with one coastal after another.As technical as these indicators are, you are dealing with weather which is part of nature and will throw curveball after curveball to confuse the forecaster.A lot of times, it all works but here we see a divergence.The weather indicators remind me of my technical indicators I use to trade stocks.You are VERY happy with a 75% success ratio, but at times it all turns to rat crap and you pull your hair out.

When a trend is in effect (dry spell), it takes a lot to break it.Right now, that trend dominates and until I see a couple of 2 to 3 inch rainstorms hit here, I will believe it will stay dry.

well doc that makes sense. I know coastals are very tricky even with all the stars aligned perfectly but I thought at least we would see some cold weather with such a low ao.
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Post by HectorO Thu Oct 09, 2014 5:18 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:so far through 9 days of October we are 2* above normal. with a brief cool down coming this weekend followed by more warmth. this is with a -nao. +pna and a very -ao. plus no coastals. if this was jan. we would be screaming. this leads me to believe that these indicators are not driving our weather right now. so then what is driving the weather for us? any thoughts?

With all of those lined up perfectly, it should be cold and rainy with one coastal after another.As technical as these indicators are, you are dealing with weather which is part of nature and will throw curveball after curveball to confuse the forecaster.A lot of times, it all works but here we see a divergence.The weather indicators remind me of my technical indicators I use to trade stocks.You are VERY happy with a 75% success ratio, but at times it all turns to rat crap and you pull your hair out.

When a trend is in effect (dry spell), it takes a lot to break it.Right now, that trend dominates and until I see a couple of 2 to 3 inch rainstorms hit here, I will believe it will stay dry.

well doc that makes sense. I know coastals are very tricky even with all the stars aligned perfectly but I thought at least we would see some cold weather with such a low ao.

As of right now high 60s like today tomorrow are normal for this time of year. Monday it was 37 where I live and thats below normal. Next week I don't think will be the warm up everyone is thinking and towards week 3 there looks to be some pretty cold temps below normal (even the highs). Perhaps mid to low 50s in some areas as a high.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Oct 09, 2014 7:30 pm

@algae888 wrote:so far through 9 days of October we are 2* above normal. with a brief cool down coming this weekend followed by more warmth. this is with a -nao. +pna and a very -ao. plus no coastals. if this was jan. we would be screaming. this leads me to believe that these indicators are not driving our weather right now. so then what is driving the weather for us? any thoughts?

Al I follow JB.  I take the good with the bad.  He has been talking about how the very same teleconnections that bring us cold and snow in the winter will bring us warm anomalies in the fall.  He was seeing this and talking about this for October since at least late August.  He notes that that these same teleconnections, (-AO, +PNA, and -NAO) will in fact cause more warmth in the east and the center of the colder anomalies further west during this time frame, and will shift more to what we are expecting in the colder months cold and stormy anomalies.  The reasoning in part is based on the wavelengths or amplitudes of the ridges and troughs that develop associated with the jet stream across the northern hemisphere.  In the colder months there is much more of a temp gradient therefore when the drivers set up these troughs and ridges they set up with more amplitude; therefore shorter wavelengths changing where the axis of these features are centered. If these teleconnections hold serve like this through the winter trust me we are in for a ride.  The question is will it stay like that.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by sroc4 Thu Oct 09, 2014 7:35 pm

Ill see if I can find some of the discussions that explain it better. If I can I will post it here

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by HectorO Thu Oct 09, 2014 8:33 pm

confused too tired to understand this but sounds good.
@sroc4 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:so far through 9 days of October we are 2* above normal. with a brief cool down coming this weekend followed by more warmth. this is with a -nao. +pna and a very -ao. plus no coastals. if this was jan. we would be screaming. this leads me to believe that these indicators are not driving our weather right now. so then what is driving the weather for us? any thoughts?

Al I follow JB.  I take the good with the bad.  He has been talking about how the very same teleconnections that bring us cold and snow in the winter will bring us warm anomalies in the fall.  He was seeing this and talking about this for October since at least late August.  He notes that that these same teleconnections, (-AO, +PNA, and -NAO) will in fact cause more warmth in the east and the center of the colder anomalies further west during this time frame, and will shift more to what we are expecting in the colder months cold and stormy anomalies.  The reasoning in part is based on the wavelengths or amplitudes of the ridges and troughs that develop associated with the jet stream across the northern hemisphere.  In the colder months there is much more of a temp gradient therefore when the drivers set up these troughs and ridges they set up with more amplitude; therefore shorter wavelengths changing where the axis of these features are centered. If these teleconnections hold serve like this through the winter trust me we are in for a ride.  The question is will it stay like that.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:10 pm

http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2014/10/rapid-autumn-transition.html

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:49 pm

IMO I still think some sort of decent storm system will hit us next Tues/Wed time frame, models have been pretty consistent with a very strong system rotating through (looks like frontal attached to a low going north) but if this came close and further south could become a coastal.  Maybe I am way off base.  Even if its just the front for instance right now accuwx has rain over 1 inch with winds gusting over 40mph. Being how bad the models have been though IMO things could change a lot between now and then. Granted I do not know enough about the logistics of it all but just seems to me the models have been calling for SOMETHING next week since the GFS had a hurricane phantom.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:58 pm

@algae888 wrote:so far through 9 days of October we are 2* above normal. with a brief cool down coming this weekend followed by more warmth. this is with a -nao. +pna and a very -ao. plus no coastals. if this was jan. we would be screaming. this leads me to believe that these indicators are not driving our weather right now. so then what is driving the weather for us? any thoughts?

@sroc4 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:so far through 9 days of October we are 2* above normal. with a brief cool down coming this weekend followed by more warmth. this is with a -nao. +pna and a very -ao. plus no coastals. if this was jan. we would be screaming. this leads me to believe that these indicators are not driving our weather right now. so then what is driving the weather for us? any thoughts?

Al I follow JB.  I take the good with the bad.  He has been talking about how the very same teleconnections that bring us cold and snow in the winter will bring us warm anomalies in the fall.  He was seeing this and talking about this for October since at least late August.  He notes that that these same teleconnections, (-AO, +PNA, and -NAO) will in fact cause more warmth in the east and the center of the colder anomalies further west during this time frame, and will shift more to what we are expecting in the colder months cold and stormy anomalies.  The reasoning in part is based on the wavelengths or amplitudes of the ridges and troughs that develop associated with the jet stream across the northern hemisphere.  In the colder months there is much more of a temp gradient therefore when the drivers set up these troughs and ridges they set up with more amplitude; therefore shorter wavelengths changing where the axis of these features are centered. If these teleconnections hold serve like this through the winter trust me we are in for a ride.  The question is will it stay like that.

What Sroc stated 100% correct. It all has to do with the magnitude of the wave lengths this time of season. This has an effect on how the teleconnections work. That is why a -NAO in the summer means virtually nothing. It is not until late Fall when the signals reach their true form.

Take a look at the image I just posted. It shows a +PNA / +AO / neutral NAO developing this weekend into next week (and possibly even beyond that). After the 2-3 day warm-up next week, we should see a period of normal temps before we warm back up again. The only reason why we may see normal temps at the end of next week is due to the ridging taking place south of Greenland (as you can see in the image above), helping to counteract the trough in the west, thus preventing a southeast ridge from developing.

Once that ridge south of Greenland moves out, the trough in the west will do its dirty work to bring back the above normal temps. At least that is what I am thinking now. I stated from the beginning I thought October would be warm, in the +1 to +2 range. Hopefully I do not have to change that to above +2, but I'll see how things look next week.

October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 6 Ecm_z500a_5d_noram_9

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Post by HectorO Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:52 pm

Definitely a wait and see. I still don't see the temps getting that high. Tuesday to me is the day that looks like it could be the warmest. And even then I'm not seeing anything pass mid 70s. However, it's going to feel a little balmy, that day even with the temps in 70s. There could be another 70s later in the week next week and after that things start to change. In October I can't trust anything 3 days out lol.
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Post by algae888 Fri Oct 10, 2014 12:04 am

sroc and frank thanks for that insight. didn't know these indicators affect winter more (with snow and cold). always learning something on here that's why I love this site. time to do some more research on the tele comm and 500mb map as they fascinate me.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 10, 2014 6:48 am

@algae888 wrote:sroc and frank thanks for that insight. didn't know these indicators affect winter more (with snow and cold). always learning something on here that's why I love this site. time to do some more research on the tele comm and 500mb map as they fascinate me.

You and me both my friend

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by docstox12 Fri Oct 10, 2014 7:33 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:so far through 9 days of October we are 2* above normal. with a brief cool down coming this weekend followed by more warmth. this is with a -nao. +pna and a very -ao. plus no coastals. if this was jan. we would be screaming. this leads me to believe that these indicators are not driving our weather right now. so then what is driving the weather for us? any thoughts?

Al I follow JB.  I take the good with the bad.  He has been talking about how the very same teleconnections that bring us cold and snow in the winter will bring us warm anomalies in the fall.  He was seeing this and talking about this for October since at least late August.  He notes that that these same teleconnections, (-AO, +PNA, and -NAO) will in fact cause more warmth in the east and the center of the colder anomalies further west during this time frame, and will shift more to what we are expecting in the colder months cold and stormy anomalies.  The reasoning in part is based on the wavelengths or amplitudes of the ridges and troughs that develop associated with the jet stream across the northern hemisphere.  In the colder months there is much more of a temp gradient therefore when the drivers set up these troughs and ridges they set up with more amplitude; therefore shorter wavelengths changing where the axis of these features are centered. If these teleconnections hold serve like this through the winter trust me we are in for a ride.  The question is will it stay like that.

Excellent, Doc!

Now I can see why the favorable teleconnections for winter would bust out in the warmer autumn.Clear, concise and logical explanation!


43.8 degrees,partly cloudy altocumulus clouds,barometer 30.20 and rising here in Monroe NY HV.Sun is out now.


GO KC in the playoffs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by docstox12 Fri Oct 10, 2014 7:35 am

@algae888 wrote:sroc and frank thanks for that insight. didn't know these indicators affect winter more (with snow and cold). always learning something on here that's why I love this site. time to do some more research on the tele comm and 500mb map as they fascinate me.

Agree, Algae, the meteorological talent here is mind boggling.We just got a great seminar on fall vs winter teleconnections which I, following weather for 54 years, never knew.
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Post by HectorO Fri Oct 10, 2014 8:30 am

I've been reading articles everywhere even the times this morning where they are expecting oil to drop because experts are predicting a mild winter ahead. Wonder what they are seeing that we arent.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Oct 10, 2014 9:11 am

Hector, that could be right but IMHO, I don't think so.

Oil has been, like most commodities, the victim of a recent uptick in the US Dollar due to Yellen's jawboning higher interest rates.Also, oil is being produced in massive quantities here.Add the growing European and Asian slowdowns in economies, and you have the recipe for falling oil prices.

If the experts are wrong and a brutally cold winter prevails, expect nat gas and oil to get a fundamental boost.If one knew that, you could take long positions in this cheap oil right now and make a killing.

This is where long term weather forecasts and commodity investing go hand in hand.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 10, 2014 9:15 am

FYI I started posting tropical updates in the tropics section since things are heating up a bit so care to take a look I just posted some graphics and thoughts (And no no 384 hr stuff lol).
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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 10, 2014 9:23 am

@docstox12 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:so far through 9 days of October we are 2* above normal. with a brief cool down coming this weekend followed by more warmth. this is with a -nao. +pna and a very -ao. plus no coastals. if this was jan. we would be screaming. this leads me to believe that these indicators are not driving our weather right now. so then what is driving the weather for us? any thoughts?

Al I follow JB.  I take the good with the bad.  He has been talking about how the very same teleconnections that bring us cold and snow in the winter will bring us warm anomalies in the fall.  He was seeing this and talking about this for October since at least late August.  He notes that that these same teleconnections, (-AO, +PNA, and -NAO) will in fact cause more warmth in the east and the center of the colder anomalies further west during this time frame, and will shift more to what we are expecting in the colder months cold and stormy anomalies.  The reasoning in part is based on the wavelengths or amplitudes of the ridges and troughs that develop associated with the jet stream across the northern hemisphere.  In the colder months there is much more of a temp gradient therefore when the drivers set up these troughs and ridges they set up with more amplitude; therefore shorter wavelengths changing where the axis of these features are centered. If these teleconnections hold serve like this through the winter trust me we are in for a ride.  The question is will it stay like that.

Excellent, Doc!

Now I can see why the favorable teleconnections for winter would bust out in the warmer autumn.Clear, concise and logical explanation!


43.8 degrees,partly cloudy altocumulus clouds,barometer 30.20 and rising here in Monroe NY HV.Sun is out now.


GO KC in the playoffs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Can't forget about the MJO as well. It's progged to be in a fairly strong octane 1 over the next 10-14 days before crashing back into the COD. If you recall in winter this octane is usually favorable for cold and stormy in the east however this time of year it will result in warmth and riding into the east. Relatively speaking. This octane also promoted lower pressure in the Caribbean and SE Atlantic. If you look at the end of last nights euro run there is a potent tropical system in and around the Bahamas with a strong hP to the north. I won't say any more about it for now because it's too far to take serious, and we are in the wrong thread, but IMO the tele conns favors something like that in that region.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: October 2014 Obs and Discussions

Post by amugs Fri Oct 10, 2014 9:37 am

@docstox12 wrote:Hector, that could be right but IMHO, I don't think so.

Oil has been, like most commodities, the victim of a recent uptick in the US Dollar due to Yellen's jawboning higher interest rates.Also, oil is being produced in massive quantities here.Add the growing European and Asian slowdowns in economies, and you have the recipe for falling oil prices.

If the experts are wrong and a brutally cold winter prevails, expect nat gas and oil to get a fundamental boost.If one knew that, you could take long positions in this cheap oil right now and make a killing.

This is where long term weather forecasts and commodity investing go hand in hand.

Doc and everyone on this family board - the meteorological wisdom and knowledge is friggin bar none - learn something new everyday here.

On oil and nat gas - oil ALWAYS falls from after the 4th of July until the late fall/early winter - saw a station last night 2.85 a gallon cash - woo hooo!! Why? the refineries do not have to add ozone additives to the gas for the upcoming cooler/cold season - if you remember the ethanol 10 that was an additive to gasoline back int the 1990's that ticked up gas by .05 to .10 a gallon. That is long gone and the refineries can produce almost 1/3 as much materials - gasoline, kerosene, tar, etc because of this. Also, the lack of tropical cyclones that would shut down or inhibit teh production of black gold in the GOM and surrounding area both land and sea isn't a problem. Lastly,oil output is above the demand so the glut is happening driving down the price of oil as the great Doc pointed out a world wide slow down - I read an article in the Bergen record back in late July by an economic forecaster who stated this fall the market will correct/recession due to a worldwide recession that we will also feel in the 4th quarter and 1st quarter of the fiscal years 2014 and 2015 respectively - oh and who is this guy - the same economist who called the tech bubble burst, the housing market meltdown and collapse of the economy in 2008. - do we not learn!! The fall sucks for the market - Black Friday 2x and housing meltdown d tech burst - yeah all happened in October!

Natural Gas is going through the roof - so if you have it for this winter see if you can lock in a price with your company or one of these third party companies - I locked in for .52 a ccf for 6 months but it took some discussion. Why - well frickin politics what else is new - the pipeline demand is up and the 2 main lines from the gulf of mexico/la and one from the upper Midwest - a new huge pipeline is to be online but not until the spring of 2015 at best which will not help ease the demand - also the regs on natural gas shipping have curbed the ability to transport by rail and ship so this is what we are left with. It will also affect our electrical prices since this is what is used to power our Generation facilities - how do I know - I teach this to my students in my Engineering class and research this all the time oh and I have friends in each field let's say.

So Doc get out or wait till we correct even more and jump in to buy - I am sure their will be stocks to gobble up and shed off later and there you have it on this front. test next week - only kidding! geek

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: October 2014 Obs and Discussions

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