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October 2014 Obs and Discussions

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October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: October 2014 Obs and Discussions

Post by amugs Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:18 am

GFS says we get a good dose of rain as the cut off low MEANDERS towards the NNE from the Midwest - over 1/2 the country is affected by this LP this week!!

October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 8 Gfs_namer_102_precip_ptot


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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Oct 13, 2014 10:06 am

amugs wrote:GFS says we get a good dose of rain as the cut off low MEANDERS towards the NNE from the Midwest - over 1/2 the country is affected by this LP this week!!

October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 8 Gfs_namer_102_precip_ptot

Wow, what a storm! Too bad this wasn't winter, or this place would be going nuts right now. What is encouraging is our dry pattern has been replaced with a more active pattern, which bodes well for us with winter approaching.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Oct 13, 2014 10:30 am

The coastal plain would probably be on the warm side of this one.

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Post by aiannone Mon Oct 13, 2014 10:33 am

Got down to 27.2* here in Lyndonville, VT this morning. Feels like a winter morning! Can't wait for the first snow! Ironically, it is forecasted to be 74* here by midweek lol.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 13, 2014 11:28 am

Wednesday night into Thursday morning is when the heaviest rain is expected. Possibly more then 2 inches of it. Will have a writeup on it later today.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:44 pm

Is any of that tstorms activity going to make it into the area or will this just be a soaking nasty rain?
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 13, 2014 1:02 pm

That's something I'll look over later on

October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 8 Post-40-0-06217600-1413219466

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 13, 2014 1:32 pm

Fair enough, still 2 days away, as we know severe threats have been posted this year with no real outcome (for me anyways). Mugs posted a LP around the 22nd/23rd, is this still something to watch or is this something we shouldn't even be talking about until this coming weekend? I see Euro lost it and GFS still has something and CMC at 240 has a major hurricane headed for panhandle from the GOM (yeah ok).
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 14, 2014 9:17 am

Mid to upper 70's today and tomorrow. May stay in the 70's through Saturday with the exception of Thursday due to the rain

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 14, 2014 9:37 am

Wow Indian summer. A good sign for snow isn't it?
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 14, 2014 10:13 am

jmanley32 wrote:Wow Indian summer. A good sign for snow isn't it?

I've heard that but I don't believe it

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Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 14, 2014 12:41 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Wow Indian summer. A good sign for snow isn't it?

I've heard that but I don't believe it

To simply state that a warm October leads to a cold snowy winter is a pretty broad statement. JMan im not picking on you here at all because I hear that kind of a general statement all over the place.

If you looked for analogs you would find those that had a warm fall and anomalously warm and/or dry winters as well as cold snowy ones.  I think statistically there are more winters that end up colder and wetter with warm Octobers then end up warm; however.  So you have to ask the question why?  

 What would be interesting, and if I had the time I would examine myself, is to examine the status' of the ENSO, SST anomalies, stratospheric warming events, PDO, and some of the other major drivers in the warmer than normal falls that led to warmer or dryer than normal winters and compare to the colder and or snowier ones.  Even more importantly see which of these major weather pattern drivers within a specific fall were the ones that had the most influence on the way those specific winters played out. For instance if you looked at last winter there were plenty of drivers, +NAO for instance, that if you looked at alone would statistically favor warmer and drier winters in the NE.  As we know that wasn't the case last year.  The very warm SST anomalies in the gulf of Alaska led to a very strong amplified ridge in the west, -EPO and +PNA,  which over came the pos NAO and drove the colder and stormy than normal winter into the east.  Those specific drivers seemed to more strongly influence last winters overall pattern when compared to others.

I am sure Frank is going to point out soon enough some of the analogs that show the similarities to this years fall drivers, and what those analogues had for their respective winters. The problem is that each year has it's own unique combination of influences from the combined effect of all the major drivers.  And to add to the confusion a strong, vs moderate vs weak driver(ie: weak El Niño vs strong El Niño) from year to year will influence the overall pattern more or less when combined with how strong or weak the other drivers are for that year. Confused yet?   I love this stuff.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 14, 2014 1:38 pm

No its not picking on me. It's fine. I love learning from u all. Any Updates On Tomorrow Night frank. Looks like rain totals moved east. Seems wants to weaken over area then refire over ct.
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Post by algae888 Tue Oct 14, 2014 3:04 pm

scott yes very confusing! so I did a little research. since we are having a very warm October I looked at the warmest Octobers, at least 3* above normal for the month, where I think this month will end up. from 1980 we have had 5 Octobers that meet this criteria: 1984, 1990, 1995, 2007 and 2013. total snowfall for following winters are respectively: 24.1, 24.9, 75.6, 11.9, and 57.4. yes last October was very warm(+3.3). so if we simplify (I know weather is much more complicated than this) and use these numbers we have a 40% chance of higher than normal snowfall for this winter and 80% of at least average rates. so are these clues or take with a grain of salt?
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Post by algae888 Tue Oct 14, 2014 3:07 pm

BTW data was used just for central park.
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Post by algae888 Tue Oct 14, 2014 3:39 pm

ok as I have nothing to do today.lol, here are some more numbers. these are the Octobers that were between 1* and 3* above normal with snow totals for that winter after each one. 82-27.2, 83-25.4, 85-13, 86-23.1, 89-13.4, 91-12.6, 94-11.8, 01-3.5, 05-41, 10-61.9, 12-26.1. so if you take these numbers then we have about a 55% chance of normal or higher snow totals and a 45% chance of below normal. so I conclude that October temps tell us little about what to expect for snow totals in winter. how ever the trend has been since 2000 higher snow totals than normal.
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Post by algae888 Tue Oct 14, 2014 4:33 pm

ok some more numbers. for the Octobers that ave +3*... the following dec, jan and feb enso. 1984-85 had a weak la nina(-1.0), 90-91 and 2013-14 were neutral (.3and-.6) and 95-96 and 07-08 weak el nino(+1.0-+0.7). with a weak el nino and temps very warm in oct we had 75.6 and 11.9" of snow. conversely with a neutral enso we had 24.9 and 57.4". still crunching numbers for mod warm Octobers will have them later. this is for region 3.4
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Post by algae888 Tue Oct 14, 2014 5:09 pm

ok the years with a el nino for (dec., jan. and feb) and warm Octobers (1*+) these are the snow totals; 27.2, 23.1, 12.6, 11.8, 75.6, 41, and 11.5.  neutral enso; 13, 13.4, and 3.5. with la nina; 25.4, 61.9 and 57.4.*( last year was close to neutral and noaa considered it neutral but it was a -.6 which should be a weak la nina.). so since 1980 it looks like we want a la nina if we went just off these criteria. more confused?lol
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Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 14, 2014 5:40 pm

Your using data from only one reference point.  That will not give you a good analysis for the NE as a region, or Mid Atlantic or overlapping of the two etc.  These drivers affect things on a large scale so to see how they influence a particular region you have to look at the region on a broader scale than what you have.  For instance winter 2012/2013 for my in my back yard I totaled 43.65" for the season; whereas Central Park only measured 26.1".  If you looked at it for what that's worth I had a well above avg year for snow fall, but CP only had about an avg year.  I only live 60-80miles east of CP as the crow flys out on LI.  The difference is NEMO dropped 29" on me in one storm (EPIC!!)  My point is when looking at how these drivers affect a season you cant look in any one individual back yard.  You have to look at the region as a whole.  If you could take the snowfall totals for a given analogue year and compare them with that locations avg snowfall, then take the individual avg departure from normal from all those locations (white dots in below map) and avg them then you can get a much truer sense in how a region is affected by a particular setup.  Even if your back yard didn't reach that potential.  drunken It would take a lot of work though.  
October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 8 <a href=October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 8 Sitema10" />

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Post by algae888 Tue Oct 14, 2014 5:47 pm

uggh! calling up CP. where are you? lol thanks for the info scott. cant wait for winter to start!
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Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 14, 2014 6:52 pm

algae888 wrote:uggh! calling up CP. where are you? lol thanks for the info scott. cant wait for winter to start!

You and me both my friend. Although I am enjoying the fall at the moment. Today wa a little too humid for my liking though. SW winds ahead of our ULL

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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Oct 14, 2014 8:52 pm

Awesome day today, went into the city and played "tourist" even went to the Empire State Building. It wasn't too clear today, lots of haze but perfect temps for walking around the city....

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Post by HectorO Tue Oct 14, 2014 9:02 pm

jmanley32 wrote:No its not picking on me. It's fine. I love learning from u all. Any Updates On Tomorrow Night frank. Looks like rain totals moved east. Seems wants to weaken over area then refire over ct.

I think there could be some truth to the statement you made. Before all the fancy equipment (that is still off on a week to week basis) how else did old timers in the colonial age prepare themselves for what could be a bad winter? There were definitely signs of nature that helped them out I'm sure.

Anyways, as expected and as I mentioned last week. I didn't see this week getting into the 80s despite what the Euro said. Today my area was 73 and tomorrow will be also. Saturday also looks to be getting a little cooler than expected. Temps did show 70s but now show many areas to be hitting high 60s. Next week will be cold and I work in a garage with huge doors that can't always stay closed because busses need to come in and out of them, so I'll dress warm. Looking to go to Hoboken with the wife Saturday in the evening. It will be getting chilly.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 14, 2014 10:49 pm

HectorO wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:No its not picking on me. It's fine. I love learning from u all. Any Updates On Tomorrow Night frank. Looks like rain totals moved east. Seems wants to weaken over area then refire over ct.

I think there could be some truth to the statement you made. Before all the fancy equipment (that is still off on a week to week basis) how else did old timers in the colonial age prepare themselves for what could be a bad winter? There were definitely signs of nature that helped them out I'm sure.

Anyways, as expected and as I mentioned last week. I didn't see this week getting into the 80s despite what the Euro said. Today my area was 73 and tomorrow will be also. Saturday also looks to be getting a little cooler than expected. Temps did show 70s but now show many areas to be hitting high 60s. Next week will be cold and I work in a garage with huge doors that can't always stay closed because busses need to come in and out of them, so I'll dress warm. Looking to go to Hoboken with the wife Saturday in the evening. It will be getting chilly.

Philly got to 78 and CPK to 77 degrees. That's as close to 80 in mid October as you're going to get, so I think the EURO did great.

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Post by algae888 Wed Oct 15, 2014 8:50 pm

just got back home from trip to Rhode island with my daughter. we visited providence and URI as she is off to college next year. fall foliage was spectacular and we enjoyed our ride with all the beautiful colors. was very warm and humid and windy. wind actually felt good. I see that the board is very active today. Smile nice to see some cold air for next week. start to take models seriously in about 2-3 weeks as far as winter weather. tired of heat, humidity and phantom hurricanes!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Oct 18, 2014 5:07 pm

Our first shot at below freezing comes tomorrow night. 850's going to fall below freezing as well. First real cold shot.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html
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Post by amugs Sat Oct 18, 2014 11:16 pm

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