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October 2014 Obs and Discussions

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October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 2 Empty Re: October 2014 Obs and Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 04, 2014 11:46 am

@Isotherm wrote:0.60". Decent rain event here.

October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 2 Screenshot_2014_10_04_11_35_56

The immediate coast including northeast NJ seems to be benefitting the most right now. This has actually been a pretty solid event, should be over at the expected time of 2-3pm

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Post by Isotherm Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:17 pm

Yeah definitely better than I expected. Figured I'd be lucky to record 0.50" but I ended up with 0.77". Largest rain event since September 6th.

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Post by Dtone Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:40 pm

It came down moderate to heavy at times.

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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:46 pm

so far .6", with intermittent downpours....YUCK!

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by sroc4 Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:57 pm

Im getting my ass kicked at work all day today 😢 Wish I was watching the weather.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Math23x7 Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:58 pm

It has really been coming down today.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Oct 04, 2014 3:10 pm

We got a good amount here Ace should have an idea how much. Sun is out now
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Post by algae888 Sat Oct 04, 2014 3:27 pm

1.29" of rain here. looks to be over now. tele comm. for the next 7 days are unreal. ao-5 nao -2 and pna +1+. and looking further out all three look to remain in the same state just not as extreme. so do not be surprised to see a nice coastal form in this time frame (next 2 weeks). plus another shot of cold air.
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Post by amugs Sat Oct 04, 2014 4:07 pm

Tom - I can not believe it - the tide so minuscule has changed - I recorded .87" of rain and you had .77" - this is a first - maybe thing swill change for this upcoming winter and we up here in NNJ get smoked instead of skunked - Laughing Laughing

I just gave myself the KOD - OH POOP!!

63.5 degrees now and sunny - had my sons football game at 10PM today and what a mud bowl - rained steadily and heavy all game long - ZOO - YUCK 100000x

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sat Oct 04, 2014 4:09 pm

Al here is the chart you are talking about - when was the last time the AO tanked this low - anyone, CP where the hell are you for this man????

October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 2 Post-564-0-65269700-1412446812

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 04, 2014 6:04 pm

mugs what does that mean when that big drop in the AO happens and sorry for not understanding but what does AO mean / stand for? Is this whats possibly going to make for the storm that the GFS has been screaming about and now other models too are catching onto the development in the tropics which appears to be what is going to create the coastal on the 15-17th time frame. And GFS has been pretty consistent on this time frame deviating little each run and moving up in time which is one of the things we CAN look at in such the long range.
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Post by Quietace Sat Oct 04, 2014 6:15 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:We got a good amount here Ace should have an idea how much. Sun is out now
.88 recorded. Ground is pretty saturated from the last couple events.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 04, 2014 6:19 pm

Ahh ok I am rading about the AO now, I kinda get it, so with the -AO bing so low its a sign of stronger storms wikipedia mentions 2010 Feb when it dropped to its lowest point. At that time we had some huge storms. So iguess this could mean in otherwords that the 16th storm could very well be on the table (although would it be cool enough to be anything but rain?
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Post by amugs Sat Oct 04, 2014 6:30 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Ahh ok I am rading about the AO now, I kinda get it, so with the -AO bing so low its a sign of stronger storms wikipedia mentions 2010 Feb when it dropped to its lowest point.  At that time we had some huge storms.  So iguess this could mean in otherwords that the 16th storm could very well be on the table (although would it be cool enough to be anything but rain?
Yes sir and if we get a strong NAO block it slows and locks them on the coast - if we get that big block over the eastern part of Greenland it can get real serious IMO.

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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Oct 04, 2014 6:37 pm

mugs...recorded .70" here...

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 04, 2014 6:41 pm

mugs are we talking Sandy intensity part two? if that block sets up and the GFS holds to how strong that coastal gets? I don't mean the retrograde track Sandy made, I mean severity wise. You said serious, can u clarify what u mean by that? I have things happening around that time and could spell some issues. Hopefully it doesnt come until after Columbus day (I doubt it will push up 3-4 days but u never know I guess). Again IF it happens I know nothing is for sure.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 04, 2014 6:44 pm

mugs I am going to take your word on the 18z being untrustable because it takes the coastal and shunts it OTS before OBX, hrumph lol. Although another strong system from the west moves through again but thats WAYYYY out almost 384. GFS has been pretty consistent on placement/intensity of carribbean development from run to run through about 240.
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Post by algae888 Sat Oct 04, 2014 6:52 pm

Jman dont take every run as verbatim in that time frame. The important things are the tele comm. Models are going to flip flop even loose the storm but as mugs says atmosphere is rip for a big storm in the next two weeks. Not saying it will happen just that probability is higher now.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 04, 2014 6:54 pm

right al, I know.  Just seein model candy u know, and then seeing it drop or flip flop.  Thats the hard thing about wx, is not knowing.  And having over a week to fully find out, although by midweek I would think we will have a much better idea, and def know whats going to happen Sat. Can u explain briefly what tele communications has to do with the wx?
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Post by algae888 Sat Oct 04, 2014 7:23 pm

jman what I understand about the tele comm. Is that it tells us what's going on in the upper atmosphere about 18,000 feet above the earth. The map is the 500mb or 500 vortex. It drives the weather that goes on at the surface and is the best and most reliable Map to make a forecast. so let's say the PNA is positive this will form a ridge on the west coast which in turn should form a trough along the East Coast combine that with a negative nao which slows the atmosphere down thats why its called blocking add in a - AO which causes cold arctic air to flow southward into the u.s and you have all the ingredients for a major storm on the East Coast. that's my limited knowledge on it I hope it helps
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 04, 2014 7:25 pm

Well some of those terms I havent read up on but the final outcomes means possible big storm, thats all I needed to know lol. So will def be a interesting next two weeks or so. probabbly will be lots to track, wether or not they hit who knows but I will say the rain this morning was surprising it was a gully washer for a few hrs.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Oct 04, 2014 9:03 pm

[quote="algae888"]jman what I understand about the tele comm. Is that it tells us what's going on in the upper atmosphere about 18,000 feet above the earth. The map is the 500mb or 500 vortex. It drives the weather that goes on at the surface and is the best and most reliable Map to make a forecast. so let's say the PNA is positive this will form a ridge on the west coast which in turn should form a trough along the East Coast combine that with a negative nao which slows the atmosphere down thats why its called blocking add in a - AO which causes cold arctic air to flow southward into the u.s and you have all the ingredients for a major storm on the East Coast. that's my limited knowledge on it I hope it helps[/quot

This was a nice explanation for a tele-dummy like myself.I'm starting to learn this and see how they do all connect.Let's hope all the ingredients come together this winter for lots of tracking fun and some major snowfalls to enjoy.

Leaves coming down all over the place here in the HV.Ordered an amateur wireless weather station I can set up here in my new place in Monroe NY to enter the CP-SNOW temperature wars of winter 2014-2015.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Oct 05, 2014 12:41 am

Today we probably won't get out of the 60's. Monday and Tuesday may also struggle to reach 70, but I think we do on Tuesday. Then we get into then mid 70's by midweek with some more rain showers. Nothing too eventful. The cooler weather will feel nice, especially at night.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Oct 05, 2014 6:01 am

I usually keep my bathroom window open to keep air flowing and lower the humidity from the shower and I just went it to use the bathroom in the middle of the night and had to shut it because it was so cold in there. Weather station reading 39 here at 6am, winter she comes...
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Oct 05, 2014 6:45 am

I had 42 here at 6am
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