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October 2014 Obs and Discussions

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Post by docstox12 Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:15 am

32.3 now, Doc. Forgot to mention, heavy frost this morning as well.

I'm up in the mountains of the HV now, 3 to 5 degrees colder than my old location Mahwah NJ.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:22 am

That should help you a ton in a month or so. We will have to see if you fight for high ratios with lower QPF or all out slammed depending on the track this winter.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Dtone Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:57 am

@jmanley32 wrote:I noted something on my way to work today, I was looking at the trees and visualizing what it would have looked like had it snowed and I notice that a lot more trees than in past several years are bare.  I wionder if this is a good sign for upcoming winter season, I hope so I def do not want sleepless tracking only to be let down over and over lake last years second half.

More bare trees ahead after a windy weekend. I was noticing yday how brilliant the colors are in southern Westchester along the Sprain and other pkwys. Peak now there, I guess past peak further north. Still not quite there within city limits.

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Post by Quietace Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:07 am

WXBell is now also running the 13km GFS Parallel to regular OP. Looks great

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Post by Quietace Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:16 am

Comparing 13km on the bottom
October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 13 Gfs_pr14
October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 13 Gfs_sl10

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:26 am

Oh kool that will be nice in the tropical season, can see gom carribbean etc. And allows us to see systems further north, blocking etc.
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Post by Quietace Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:28 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Oh kool that will be nice in the tropical season, can see gom carribbean etc.  And allows us to see systems further north, blocking etc.
Thats just the Domain view. You can select that view on the OP GFS, thats nothing different.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:29 am

I have tried to ask this a few times but I havent gotten a answer yet. Since I do not have a appropriate place to setup a wx station in a apartment on 2nd floor I wanted to geet a handheld waterproof anemometer to measure winds temps. Does anyone recommend a brand or can I go with just a cheap one from ebay, so go as high as a few hundred. I figure the one with max readout of 45mph is too low, many times we have gusts well over that, and I want to be able to report properly instead of guessing.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:29 am

Oh so what is different ACE? I noticed the colors are different but readout the same amount of qpf.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:31 am

@Quietace wrote:Comparing 13km on the bottom
October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 13 Gfs_pr14
October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 13 Gfs_sl10

Wait what?? The 13km compared to what? Better resolution I suppose?

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Quietace Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:32 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Oh so what is different ACE? I noticed the colors are different but readout the same amount of qpf.
The Resolution is much improved to 13km, i thought that was very noticeable and easy to see.

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Post by Quietace Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:38 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:Comparing 13km on the bottom
October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 13 Gfs_pr14
October 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 13 Gfs_sl10

Wait what??  The 13km compared to what?  Better resolution I suppose?
Current GFS is on the top. Not 100% sure what resolution its run at now. The 13km upgrade is on the bottom.


Last edited by Quietace on Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:43 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:41 am

Ryan u mean the 13k is on the bottom (you said both were on top lol), I recognize the wxvbell top map the bottom one looks new.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:42 am

"The entire globe is covered by the GFS at a base horizontal resolution of 18 miles (28 kilometers) between grid points, which is used by the operational forecasters who predict weather out to 16 days in the future. Horizontal resolution drops to 44 miles (70 kilometers) between grid point for forecasts between one week and two weeks."
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/global-forcast-system-gfs

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:42 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Ryan u mean the 13k is on the bottom (you said both were on top lol), I recognize the wxvbell top map the bottom one looks new.
What he said right?

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:43 am

Yeah it is easier to tell how much qpf there is, the other was more difficult to disceern.
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Post by Quietace Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:44 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Ryan u mean the 13k is on the bottom (you said both were on top lol), I recognize the wxvbell top map the bottom one looks new.
What he said right?
Correct.

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Post by Quietace Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:47 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Yeah it is easier to tell how much qpf there is, the other was more difficult to disceern.
The point to the upgrade is that it will allow the model to see smaller and more detailed features. It shows the inverted trough type feature the other models show much clearer than the OP.

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Post by aiannone Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:52 am

Had some cloud cover up here in Lyndonville, VT last night, so we only got down to 34.1*
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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:52 am

Ryan does it only have the conus or can you view the regional maps too?

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Quietace Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:59 am

@sroc4 wrote:Ryan does it only have the conus or can you view the regional maps too?
He just added it yesterday so it only has CONUS and E/W CONUS. Plus Global Domains.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:25 am

I got down to 29.5 this morning which I wasn't expecting.

Only two mornings in October sub freezing which is very unusual in the HV. I don't mind that October was exceptionally mild. As long as we break the pattern by Thanksgiving.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:29 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:27 am

@docstox12 wrote:32.3 now, Doc. Forgot to mention, heavy frost this morning as well.

I'm up in the mountains of the HV now, 3 to 5 degrees colder than my old location Mahwah NJ.

I got down to 29.5 Doc. What was your morning low and more importantly what was Snowmans?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:35 am

It was long sleeve weathere here, def wasn't too cold for my taste, but then again I get hot in most weather lol. I forgot to check the care thermo, and it was 8:15 already.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:03 pm

Cool start this morning, 39, forgot to check weather station reading for low. Was probably pretty close to 39.
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