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Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23

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Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 Empty Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23

Post by sroc4 Sun Oct 19, 2014 6:41 am

Since its no longer a long range topic I made this weeks event, or " Not much of an event" a separate thread so if any major changes occur or if anyone wants to continue to discuss this weeks set up etc. they can.  As of now this is looking like a whole lot of weak sauce in the precip totals depart.  These are last nights 00z images of the GFS, CMC, and Euro precip total accummulations going through 00z Sat. It looks like precip starts on or around Tuesday for most and prob remains light to moderate at times at best on and off all week.  There is going to be alot of energy swirling around up above embedded in a large closed ULL, but it appears to stay strung out, so there appears to be no main focus of energy to generate a strong surface LP.  Instead a broad weak surface LP is all we get.  The trend has been weaker, esp the Euro, over the last 24hrs.  Upper level lows can be unpredictable, however, so it is possible as the week progresses certain areas may see totals go up but overall this is nothing to write home about.  
Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 <a href=Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 Gfs_pr10" />
Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 <a href=Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 Cmc_pr10" />
Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 <a href=Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 Euro_p10" />

Just for comparison this was the Euro 00z from the night before:
Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 <a href=Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 Euro_p11" />

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:47 am

It's going to be a miserable overcast week with cool temps and cold showers. Fun  Suspect

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Post by amugs Sun Oct 19, 2014 12:39 pm

Write this one off folks - showers,overcast - getting us ready for November with an east/ne flow/wind - YUCK - I have 3 soccer games this week - may be playing a couple on the rain.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Oct 19, 2014 12:54 pm

Yep as of now looks like not much, as sroc said they can be unpredictable but for the most part this looks to effect the main NH and VT areas the most. I hope storms do not continue to do this for the winter.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:38 pm

Rai ntotals upped again on 12z Euro, still nothing too exciting in fact dreary week, and anyone that has to be outside its gonne suck (sorry mugs) I too have to run around outside too visiting clients. Going to be breezy looks to me like winds will gust between 30 to 40mph at times per Euro. But not consistently.

Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 Euro_r11
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:39 pm

But you know what had this been winter we would all be psyched, thats damn near 20+ inches for some places, so lets hope we get systems like this in winter or better stronger coastals, that face that storms are coming up is a good sign along with all the other stuff you guys have been talking about.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:16 am

Bulk of heaviest rain to come Wednesday evening into Thursday. .75-1.50 inches of rain

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:32 am

Update:

The latest model runs are showing an area of convection, due to an inverted trough, develop over southern NJ and the Jersey Shore. Those areas now have a potential to receive 1.25+ inches of rain from training storms. Areas just north into NYC will stay in the .75-1.25 inch zone for the most part. Then once you head into New England you reach the higher rain amounts again.

Wednesday afternoon (12-2pm) is when the steadiest rain should start. It will come to an end Thursday morning (9am) but showers are still possible into Friday morning.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:07 am

Wow the 12z NAM is killing southeast NJ with heavy rainfall

Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 NAM_MSLPThick_QPF_ne_f27_png_v_1413900205

Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 NAM_MSLPThick_QPF_ne_f28_png_v_1413900266

Would like to see other models. This is probably overdone

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:09 am

Holy crap

Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 NAM_MSLPThick_QPF_ne_f30_png_v_1413900416

Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 NAM_MSLPThick_QPF_ne_f31_png_v_1413900461

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:10 am

Atlantic City would look like Venice if this came to fruition.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:16 am

The difference with the GFS is that is takes all the H5 energy and consolidates it into one storm. The NAM is all over the place with the energy and even has two surface low's at one point. I would probably discredit this run of the NAM.

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Post by amugs Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:58 am

SNJ Jackpot ONCE AGAIIINNNNNNN!! Better change for DJFM or else I may just have to commute from SNJ to work !!

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 21, 2014 3:15 pm

Wow, hope that doesn't come north up here, I can do with out that much wain, Frank what would that total to if it were true? Like 8-9 inches if I guage right 5 hrs.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 21, 2014 3:24 pm

Looks to get pretty gusty too.

Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 Ecmwf_10
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Post by amugs Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:45 pm

.48" of rain 55*

Had t-storms from 3:30 until 4:30 today and now since 6PM a steady rain

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:05 pm

The lightning I am seeing must be coming from that cell that is moving ever so slowly NE that is slightly NW of manhattan, if it holds together could get a t-storm here. Lots of lightning in distance, that thing is moving sllllooowww.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:23 pm

Getting ready to close off
http://mapmaker.aos.wisc.edu/scr3/sat/g8/g8wvjs.html

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:59 pm

Really coming down around DC. Not moving very much either.

Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 2xradarb5_anim

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:00 pm

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_ridge_mid_atlantic.php

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:11 pm

Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 RAD_MOS_STATE_NY_N0R_ANI



Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 SAT_STATENY_IR4

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:22 pm

Funny, someone mentioned western northern NJ has a micro-climate, and I can see why. They are currently 5-8 degrees lower than my current location in eastern northern NJ

Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 Temperature720

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:23 pm

Closer look...mid 40's in somerset and southern morris counties

Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 North-temperature720

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:42 pm

Do not trust the diamond look on the GFS, but the Jersey coast does seem vulnerable for additional heavy rainfall tomorrow

Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 GFS_MSLPThick_QPF_ne_f18_png_v_1413948456

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 22, 2014 12:07 am

Look out Cape May, NJ

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

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