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Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:18 pm

Those bands over li are Coming into lower westchester. The wind is whipping.
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Post by Snow88 Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:49 pm

1.62" so far for the day

http://www.weatherlink.com/user/weathermedic/
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Post by Isotherm Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:50 pm

Definitely more rain than I expected locally. 2.12" and counting. 50F / wind driven rain. Gust to 25mph was highest thus far.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:52 pm

Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 - Page 5 Screenshot_2014_10_22_22_50_03

Heads up in Janet and Mugsville. That band is rotating through northeast NJ

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:58 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 - Page 5 Screenshot_2014_10_22_22_50_03

Heads up in Janet and Mugsville. That band is rotating through northeast NJ

yep... 50dbz band heading right for us, makes up for the .62" we got from yesterday until 7:00 tonight

bounce

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:58 pm

Total rain so far today

Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 - Page 5 Precipdaily720

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:59 pm

Pretty accurate for me so far....

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:02 pm

Frank can you post my area we have been pouring, it has to be well over a inch. The current band that is headed into Northern NJ is a doozie!
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Post by algae888 Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:09 pm

yea jman its been pouring here with wind gust to 40mph. have well over an inch. impressive storm. hope to get a few of these this winter. loos like we will be dry slotted for a while.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:11 pm

Jman nyc is up to 1.36

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Post by algae888 Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:11 pm

jman that band that passed us looks to be strengthening. nnj going to get walloped
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:16 pm

Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 - Page 5 Screenshot_2014_10_22_23_14_16

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:17 pm

Yeah I see that AL always after us lol, looks like dry slot for us could get a few more squalls. According to accuwx winds are supposed to still be into 40's tomorrow as storm pulls away, dunno if this is true or not. Well I am pretty far from central park frank do you know where I can find a detailed map like the one you posted for ny, or even better yonkers? But if not 1.36 sounds about right. Water having a lot of trouble draining due to leaves, a lot of big puddles and running streams down the road.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:19 pm

That can't be right Frank shows me in the 3-5 inch area?  Or am I reading that wrong.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:23 pm

Am I right in saying more bands than expected rotated further inland than expected too? I remember earlier ace telling me he didn't think they would make it here. They certainly did and further north too.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:48 pm

That map is crap. Just realized that

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:50 pm

Hmmm, might this be our issue with the models not predicting this quite right? This is not a good thing!

http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/22/weather-service-stops-receiving-satellite-data-issues-warning-about-forecast-reliability/
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:52 pm

That's interesting. My TV boxes were acting strange around that time as well. Were there solar flares or something a couple of days ago?

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:53 pm

Not that I am aware of, I keep watch on that too. if you read on apparently its not resolved and COULD degrade forecast reliability as outage continues (if it does).
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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Oct 23, 2014 6:06 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Not that I am aware of, I keep watch on that too.  if you read on apparently its not resolved and COULD degrade forecast reliability as outage continues (if it does).
The NWS needs to upgrade there systems. This is not the first incident to occur-they had a system crash during the summer. I believe the over achieving noreaster was cause of this latest power outage…inaccurate weather forecasting. They need to get there priorities straight with winter approaching. Can you imagine a scenario with an impending blizzard and then there satellite feed goes down? It would be total chaos! confused
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 23, 2014 6:44 am

Nutley I agree. This would have been exciting for us if it been snow but chaos as no preparations be msde. Is that huge area of rain north of us going to drop all the way in. Looks heavy.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:52 am

Absolutely amazing system.  You can see its influences from SE Canada and extending all the way to central America.  You can also see the front draped from The northern plains/western Great Lakes extending South through Eastern Tx and La.  This will start to push our ULL system east starting later today into Friday.  
Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 - Page 5 Latest_east_wv_conus


The Satellite Loop for the image above:
http://mapmaker.aos.wisc.edu/scr3/sat/g8/g8wvflash.html

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:59 am

How many MB is this thing? remember we originally thought it would struggle to get below 1000mb.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Oct 23, 2014 8:02 am

44.6 and just downright nasty. Never made it out of the 40's yesterday.

If this was 4-6 weeks from now, WOW!!!

Hopefully a sign of things to come.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:16 am

@jmanley32 wrote:How many MB is this thing? remember we originally thought it would struggle to get below 1000mb.

According to this site its at 996mb.  At the top of the loop click the box that says fronts and the surface pressure and frontal boundaries will show up.  
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

This site which is the mesoscale analysis has it at 998mb.
Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 - Page 5 Pmsl

Either way i think the reason its stronger is if you go back to one of my initial discussion on the Euro a few days ago I had mentioned that the Euro had the atomosphere "vertically stacking".  What this means is the center of the spin at the surface is aligned with the center of the spin at 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb and in this case even at 300mb.  Go to the link below and look at the tool bar on the top of the image. Look for the tab that reads "Basic UA"  If you move the mouse over it a drop down box should appear and the 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, etc Analysis should appear.  Click on the individual ones and it will then switch the image to show you the pattern at that particular level.  Notice the centers all pretty much align.  

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19#
As far as I am aware if the center of the surface low pressure is not directly below the centers of the circulation of the layers above, the ability for the air to rise into the atmosphere becomes limited.  By limiting the ability for the air to rise you limit the ability for the pressure to deepen unless other factors come into play, ie: a strong thermal gradient.  Remember the air comes together at the center of a LP(convergence).  At the surface the only way for the air to go as it converges on itself in a counterclockwise fashion is up (convection).  As the air rises in the atmoshphere if the center of an ULL at 500mb is not aligned with the center of the surface LP then it acts as a cap over the top of the rising air via the surface LP as it runs into the air that is headed for the center of the 500mb LP limiting the surface LP's ability to intensify.  This is the same process needed to form and deepen tropical cyclones.  If the centers ARE aligned then as the air coming from the surface rises it continues to do so higher and higher enhancing convection and deepening the surface LP.  The higher the alignment the more it acts like a vent for the system beneath it.  Think of a chimney.  The warm air from the fire rises and exits the top of the chimney.  This rising air leads to lower pressure in the fireplace.  The air leaving is replaced by air from your home, providing constant oxygen for your fire.  If you close the flume on the fireplace you lose the ability to vent your fire and the fire will get smaller.  Try it this winter and when you do visualize that process on a much larger scale, and I think you have whats happening here.  If some of the more educated individuals could chime in to correct any inaccuracies or add their input it would be much appreciated.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
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