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Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23

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Post by sroc4 Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:25 am

Here is that prev discussion from the 18th. The Euro had the surface LP get to 989mb. We will see if that actually happens. By the look at the current 300mb analysis there is a strong jet streak currently enhancing the convection over NE which is evident on radar. Again Euro had that as well.

" Looking at the Euro over night the operational and Ens seem to be in good agreement on one thing. The surface LP, 500mp ULL center, and even up at 300mb vertically stacks. If that truly happens that will allow the surface LP to deepen to 989MB like the Operational shows at hr 144. If you look the vorticity at hr 144 on H5 there is a ring of very strong vorticity away from the center of the ULL coming in off the atlantic coming onshore over S Mass/Ct . There is also a small jet streak at 300mb moving over top of that at hr 144 moving from E SE to W NW. If it plays out like that this should lead to exceptionally high rain totals somewhere near S Maine and/or Mass coast. ie 5-8" as per this run. The CMC and GFS do not vertically stack at all and as a result you get a much weaker broader system from surface to 300mb. The GFS and CMC have The center of the H5 ULL further off shore which prob correlates to the western ridge placement. But if the Euro is corrct about the vertical stacking it should in theory intensify the surface LP way the Euro thinks it will. IMO the Euro operational has been the most consistent with this, and its Ens are most in line with its operational when compared to the CMC and GFS operational/ens solns.

I think the key is not the + NAO or Ridge in the west but rather just how large of an area closes off at H5. The larger the area the more it disconnects from the main flow and meanders. Then IF any kind of vertical stacking occurs determines intensification. The smaller the area that closes off the more influences the ridge in the west and progressive flow in the east will have.

I think"

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Isotherm Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:03 am

2.38" was my total.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:18 am

@Isotherm wrote:2.38" was my total.

Iso your a Met right? Am I talking out of my you know what? I would love some feedback if possible.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:02 am

Still raining here. Band dropping in from north looks like it could train for a bit. Still Quite windy. Man if this were snow some of us would hate life others would be in hrsven! I hope this is a sign of similar coastal and the cold is in place.
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:36 am

NNJ and HV turn now, although the band is making its way south almost to the shore...Ryan and skins, is it still raining by you?

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:46 am

Eastern NJ and NYC under a band

Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 - Page 6 Inxr1Kphla_h

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:54 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:How many MB is this thing? remember we originally thought it would struggle to get below 1000mb.

According to this site its at 996mb.  At the top of the loop click the box that says fronts and the surface pressure and frontal boundaries will show up.  
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

This site which is the mesoscale analysis has it at 998mb.
Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 - Page 6 Pmsl

Either way i think the reason its stronger is if you go back to one of my initial discussion on the Euro a few days ago I had mentioned that the Euro had the atomosphere "vertically stacking".  What this means is the center of the spin at the surface is aligned with the center of the spin at 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb and in this case even at 300mb.  Go to the link below and look at the tool bar on the top of the image. Look for the tab that reads "Basic UA"  If you move the mouse over it a drop down box should appear and the 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, etc Analysis should appear.  Click on the individual ones and it will then switch the image to show you the pattern at that particular level.  Notice the centers all pretty much align.  

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19#
As far as I am aware if the center of the surface low pressure is not directly below the centers of the circulation of the layers above, the ability for the air to rise into the atmosphere becomes limited.  By limiting the ability for the air to rise you limit the ability for the pressure to deepen unless other factors come into play, ie: a strong thermal gradient.  Remember the air comes together at the center of a LP(convergence).  At the surface the only way for the air to go as it converges on itself in a counterclockwise fashion is up (convection).  As the air rises in the atmoshphere if the center of an ULL at 500mb is not aligned with the center of the surface LP then it acts as a cap over the top of the rising air via the surface LP as it runs into the air that is headed for the center of the 500mb LP limiting the surface LP's ability to intensify.  This is the same process needed to form and deepen tropical cyclones.  If the centers ARE aligned then as the air coming from the surface rises it continues to do so higher and higher enhancing convection and deepening the surface LP.  The higher the alignment the more it acts like a vent for the system beneath it.  Think of a chimney.  The warm air from the fire rises and exits the top of the chimney.  This rising air leads to lower pressure in the fireplace.  The air leaving is replaced by air from your home, providing constant oxygen for your fire.  If you close the flume on the fireplace you lose the ability to vent your fire and the fire will get smaller.  Try it this winter and when you do visualize that process on a much larger scale, and I think you have whats happening here.  If some of the more educated individuals could chime in to correct any inaccuracies or add their input it would be much appreciated.

Doc,

Your explanation is 100% correct. Your chimney analogy is pretty golden. The storm over-performed in the sense not one model really had this much convection showing up. The convection allowed high winds to reach the 925 mb level (surface) which as a result produced numerous power outages across LI. Stacking may have been one of the season for the over-performance. Another may have been the blocking, of which I admittedly under-estimated. The rolling ridge in the west turned into a banana-like block once the storm closed off. It is safe to say that a coastal storm that closes off this close to the coast will have several impacts on the area

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:01 pm

She is a beaut

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

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Post by amugs Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:27 pm

FINALLY we are getting some good steady rains after getting dry slotted all day yesterday and most of last night.

What a shock - Tom and Ace jackpot.

CP - yes this weather sucks - windy, rainy and raw - you love it if your are a QUACK QUACK!!

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:34 pm

Yes jackpot for us Ace hope it continues into winter
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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:36 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:She is a beaut

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html
Frank, might be a sign of things to come. If we get one of these cut-off lows during the winter, we'd be in business!
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Post by amugs Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:26 pm

Ace, Skins and Tom (Isotherm) - you have been jack potting for years now and the trend continues BUT it shall (the pendulum) swing back to climo and us NNJ and LHV and EPA folks should cash in sooner than later - at least I hope.

That is a very impressive sight on the water vapor loop - dam I would love to see the water vapor loop of the 1992 Superstorm cause it draped an enormous cold front with it that stretched into the Carribean

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 23, 2014 3:30 pm

Wind and rain pretty much done here, I really hope this is a sign of things to come. I have a question. I want to get a handheld anemometer w/ temp. I see them on ebay for about $100, is that too much and what brand would be the best? Since I can't setup a weather station in my apartment (and can't exactly have a fire this winter lol) I thought this would be the next best thing so I can report winds and temps without guessing.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:55 pm

Anndddd this storm is finally done...

How much rain did everyone end up with in these 2 days combined?

I think everyone for the most part reached 1.25 inches?

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Post by Isotherm Thu Oct 23, 2014 5:22 pm

2.45" here, probably the jackpot for this one save for coastal MoCo/Ocean Co.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Oct 23, 2014 5:26 pm

Thanks for the feed back Frank

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Oct 23, 2014 6:25 pm

1.04" here storm total......

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Post by amugs Thu Oct 23, 2014 6:31 pm

Zoo you beat my .01" of an inch - a bird must have pooped in your to beat me!! Laughing Laughing

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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Oct 23, 2014 6:40 pm

@amugs wrote:Zoo you beat my .01" of an inch - a bird must have pooped in your to beat me!! Laughing Laughing


HA! I think that's 2 times recently I beat ya! cheers

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Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
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Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 23, 2014 6:51 pm

I need a rain guage, but wouldn't know where to put it. Anyways my parents who are east of New Haven about 20 miles or so said last night was crazy, hours of huge thunder and the wind was intense. Quite a few power outages in their town too. Of course I move out and they get the storms, like the 36 inche snowstorm a few years back and I got 14 grrrrr, I was so mad lol. If I can find the pics of them digging out of that I will post. Not alot of damage but alot of small branches and leaves littered the roads this morning there. The wind has actually picked up again here, must be the departure of the storm. Looking forward to the next!
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 23, 2014 6:55 pm

CP came out with 2.12, I am closer to there than I am White Plains which 0.85 I just don't see as accurate. It rained heavy for most of the night and on and off today here so I am going to make a average and say we got about 1.5+.
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:08 pm

Upton report......

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS


And Mount Holly

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=phi&product=PNS



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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by amugs Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:02 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Upton report......

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS


And Mount Holly

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=phi&product=PNS


Good data thanks for posting!

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Post by mmillerc23 Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:18 pm

Storm total of 2.70" in Ocean Township.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 24, 2014 7:52 am

The system that keeps on giving. Light to mod rain at the moment.
Coastal Storm 10/22-10/23 - Page 6 Image12

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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