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*BLOG: Halloween Forecast

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docstox12
nutleyblizzard
CPcantmeasuresnow
Math23x7
algae888
Dunnzoo
Quietace
Sunflowers138
Snow88
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*BLOG: Halloween Forecast Empty *BLOG: Halloween Forecast

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Oct 26, 2014 11:42 pm

Please enjoy, read, and learn from the blog. Any questions, please ask.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2014/10/halloween-forecast-november-outlook.html

Frank

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Post by aiannone Sun Oct 26, 2014 11:55 pm

Great write up Frank. As of now, myself and several other students agree with what you just said. We are currently forecasting light rain showers transitioning to snow showers here with minor accumulations, but possibly up to a few inches up in the Green Mountains.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Oct 26, 2014 11:57 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Great write up Frank. As of now, myself and several other students agree with what you just said. We are currently forecasting light rain showers transitioning to snow showers here with minor accumulations, but possibly up to a few inches up in the Green Mountains.

Yup, I can definitely see that up by you.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Oct 26, 2014 11:57 pm

Alex, your 1 post away from 1,000. Say something funny.

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Post by aiannone Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:05 am

"IT'S RAININ SIDEWAYS!" Thanks Ollie!
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Post by aiannone Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:09 am

0z GFS coming in less amped and a later phase. Ridge was not as impressive as 12Z. Mostly a miss for southern areas, other than light rain showers but Northern New England and Northern NY still get a noticeable event.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:09 am

Haha, nice.

GFS coming in looking a little weaker than previous ones. Pretty much follows my forecast as well as yours. At hour 135 it looks like Vermont is getting snow.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:10 am

It's going to get cold...that is for sure.

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Post by aiannone Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:15 am

Yea, later phase and much weaker, though it looks like the theme is for me to get my first inch most likely this weekend. (correct me if I'm wrong). But, there is still plenty of time to watch this. And it sure is. We are forecasting highs in the low-mid 30's up here during the second part of next weekend.
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Post by aiannone Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:29 am

Bigger story is the cold. GFS has Saturday MAX temps in the low 40's at the coast to low 30's in NNE. On Sunday Max temps are in the mid 40's at the coast and upper 20's to around 30 in NNE
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Post by aiannone Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:40 am

GFS SAYS COLD! 2pm MAX Temps for Saturday!
*BLOG: Halloween Forecast Gfs_t210
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:41 am

ooz Euro goes nut with the snowfall, up in VT a bit more than a few inches and shows a inch all the way down to the coast.  Do I buy it not yet because of what sroc said about being too early to know where placement of precip will be. GFS did weaken but Euro still has wind gusts along the coast as high as 55+ kts. on the other hand the 06z completely loses entire area of much of anything. Still a lot to work out over the week IMO.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Oct 27, 2014 8:53 am

I'm not convinced we are done seeing changes in the modeling. I still think the first flakes may fly in CP with this system. I am going to give it another 24hrs before commenting further.

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Post by amugs Mon Oct 27, 2014 8:57 am

To early with a phase system just have. To wait and see IMO tues night 00z and Wed 6 z   And 12 z runs will help clear things up I hope.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:18 am

Flakes could fly in CP, but I think the bulk of the action will remain north of us. The northern stream is attached to a PV lobe and is having a difficult time riding the ridge. We'll see if things change.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:21 am

Oh yea, forgot to mention the winds. Once they switch out of the northwest, it's going to get pretty breezy. We'll be in between two pressure gradients until the phase occurs. Probably 25-35 mph with gusts near 50 mph

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:34 am

Yeah ai been mentioning that glad to know I wasn't blowing smoke, Euro had winds gusting even higher than 50 like 55 maybe plus.  Mostly strongest offshore.  Well if we get any kind of snow that can accumulate on trees that will be very interesting.  Although I am taking what you say for right now that the bulk stays north but I remember 2011, it was kind a surprise what happened.

Apparently according to JB (have not checked yet) The UKMET shows a phase bringing a storm for us and he feels that the Euro and GFS are coming on board. I think he is wishcasting at this point because things are still dicy like has been said not until tomorrow into Wednesday will thingsd start to come together.
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Post by aiannone Mon Oct 27, 2014 10:50 am

NWS Burlington Disco........

THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. EXPECTING ANY RAIN EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY COULD SEE THE SEASONS FIRST SNOWFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION. GFS MODEL A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER. THE ECMWF MODEL IS SUGGESTING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PRODUCING SNOW OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:02 pm

12z GFS making things interesting for us....ruh roh

*BLOG: Halloween Forecast Gfs1

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:03 pm

*BLOG: Halloween Forecast GFS_MSLPThick_QPF_ne_f123_png_v_1414425731

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:06 pm

Oh my...

*BLOG: Halloween Forecast GFS_MSLPThick_QPF_ne_f126_png_v_1414425886

If this solution is correct, throw my blog out the window. The GFS dug the northern stream vort instead of meandering it around the Great Lakes. Gives us a Miller-B type of solution

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:10 pm

Snow map

*BLOG: Halloween Forecast USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_144

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:16 pm

Not the very accurate WeatherBell maps

*BLOG: Halloween Forecast Gfs_6hr_snow_acc_ma_49

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Post by Snow88 Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:27 pm

12z GFS Snowmap

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:27 pm

Latest GFS model takes the weekend storm and turns it into a coastal system. Big changes from 00z run last night. The northern vort gets further south and east which allows for a transfer/phase off the coast.

*BLOG: Halloween Forecast 10557253_286985781497106_4483500020705493694_n

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