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*BLOG: Halloween Forecast

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:28 pm

What is DJF? So phase is coming up in time mugs thats good, I bet we see a drastic change once that pacific enrgy comes in. My guess is a closer storm with same intensity (wishcasting lol) but may not be far fetched. The days are creeping along, we will know soon enough.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:29 pm

hah skins yep, thats what I am hoping for. May have to stock up on some non perisables later this week if it looks to come in for snow, as we know the trees won't bode well with even a few inches of snow. I love to go to the grocery store the day before a storm and laugh at all the histerical people (yeah im cynical like that, nah not really).
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Post by mako460 Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:34 pm

JMAN....DJF= December, January, February

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:36 pm

Omg duh lol
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Post by aiannone Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:49 pm

I'm finally away from the coast all the way up in NERN VT about 50miles south of Canada, i better not miss out on an early season storm lol!
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:53 pm

Rayno's take o nthe system, alex feels your area for now is the spot, says Euro is outlier? I do not agree with that.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/cold-snow-for-halloween-weeke/90462062001?channel=top_story
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:03 pm

EURO Ensembles are a hit

*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 11 Qn748l

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:05 pm

Is that blue line the 32 degree line meaning snow all way down shore?
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Post by aiannone Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:06 pm

That would be a hit for most areas. Interior New England and close to the coast.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:07 pm

I will tkae that solution thank u very much, frank on wxbell is this the control run? Ensembles are 50 little maps which collection is it there?
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Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:11 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:EURO looks like a late phase, but it has the ridge axis further west which I like. We still get some rain to maybe snow showers. EURO went with the GFS idea of digging the northern stream too far south.

Yup but the surface Low still travels pretty close to the BM. Actually just S and E of the BM.
*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 11 <a href=*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 11 Ecmwf_16" />
 In addition to the Ridge axis a tad more west, the other thing I would like to see happen to this Euro run over the next 24-48hrs is to get rid of the area of diffluence earlier seen just above the GL by 12z Sat circled in black.  If that area could break down earlier it would cause the arctic air to race to our storm bombing it out quicker, and more importantly cause the blocking in the Atlantic to buckle the stream causing the LP center to come back N and West earlier and we would be in some serious business.  Instead it persist until about 6z-12z Sunday.  By then its too late the center of LP has already gained too much latitude and passes too far east before really bombing out for major impacts.  
*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 11 <a href=*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 11 Ecmwf_12" />
*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 11 <a href=*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 11 Ecmwf_13" />
*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 11 <a href=*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 11 Ecmwf_14" />


Here is 18z Sunday.  When that area of diffluence breaks down it allows the blocking to build in over the top too late turning the LP back into Maine indicated by the Red arrow coming off the Carolina coast.  We need that area of diffluence breaks down earlier.  If it does we would get a track more like the blue arrow coming off the Carolina coast, and whoa baby watch out if that happens.  
*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 11 <a href=*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 11 Ecmwf_15" />

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Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:11 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:EURO Ensembles are a hit

*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 11 Qn748l

Giggidy

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:11 pm

H5 of the EURO Ens look really really really good. There was actually a triple phase. The southern branch, the northern vort, and a piece of the PV

*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 11 2wna9zk

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Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:12 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:H5 of the EURO Ens look really really really good. There was actually a triple phase. The southern branch, the northern vort, and a piece of the PV

*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 11 2wna9zk

Giggidy giggidy!! The ensembles have been trending better

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:16 pm

Ind. members are impressive

*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 11 Eps_slp_50_east_16

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:18 pm

Giggity ditto x3!
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:22 pm

I was looking at the low placement map for the ensembles some bring it much closer than the actual run : ) Still alot of divergence but all within the same general area which is great.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:23 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:22 pm

NWS UPTON:

DEEP UPPER TROUGH THEN DIGS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
FRIDAY...AND STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SPIN UP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. LIGHT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIP THAT IMPACTS THE REGION AND THE PTYPE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR
EAST/WEST THAT LOW TRACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS IS
MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE...AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER THE
ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE WEST THAN
IT WAS PREVIOUSLY. 12Z CMC IS FASTER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE COMPARED
TO BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS SUPPORT FROM SOME OF THE GFS
MEMBERS...BUT NOT ALL. THE ECMWF TRACK WOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH WARM
AIR TO SURGE ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP PRECIP RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS
ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN COLD AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND IT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. WHAT ALSO REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS HOW FAR
WEST BANDING BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD. AS A RESULT...
SATURDAY NIGHT SEEMS TO BE SHAPING UP AS A BIT MORE INTERESTING THAN
SATURDAY...BUT THAT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:25 pm

They upping the anty on this now, sooner than I thought.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:36 pm

So guys and Gals for my area here cnj I know Ace can answer this but what am I looking at here most likely a rain event correct or can it snow and winds look to be terrible
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:37 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:So guys and Gals for my area here cnj I know Ace can answer this but what am I looking at here most likely a rain event correct or can it snow and winds look to be terrible

Still too early for those specifics

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Post by amugs Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:57 pm

OMG - that ridge in teh west moved a bit west - Frank yuo pointe dthi soout after teh 12Z rubns and like I have been honking we want that ridge over I - DA - HO!! Look at the mean - MOther of Pearls this si exciting - imagine this was Jan or Feb - I do not know if I would be able to .............

*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 11 F26n14


Last edited by amugs on Tue Oct 28, 2014 5:49 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by algae888 Tue Oct 28, 2014 5:02 pm

I know its the long range nam but it looks nice....
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141028+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_1000_500_thick.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141028+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141028+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
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Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 28, 2014 5:10 pm

@amugs wrote:OMG - that ridge in teh west moved a bit west - Frank yuo pointe dthi soout after teh 12Z rubns and like I have been honking we want that ridge over I - DA - HO!! Look at the mean - MOther of Pearls this si exciting - imagine this was Jan or Feb - I do not know if I would be able to .............

*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 11 F26n14

Oh man if only this were Jan Feb

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by amugs Tue Oct 28, 2014 5:50 pm

Scot I have been saying this all along but we MAY see something like this then as well - I know putting the positive vibes out to Mother Nature!!

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