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*BLOG: Halloween Forecast

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docstox12
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:03 pm

Would this not be a snow event? What diff does it make if it was JF? Is it too close to give us snows? GFS coming in now.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:04 pm

Those low placements have aaaaalOt THAT ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE US A BIG BLOW TO THE HEAD RAIN OR SNOW THE WIND WILL BE SCREAMING.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:16 pm

Wow the GFS is strong but the southern is too progressive but it seemed to be a bit slower. I'll trust in mugs that the 18z sucks lol
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:19 pm

Holy crap, if this came west its dumping 4-5 inches of rain over the ocean, wholly snowlly! Waiting on that west shift and slower phase. It looks like it improved slightly.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:21 pm

*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 12 18z_gf12
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:25 pm

WOW the NAM looks to be almost a perfect phase headed that way. progressing at almost the same speed right for each other.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:46 pm

Frank did you ever find the snow totals ensembles on wxbell, the stamp maps not the graph, I do not understand those graphs?
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:59 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Frank did you ever find the snow totals ensembles on wxbell, the stamp maps not the graph, I do not understand those graphs?

Do you mean this?

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_city.php

These charts are the only things I know if when it comes to ensembles. They do not have snow maps for ensembles.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:02 pm

No those are the graphs, yeah they really do they added them last year. You weren't a member. I even have old copies its like the euro stamps and i believe its a euro ensemble snow map. But maybe they only put it out in real winter time? If I ever find it I will let you know, but I know I remember a block of maps with all different senarios of snow totals.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:02 pm

Latest model verifications show EURO and UKMET leading the pack. May have to utilize UKMET some more, it is very good under 96 hours

*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 12 Post-564-0-29520100-1414522067

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:02 pm

Latest model verifications show EURO and UKMET leading the pack. May have to utilize UKMET some more, it is very good under 96 hours

*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 12 Post-564-0-29520100-1414522067

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:05 pm

JB is raving about the UKMET where is it located, I dont see it on wxbell.
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Post by HectorO Tue Oct 28, 2014 8:34 pm

Hope it stays all rain. Don't need any heavy wet snow with wind while the trees still have plenty leaves on them. Disaster in the making.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 8:40 pm

I know Hector, its looking that way possibly.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Oct 28, 2014 8:52 pm

Could we be looking at the third separate significant snow event in a four year span in the October 29 - November 6 time period?

These are usually a 1 in 10 year event for northern parts of our area, for south and east more like 1 in 30 year events. It would be odd to say the least to get another so close to the last two.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Oct 28, 2014 8:56 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Oct 28, 2014 8:53 pm

Im concerned about the wind here along the coast.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 8:56 pm

skins I think even if it is rain the wind will still lead to some power outages if this storm really cranks. Of course if we add snow over a inch or two it's a recipe for disaster.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:07 pm

Yeah no doubt jman we got alot rain here last week ground is saturated
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:10 pm

I just have a bad feeling, (at least up here) it will at least be partially snow with some if not a lot of accumulation) I could be dead wrong but there have been signs that its trending in that direction. NWS now has snow in my local forecast mixed with rain for Sat. Before was a chance of a shower.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:15 pm

Jman isnt their chance for snow to the coast here.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:19 pm

Where is point pleasant?
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:22 pm

Cnj northern ocean county where all the weather actions been these last years lol
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Post by Quietace Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:24 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Jman isnt their chance for snow to the coast here.
Way to early for details like P-Type

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:24 pm

Well I guess our basic area is in play, of course the closer to the coast you are the warmer it is, of course if this storm deepens and makes its own cold air like in 2011 then that will not be a issue.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:25 pm

Ace is right, lets not make too many speculations at this time.
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