*BLOG: Halloween Forecast
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docstox12
nutleyblizzard
CPcantmeasuresnow
Math23x7
algae888
Dunnzoo
Quietace
Sunflowers138
Snow88
amugs
sroc4
jmanley32
aiannone
Frank_Wx
18 posters
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Re: *BLOG: Halloween Forecast
Well I guess our basic area is in play, of course the closer to the coast you are the warmer it is, of course if this storm deepens and makes its own cold air like in 2011 then that will not be a issue.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: *BLOG: Halloween Forecast
Ace is right, lets not make too many speculations at this time.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: *BLOG: Halloween Forecast
Frank, it the storm potential maintains itself over the coming days, when will we have our first live chat?
Also, Tom (NjWeatherGuy) where are you?
Also, Tom (NjWeatherGuy) where are you?
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: *BLOG: Halloween Forecast
Math23x7 wrote:Frank, it the storm potential maintains itself over the coming days, when will we have our first live chat?
Also, Tom (NjWeatherGuy) where are you?
Thursday night, 10:45pm. It sucks that the GFS does not come out until 11:30pm. Can not wait until day light savings, which ironically is this weekend.
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Re: *BLOG: Halloween Forecast
Tonight's 00z and tomorrow run show a bomb IMO - so does this board - they are not showing the strength of that beastly ridge in the central west dam thing goes all the way up into Canada and it will force that northern vort to dig into the base of the trough The heights will rise for a good block (just enough) and lock this puppy in. You watch folks just my feeling all along - SREF, NAM, UKIE, EURO,CMC will agree - have a good night and wait for mornings 6Z runs.
Chat room to be activated in 48 hours!
Chat room to be activated in 48 hours!
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: *BLOG: Halloween Forecast
I may try to organize day chats as well starting this season, like between 1:00-2:00pm. Just for an hour or so.
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Re: *BLOG: Halloween Forecast
I like that idea Frank but thats not a great time most people work or go to school. OH mugs I love your thinking! No holds barred let it unleash!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: *BLOG: Halloween Forecast
FWIW, this is hr 84 of tonight's 0Z NAM. Note the 2 Lows, one off the Mid-Atlantic coast, the other in the Carolinas:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_1000_500_thick.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141029+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_1000_500_thick.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141029+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: *BLOG: Halloween Forecast
Math that looks promising for a big phase no?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: *BLOG: Halloween Forecast
Dang that ridge is insane!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: *BLOG: Halloween Forecast
jmanley32 wrote:Math that looks promising for a big phase no?
Need to see more frames, but it doesn't go that far so we have to wait another day to see if it shows it or not. For now, we have the GFS, CMC, and EURO.
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Re: *BLOG: Halloween Forecast
00z NAM was not a great run (not that it matters anyway, this model is the worst of all)
It closed of the upper level low over Georgia...
It closed of the upper level low over Georgia...
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Re: *BLOG: Halloween Forecast
Sorry guys this kind of flew under the radar for me, wasnt expecting winter action so soon. It seems the storm has optimal HP location it just needs to phase earlier. Im on mobile now so I cant see much but ill post with more detail later.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: *BLOG: Halloween Forecast
So who is going to be up for the 0z GFS? Me and several other students are in the Weather Center waiting for it to run.
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: *BLOG: Halloween Forecast
Mets2695 wrote:So who is going to be up for the 0z GFS? Me and several other students are in the Weather Center waiting for it to run.
I'll be here for GFS, GEFS, GGEM, maybe UKMET
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Re: *BLOG: Halloween Forecast
Ill just be here for the GFS, I have a lot of classes tomorrow haha
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: *BLOG: Halloween Forecast
I'll be here as long as my eyes can stay open lol def GFS.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: *BLOG: Halloween Forecast
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Sorry guys this kind of flew under the radar for me, wasnt expecting winter action so soon. It seems the storm has optimal HP location it just needs to phase earlier. Im on mobile now so I cant see much but ill post with more detail later.
Tom, nice to have you here!
Frank_Wx wrote:Math23x7 wrote:Frank, it the storm potential maintains itself over the coming days, when will we have our first live chat?
Also, Tom (NjWeatherGuy) where are you?
Thursday night, 10:45pm. It sucks that the GFS does not come out until 11:30pm. Can not wait until day light savings, which ironically is this weekend.
Look at this way Frank, it was beautiful today and was still bright out at 5 PM. Had daylight savings time not been extended one week nearly a decade ago, it would have been dark at 5 PM.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: *BLOG: Halloween Forecast
Mets2695 wrote:Ill just be here for the GFS, I have a lot of classes tomorrow haha
Lets switch over to the other thread
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