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*BLOG: Halloween Forecast

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docstox12
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*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 13 Empty Re: *BLOG: Halloween Forecast

Post by Math23x7 Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:00 pm

Frank, it the storm potential maintains itself over the coming days, when will we have our first live chat?

Also, Tom (NjWeatherGuy) where are you?

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:46 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:Frank, it the storm potential maintains itself over the coming days, when will we have our first live chat?

Also, Tom (NjWeatherGuy) where are you?

Thursday night, 10:45pm. It sucks that the GFS does not come out until 11:30pm. Can not wait until day light savings, which ironically is this weekend.

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Post by amugs Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:47 pm

Tonight's 00z and tomorrow run show a bomb IMO - so does this board - they are not showing the strength of that beastly ridge in the central west dam thing goes all the way up into Canada and it will force that northern vort to dig into the base of the trough The heights will rise for a good block (just enough) and lock this puppy in. You watch folks just my feeling all along - SREF, NAM, UKIE, EURO,CMC  will agree - have a good night and wait for mornings 6Z runs.

Chat room to be activated in 48 hours!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:47 pm

I may try to organize day chats as well starting this season, like between 1:00-2:00pm. Just for an hour or so.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:51 pm

I like that idea Frank but thats not a great time most people work or go to school. OH mugs I love your thinking! No holds barred let it unleash!
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:55 pm

FWIW, this is hr 84 of tonight's 0Z NAM. Note the 2 Lows, one off the Mid-Atlantic coast, the other in the Carolinas:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_1000_500_thick.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141029+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:55 pm

Math that looks promising for a big phase no?
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:56 pm

Dang that ridge is insane!
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:57 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Math that looks promising for a big phase no?

Need to see more frames, but it doesn't go that far so we have to wait another day to see if it shows it or not. For now, we have the GFS, CMC, and EURO.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:00 pm

00z NAM was not a great run (not that it matters anyway, this model is the worst of all)

It closed of the upper level low over Georgia...

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:06 pm

Sorry guys this kind of flew under the radar for me, wasnt expecting winter action so soon. It seems the storm has optimal HP location it just needs to phase earlier. Im on mobile now so I cant see much but ill post with more detail later.
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Post by aiannone Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:07 pm

So who is going to be up for the 0z GFS? Me and several other students are in the Weather Center waiting for it to run.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:08 pm

Mets2695 wrote:So who is going to be up for the 0z GFS? Me and several other students are in the Weather Center waiting for it to run.

I'll be here for GFS, GEFS, GGEM, maybe UKMET

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Post by aiannone Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:10 pm

Ill just be here for the GFS, I have a lot of classes tomorrow haha
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:12 pm

I'll be here as long as my eyes can stay open lol def GFS.
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:13 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Sorry guys this kind of flew under the radar for me, wasnt expecting winter action so soon. It seems the storm has optimal HP location it just needs to phase earlier. Im on mobile now so I cant see much but ill post with more detail later.

Tom, nice to have you here! Smile

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:Frank, it the storm potential maintains itself over the coming days, when will we have our first live chat?

Also, Tom (NjWeatherGuy) where are you?

Thursday night, 10:45pm. It sucks that the GFS does not come out until 11:30pm. Can not wait until day light savings, which ironically is this weekend.

Look at this way Frank, it was beautiful today and was still bright out at 5 PM. Had daylight savings time not been extended one week nearly a decade ago, it would have been dark at 5 PM.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:17 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Ill just be here for the GFS, I have a lot of classes tomorrow haha

Lets switch over to the other thread

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