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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:17 pm

EURO at 102...looks better but blocking not quite there like it is on the GFS. Lets see what happens though

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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:19 pm

Well at hour 96 it sure is cold, freezing line all the way down to Cape May

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:19 pm

Dang, IF wxbell wasn't so slow I could see all this grrr.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:23 pm

EURO shows just some light precip. It missed the phase, but the upper level maps show it being a step in the direction of the GFS. That phase is crucial though. It looks like guidance today does not want to make this a New England storm anymore. It will either be a coastal storm or no storm.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:26 pm

You can see what I mean. The main vort is still off the coast but there is no defined storm because the lead energy, or southern branch, skipped ahead so there was no phase. But this solution on the EURO could lead to a norlun / inverted trough type of development which could drop high amounts of snow in an isolated area

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:29 pm

Is there still a chance the Euro comes on board the GFS later out on other runs? How can you be so sure it is no longer a northern NE storm after one change in runs. IU am so glad I found you guys I would never get this kinda info anywhere else.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:34 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Is there still a chance the Euro comes on board the GFS later out on other runs?  How can you be so sure it is no longer a northern NE storm after one change in runs.  IU am so glad I found you guys I  would never get this kinda info anywhere else.

I meant to say the 12z guidance suggests this will no longer be an interior event, but yea it can still revert back to that idea. However, if the 500 mb pattern amplifies the way it did on 12z's today (meaning the trough in the Pac and PNA ridge in the west strengthen) then the northern stream energy has no choice but to dig into the mean trough in the northeast

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:37 pm

Gotcha, well I am hoping you are right that the 500mb pattern stays same. I like the 12z GFS, even if it means a bit (probably understatement) of trouble.
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Post by Snow88 Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:40 pm

12z Navgem
*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 4 28ckiko
*BLOG: Halloween Forecast - Page 4 10xxel3
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:41 pm

Even 12z Euro shows a inche of snow into NYC. But lesser winds. Still think these runs are going to change but the coastal was what I thought all along (at least in intensity and coastal location quite a bit over next few days).
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:43 pm

Am I reading that right ace is the precip frozen if so looks like gcoast gets about same wind and snow as GFS.
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:56 pm

The H5 maps are there for a good storm - just one run by the euro towards the gfs - time and patience - it's coming!! Again by Wed we'll see it and the board explodes. Could have a family reunion Friday night if all plays out right in the CHAT room!! Very Happy

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Post by algae888 Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:01 pm

i love it when im out all day and log on to see 6 pages of post. always know something good is happening. yes mugs i like the h5 setup. plus if this happens then we have 2 closed phased cutoffs in a week good trend for winter.
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Post by aiannone Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:26 pm

I'll be on for tonight's 0z runs and will chime in to look at 18z runs during class/dinner. Hope you all will be around tonight!
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:27 pm

I'll try mets, my old age setting in midnight and later is hard lol. But yeah I want to see. Frank, mugs what are you guys leaning towards at this point? A all out big storm or Euro or in between? Or unsure.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:28 pm

Al it is so great, I actually missed the GFS was with a client and when I logged on and say Franks posts I was like wow! What a storm!
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Post by aiannone Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:29 pm

Sounds good Jmanley! I will also have a little paragraph on my thoughts in collaboration with other thoughts from the meteorology department at the college.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:31 pm

Well I am sorry ur not down here if it is no longer a northern NE system but thus goes the weather. I am sure you will get your share this winter, that we will miss out on.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:56 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I'll try mets, my old age setting in midnight and later is hard lol.  But yeah I want to see.  Frank, mugs what are you guys leaning towards at this point?  A all out big storm or Euro or in between?  Or unsure.

I wish there was more high latitude blocking. The blocking is moderate around the Davis Strait and western Greenland. It's still possible the northerun stream vort closes off too soon and we go back to a scenario that would favor Alex. I would like to see the 00z suites  tonight. 

Off to work. Will be back by 11pm

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:58 pm

Okay see u on later Frank, I can get through the GFS and CMC but no way staying up for Euro lol.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:59 pm

Just for laughs, JMA model  Very Happy Shocked

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 4:16 pm

Hey its a model whats that showing 10-15 inches of snow, yeah I don't buy that, is it a LP like the GFS though?
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Post by algae888 Mon Oct 27, 2014 4:16 pm

my forecast from nws......

Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 55.

Friday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday
A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.

Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 49
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 4:18 pm

Yeah Al, same here lol, I bet that changes, of course the pros are not going to say anything till its rock solid.
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Post by algae888 Mon Oct 27, 2014 4:19 pm

nws disco...
SHARP CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THEN
ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CARVE AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
NY...AND THEN SFC LOW PRES FORMS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
LONG RANGE MODELS IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THESE
LOWS...BUT WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
THE REGION. THE ONE THING THAT THE MODELS HAVE IN COMMON IS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS FALLING
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS WILL BRING ABOUT PTYPE ISSUES FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ALL SNOW CONFINED TO INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SW
CT....AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW INTO NYC AND SOUTHERN CT. WILL KEEP
PRECIP ALL RAIN FOR LONG ISLAND. THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
IS HOW FAR WEST TO SPREAD THE PRECIP. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES. OBVIOUSLY...THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES BASED ON
THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS ALSO WAY TOO SOON TO DETERMINE HOW
MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...WILL ACCUMULATE.

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