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Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:39 pm

This thread will open beginning 00z runs tonight, with the GFS around 11:15 pm


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:16 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by algae888 Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:23 pm

i'll be up for gfs and cmc. nice to have something to track so early. frank why is the 00z nam not good. couldn't the ull over Georgia swing up the coast? plus with the trough so far south would it bring colder air into our area?
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:24 pm

@algae888 wrote:i'll be up for gfs and cmc. nice to have something to track so early. frank why is the 00z nam not good. couldn't the ull over Georgia swing up the coast? plus with the trough so far south would it bring colder air into our area?

I do not think I have ever seen something so dramatic...dig so far into the southeast. Just does not look right. I can understand Mid-Atlantic, even as far south as Virgina, but Georgia? Pshhh. Fo get about it. But yea, the cold air would still get here just no storm.


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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:24 pm

00z GFS has initialized

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Post by aiannone Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:25 pm

Here we go!
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:31 pm

Just some subtle differences through hour 24 (comparing to 12z GFS). Nothing eye popping.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:33 pm

Through hour 27, the ridge looks a tad stronger but the Pac energy (southern s/w) a tad weaker

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:35 pm

Hour 33, the Pac trough is hanging back a bit more which is good because the western ridge will not try to roll over this system.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:36 pm

Hey Frank, Idk if I necessarily agree that it wouldn't be good. With H5 closing off that far west/south, that would dynamically help to both decrease heights and rapidly deepen the surface cyclone further northwest. Because of that the direction of motion would follow those forcing mechanisms via QG theory.....just my opinion. I definitely don't think it's an optimal setup, but key pieces like that I think could definitely improve our chances.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:36 pm

Hour 39, the northern stream is digging more than it did on the 12z GFS

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Post by rb924119 Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:37 pm

The second forcing being WAA at the mid-levels and also at the surface.*

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:39 pm

Hour 45, northern stream definitely digging more than 12z and western ridge looks really good. Lets hope it does not dig too much

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Post by 2004blackwrx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:39 pm

Good to hear the word snow again. Your birds made me think bugs were on my screen.

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Post by aiannone Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:40 pm

So far, subtle differences, but ridge axis is slightly stronger, could make some difference.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:41 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Hey Frank, Idk if I necessarily agree that it wouldn't be good. With H5 closing off that far west/south, that would dynamically help to both decrease heights and rapidly deepen the surface cyclone further northwest. Because of that the direction of motion would follow those forcing mechanisms via QG theory.....just my opinion. I definitely don't think it's an optimal setup, but key pieces like that I think could definitely improve our chances.

My issue with it closing off so far south is that the blocking is not exactly west-east. It is over central Canada, Davis Strait, and west Greenland (west-based -NAO) and when you have a fast Pacific Jet off the coast allowing the western ridge to roll eastward, it would likely shun the storm out to sea. Whereas one that closes off near our area would bring precip into our area along with a deepened low.

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Post by aiannone Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:42 pm

Southern Stream is a little more amped on the 0z
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:43 pm

Hour 57, northern stream looks potent and poised to try and phase in with the southern branch as long as it does not eject away. Lets see...

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Post by aiannone Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:44 pm

0z GFS definitely digging more at hour 54 as compared to 12z
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:45 pm

Hour 66, I really like how this looks. More digging from northern stream, better ridge, trough axis on the east even looks sharper.

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Post by aiannone Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:47 pm

Interaction between northern stream and southern stream is much stronger on the 0z GFS at 66
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:47 pm

Hour 72 it has closed off over Kentucky

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Post by rb924119 Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:47 pm

I think the only way that the ridge would fold, though, is if the trough stayed positively tilted. If it tilts negative it would work in our favor because the ridge would start to build downstream, turning the flow more N/S. No?

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:48 pm

This looks good Very Happy

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Post by aiannone Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:48 pm

Hour 72, much more interaction, but it's taking place much further south.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:49 pm

Hour 75, this thing is digging like crazy. Lets see if it makes the turn

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