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Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1

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Post by rb924119 Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:05 pm

Frank, I think I may know why after looking at this. The front that is currently trekking through our area actually gets hung up out over the Atlantic. The southern wave doesn't really develop from any upper-level forcings at all-it develops from the general instability of the front itself. Once that circulation gets going, it starts working to drive the southern end of the front further south, and because the upper-levels are directly related to the surface temperature gradient of the front, they continue to move south as well. If that circulation "can be prevented" from developing, I think we may stand a much better shot at seeing this thing turn the corner.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:05 pm

Well that stinks. Cold and nothing exciting. Hoping it changes maybe the h5 will suddenly decide to dig less. Gfs has been consistent on that end run ots.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:07 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:07 pm

Man we ain't giving up huh rb. Still a few days to change and that certainly does happen.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:10 pm

I know it's bad 84 hrs out but the Nam drops way south but in last frame turns north abrptly. Not giving up lol
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Post by rb924119 Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:11 pm

Personally, I have given up. I think that with the consistency that's been shown the last couple of days is pretty hard to change, and I can't recall a setup like this that has worked out in the past. That's not to say it can't or it won't. I'm just stating what I think the reason is that the trough continues to dig, and what I think would need to change in order for us to luck out. That's all. And, as much of a sin as it may be to say this; I'm NOT a fan of big snows in October. We don't exactly have a good winter track record when those events do occur lmao I'd rather sacrifice a big early snow for a humdinger of a winter later on ahahah

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:12 pm

True we could at least have a good noreaster with rain that's okat this point
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:55 pm

Im thinking with the last runs this will miss our area thougt models may change today but doesnt look thst way ill take the cold now and the snow j,f,
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:00 pm

The GEM is odd, it ends up being two LP, one comes bit closer to coast and one goes OTS. Still model to model inconsistency. Lets see what the Euro has to show.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:02 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Frank, I think I may know why after looking at this. The front that is currently trekking through our area actually gets hung up out over the Atlantic. The southern wave doesn't really develop from any upper-level forcings at all-it develops from the general instability of the front itself. Once that circulation gets going, it starts working to drive the southern end of the front further south, and because the upper-levels are directly related to the surface temperature gradient of the front, they continue to move south as well. If that circulation "can be prevented" from developing, I think we may stand a much better shot at seeing this thing turn the corner.

Interesting observation

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:04 pm

And what are the chances of that happeneing? Sroc what is your take on the GFS and GEM?
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Post by sroc4 Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:19 pm

Im at work so havent had a chance to analyse in great detail.  I want to wait to see the Euro anyway, but overall today does not lean me much different than yesterday.  I still feel pretty confident with a LP track S and East of the BM with minimal precip impacts.  Wind along the coast, and wind chills are going to be what we remember about this storm.  But again still a little time for things to tick or tock slightly west or east.  The immediate coast still has to watch for a 50-75mile jog to the west which could be the difference of 1-2 inches of rain with 25-35MPH sustained winds and higher gusts compared to 0.25-0.5" rain with 15-25MPH with a higher gusts with a jog to the east. Bottom line is it just wont be that horrible.  Overall Jman I have not given up entirely but the cerebral part of me recognizes this isn't going to be the big one...which is fine by me at this time of year.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:22 pm

okey dokey, hopefully this will not be a trend come DJF. Now that I know what that means : ) I will keep watch of the models as I and most of us know it ain't over till it passes us by. So many storms have sprung fast ones on use, missing or surprising us.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:28 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:okey dokey, hopefully this will not be a trend come DJF. Now that I know what that means : )  I will keep watch of the models as I and most of us know it ain't over till it passes us by.  So many storms have sprung fast ones on use, missing or surprising us.

Absolutely.  I hope as we progress into Dec and eventually Jan the -NAO becomes more pronounced to slow down our flow off the coast.  Because if we are going to have amped Northern energy screaming into the CONUS from the arctic circle there better be something to slow down the southern branch for some phasing, otherwise cold and dry it will remain.


Last edited by sroc4 on Wed Oct 29, 2014 2:13 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:33 pm

U are ruining my day sroc lol (jk, although things are pretty stressful at this time the excitement of tracking a storm made up for it but if its a bust then grrrr), life goes on in the weenie world I guess, still watching though.
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Post by Analog96 Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:39 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Im at work so havent had a chance to analyse in great detail.  I want to wait to see the Euro anyway, but overall today does not lean me much different than yesterday.  I still feel pretty confident with a LP track S and East of the BM with minimal precip impacts.  Wind along the coast, and wind chills are going to be what we remember about this storm.  But again still a little time for things to tick or tock slightly west or east.  The immediate coast still has to watch for a 50-75mile jog to the west which could be the difference of 1-2 inches of rain with 25-35MPH sustained winds and higher gusts compared to 0.25-0.5" rain with 15-25MPH with a higher gusts with a jog to the east. Bottom line is it just wont be that horrible.  Overall Jman I have not given up entirely but the cerebral part of me recognizes this isn't going to be the big one...which is fine by me at this time of year.

Good point.

All we need at this point is to see coastal storms developing, which we are.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:50 pm

1-2 inches of rain with 25-35 sdustained winds with higer gusts would be fun I'll go fly a kite lol. I'll take anything at this point.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 2:14 pm

Euro looks promising at 84 hrs. close to coast.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 2:23 pm

Dang Euro way off shore in fact I think it trended east a bit. Still brings wind gusts to 40-50 and colder temps. If by Friday 00z things don't change I think its a wrap.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Oct 29, 2014 2:49 pm

we still have to remember this storm is 3 days away tonight and tomorrow runs
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Post by Sunflowers138 Wed Oct 29, 2014 2:54 pm

Any chance skins? 3 days away and I've lost hope, but don't the models show a hit then ots then bring it back for a hit?

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Post by Sunflowers138 Wed Oct 29, 2014 2:55 pm

What I meant is "don't the models usually show a hit, then ots, then a hit again"

Generally speaking. :-)

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 29, 2014 3:05 pm

Keep in mind the models play games with us. Someone who understands how the upper level pattern works will have more success in this field than someone who reads models verbatim. 

@rb- that was a good explanation about the cold front and the instability off the coast. It actually makes a ton of sense. You can pretty much call it the lead vort, which is something we did not want to happen but looks like it will. 

As of now, I'm not forecasting any big storm besides some rain showers and super cold temps for this time of year come Saturday night into Sunday.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 29, 2014 3:33 pm

I advise people to keep checking back though because it's still fairly early and there could be last minute trends beginning tonight or tomorrow. I've seen it before.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Oct 29, 2014 3:44 pm

That's what im saying its still early we have a few days here so lets continue to watch and see I would think by tonight and tommorrows runs things may change.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 3:57 pm

You changed your forecast scroll Frank, its all over KOD lol. I certainly have seen tricks too, especially with the models being kinda iffy this year especially with the tropics, whats to say they handle other types of storms any differently. I have been so caught up in this there is actually a system north of the Antilles that has a chance of development, I wonder if that has any interaction with slowing that front.
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