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Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 3:58 pm

FWIW the Farmers almanac does say " Halloween Trick: stormy weather" so maybe the models are gonna play a trick and revert on Friday, watch if mugs is right (who is hiding today lol, then he is def King all winter IMO.
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Post by amugs Wed Oct 29, 2014 3:59 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:That's what im saying its still early we have a few days here so lets continue to watch and see I would think by tonight and tommorrows runs things may change.
Out at a conference at Panasonic Corp of NA no wireless connection go figure! Rb made a great about the front, too many vorts around the east coast IMO, set looks good but like with 2-22 storm s & e need that massive ridge to be more over the spine of the Rockies for the coastal. There will be one but not the impact we were seeing on Monday that is for sure. Still sometime but need a couple of hundred mile western jog if you will to give us good affects from this. Can it happen sure will it, only time will tell but I ain't confident at this time. (10% chance)

That northern vort dug all the way down to ga for god's sake way to far S - just again like end of last winter s & e. I like the fact we have something to track and there are coastal s forming but forDJF this pattern needs to evolve better. Sucks we have the block, PNA and shortwave timing is off as is placement. Makes you appreciate a snowstorm and more so a blizzard when it occurs!

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 4:02 pm

There is mugs what a coincidence, maybe thats a sign : )
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 4:12 pm

Frank I knew I was right, : ) Most recent tweet from Maue:

Turned back on ECMWF EPS (51-member) snowfall "postage stamps", mean & control for CONUS & regions

Some show some big hits, so its not totally off table.

Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 6 Euro_e10
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 4:20 pm

# 2-26 Granted across 50 stamps it;s not many but its something.

Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 6 Eps_sn10
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 29, 2014 5:30 pm

Your mission: find the link

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Post by HectorO Wed Oct 29, 2014 5:36 pm

I think they were just a little too excited about the temps at the beginning of the week even Sunday. They were saying 43 for my area, now they're saying 52. Still think the temps could be in the high 40s with cloud coverage and rain.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 5:38 pm

they are under the samle place as the eps 50 stamp euro ensembles. : )

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yeps_members.php

You will see the added tabs with mean and control below MSLP. For those that are not paying members of wxbell this link will not be able to be opened.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 5:42 pm

Frank I didn't have to find it as I posted those images not maue. I knew exactly where they were once I read that.
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Post by Analog96 Wed Oct 29, 2014 6:11 pm

Here's the deal... it seems like everything in the last month or so has trended slower this fall.

This is not a good thing or a bad thing; it just is.

Depending on each individual setup, it can be good or bad.

There may be times this winter when we want something to go slower, and it will help us.

There may be times when going slower creates a warmer and wetter solution.

There may be times when going slower pushes a system OTS, like this one looks to be.

But it seems like everything is slower than progged initially.

Just keep that in mind and apply the biases as we go forward!

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Post by Angela0621 Wed Oct 29, 2014 7:31 pm

Hi Frank. My daughter is driving from south Florida to nj this weekend. She was planning to leave Saturday morning early. Is this ok or should she wait till Sunday to leave ?
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 7:34 pm

I know the models pretty much show a OTS just offshore senario but remember what Frank said starting tonight into Friday and crunch time things can change, and they have before and drop a unexpected surprise, just like last week.  Not saying it will happen but a trend a little bit west IMO is a chance and not a tiny chance maybe a medium chance.  Cape looks to get blasted with wind, hey Alex wanna go out to the Cape : ) Stronger winds could also affect the area here depending on any westward trend. Is anyone staying up to see the models tonight or are you all pretty much done with this?
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:04 pm

@Angela0621 wrote:Hi Frank. My daughter is driving from south Florida to nj this weekend. She was planning to leave Saturday morning early. Is this ok or should she wait till Sunday to leave ?

Hello Angela,

She should consider leaving on Sunday. Even though the storm is likely to miss our area on Saturday, it will not miss the Mid-Atlantic area by North Carolina and Virginia. It would be best if she waits if she wants to avoid the rain and windy conditions.

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Post by algae888 Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:06 pm

jman i'll be staying up to see the models tonight and every night thru april.lol i think most of us on here will too. you know if the models are correct and this storm is a miss for us, we were so so close to being a hit. just a 100 miles or so west and bam. thats why its so hard to predict what a season will bring. even with all the ingrediants in place sometimes it just doesn't work out for us.
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Post by Angela0621 Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:11 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Angela0621 wrote:Hi Frank. My daughter is driving from south Florida to nj this weekend. She was planning to leave Saturday morning early. Is this ok or should she wait till Sunday to leave ?

Hello Angela,

She should consider leaving on Sunday. Even though the storm is likely to miss our area on Saturday, it will not miss the Mid-Atlantic area by North Carolina and Virginia. It would be best if she waits if she wants to avoid the rain and windy conditions.


Thank you Frank

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:13 pm

@mugs and @CP, if you're reading, check your private messages.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:37 pm

Al you are very right, and 100 miles ain't that far, this could very well do that in either direction, maybe not even be shown on the models.  How many times have we seen a storm happening and they up the snow or rain totals because of its position.  This is why I say there is still a chance, maybe small maybe not that it may be being sampled wrong etc.  Def watching tonight where all the proper sampling should be starting to come in right.  Still got 4 more runs of Euro before Friday night.  Things can change, or not.

On a second note it looks like we already have something else to track within the 240 range, pretty potent little LP. It is def a good sign to have all these sytems coming up one or more is bound to get the weenies jumping up and down!
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Post by Angela0621 Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:49 pm

@Angela0621 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Angela0621 wrote:Hi Frank. My daughter is driving from south Florida to nj this weekend. She was planning to leave Saturday morning early. Is this ok or should she wait till Sunday to leave ?

Hello Angela,

She should consider leaving on Sunday. Even though the storm is likely to miss our area on Saturday, it will not miss the Mid-Atlantic area by North Carolina and Virginia. It would be best if she waits if she wants to avoid the rain and windy conditions.


Thank you Frank




One more question. What if she was to leave Saturday and drive to South Carolina. Would that be a miss for the storm for her ?
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:53 pm

@Angela0621 wrote:
@Angela0621 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Angela0621 wrote:Hi Frank. My daughter is driving from south Florida to nj this weekend. She was planning to leave Saturday morning early. Is this ok or should she wait till Sunday to leave ?

Hello Angela,

She should consider leaving on Sunday. Even though the storm is likely to miss our area on Saturday, it will not miss the Mid-Atlantic area by North Carolina and Virginia. It would be best if she waits if she wants to avoid the rain and windy conditions.


Thank you Frank




One more question. What if she was to leave Saturday and drive to South Carolina. Would that be a miss for the storm for her ?

South Carolina will experience rain showers as well through the day Saturday, but winds may not be as bad and the rain will be lighter compared to North Carolina. Use your motherly instincts on that one ☺

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 29, 2014 9:07 pm

Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 6 October_29_2014_90157_PM_EDT

The ECMWF Ens, which originally showed a potent coastal storm, have backed off and do not even keep H5 closed anymore. You can see how essentially the upper air pattern went from looking promising to looking like crap. Fast Pacific jet is the main culprit keeping the flow zonal.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:15 pm

Joe Bastardi not giving up. We'll see I guess

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:16 pm

I know he is too much. His video sounded convincing.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:38 pm

Okay, really he had top throwSandy in his tweet, not necessary! He is trying to hype this so much. His map looks like a possible solution but no it isn't no Sandy so why even mention her name. Up here that name puts a bad feeling in everyone. If he is right and it does what his map shows woah. Not counting on it.
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Post by HectorO Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:48 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Okay, really he had top throwSandy in his tweet, not necessary!  He is trying to hype this so much.  His map looks like a possible solution but no it isn't no Sandy so why even mention her name.  Up here that name puts a bad feeling in everyone.  If he is right and it does what his map shows woah.  Not counting on it.

It's bastardi, what did you expect? LOL
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Post by HectorO Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:51 pm

@Analog96 wrote:Here's the deal... it seems like everything  in the last month or so has trended slower this fall.

This is not a good thing or a bad thing; it just is.

Depending on each individual setup, it can be good or bad.

There may be times this winter when we want something to go slower, and it will help us.

There may be times when going slower creates a warmer and wetter solution.

There may be times when going slower pushes a system OTS, like this one looks to be.

But it seems like everything is slower than progged initially.

Interesting.... Not sure I see a problem with how things are trending right now. I don't think things are bad right now for the future winter and winter lovers.

Just keep that in mind and apply the biases as we go forward!
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