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Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:36 am

Woah a mess on NAM at hr 54, all strung out.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:53 am

And it finally winds up after the part ahead exits NE, and its OTS too, very close with precip in southern jersey showing a inch or so.  Winds sustained 10m winds around 20+ kts coastal and inland about maybe 10-15 miles, wouldn't take much of a jog to up those winds a lot.  We could be dealing with quite a windstorm even without the precip.  Gebnerally speaking is there a correlation between sustained winds and gusts, for instance if winds are sustained 25-35mph what would the likely highest gusts be?  Or is there not a correlation?

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:59 am

NWS excerpt:

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:04 pm

I'm not near my computer to look closer but I'm hearing chatter about the 12z CMC showing a big time inverted trough?
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:08 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:I'm not near my computer to look closer but I'm hearing chatter about the 12z CMC showing a big time inverted trough?

Would not say big time, but it does show one which enhances rain over the area for much of the day Saturday.

Right now Saturday looks pretty crappy. Overcast with a cold rain at times.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:10 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:I'm not near my computer to look closer but I'm hearing chatter about the 12z CMC showing a big time inverted trough?

All three models have been showing it to varying degrees the last 24 hrs or so.  CMC has it most pronounced focusing the precip once again similar to the last system focuses over central NJ coast and LI.  I think that is going to need to be now casted just like the last storm, where certain areas will see enhanced forcing and precip totals.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Post by amugs Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:15 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:I'm not near my computer to look closer but I'm hearing chatter about the 12z CMC showing a big time inverted trough?

YES, 12Z GFS tried too and failed, closed the low off in the Ohio River Valley - DO NOT HAVE COLOR MAPS THOUGH - BLACK AND WHITES Twisted Evil - When in God's name are they going to stop this 1970's crap!!

Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 8 622_100

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Post by amugs Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:18 pm

sroc4 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:I'm not near my computer to look closer but I'm hearing chatter about the 12z CMC showing a big time inverted trough?

All three models have been showing it to varying degrees the last 24 hrs or so.  CMC has it most pronounced focusing the precip once again similar to the last system focuses over central NJ coast and LI.  I think that is going to need to be now casted just like the last storm, where certain areas will see enhanced forcing and precip totals.

Skins, Ace and Isotherm (Tom) get nailed once again - you watch - their storm just like the Nor'easter we just had - DOC, CP and SNOW are going to commit Mad Harry Caray if this patterns keeps up and I will be dethroned king by said members!!

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:22 pm

Hey mugs, any maps you would like me to post with pretty colors from wxbell?  Its so very close, IMO the models are at a point where I agree it may well be a nowcast.  It does not appear that the rain coincides with the wind, which is cool because I can go out and observe the wind (waiting on getting a handheld anemometer (any recommended brands?)  They I can report accurate winds.  Winds IMO could easily gust to 50 maybe more on Sat-Sun, and depending on where rain sets up could coincide but at this time looks to not be the case.  Maybe the models will not get this until its on top of us or closer that is.  I would be shocked if it was really close and it would be quite a storm if it did.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:26 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:23 pm

Also another thought if the rain saturates enough (although for now does not look like a lot, could weaken trees a bit to those winds.  We will see.  If we get anything at all other than sunshine at this point I will be happy, I am over the excitement we had Monday.  Maybe we get a snowstorm later in November?

What would a inverted trough do for us, and it appears the system comes in two LP now rather than one until it phases passing the bench mark. Is it possible the models are still having trouble with this, even though they have similar solution??

BTW also read VA HWO winds 35-45kts with higher gust dang! Doesn't have to come much closer to bring us some crazy winds.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:28 pm

mugs check your PM, I sent you something.

And mugs the last one I got pummeled pretty good too, not like LI but it was still pretty wild.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:51 pm

FWIW, the Chinese model (CMA) had not shown a storm until now and its within the benchmark! If this verifies oh boy and actually the CMA had a poretty good track record with the tropics.

Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 8 Cma11
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:56 pm

Second larger part appears closer in by a bit (40+ kt 900mb winds sustained dang!), CMA does not have preip maps or a way to zoom in but I got a closer look this way.

Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 8 Cma_210

And JB is still not giving up he said wait until tomorrows models, as the pattern is changed a little bit?  I dunno.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Oct 30, 2014 2:01 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Also another thought if the rain saturates enough (although for now does not look like a lot, could weaken trees a bit to those winds.  We will see.  If we get anything at all other than sunshine at this point I will be happy, I am over the excitement we had Monday.  Maybe we get a snowstorm later in November?

What would a inverted trough do for us, and it appears the system comes in two LP now rather than one until it phases passing the bench mark.  Is it possible the models are still having trouble with this, even though they have similar solution??

BTW also read VA HWO winds 35-45kts with higher gust dang!  Doesn't have to come much closer to bring us some crazy winds.

Jman here is what an intverted trough is:
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/126/

As far as the two lows here is why.  If I was not at work I would show the image of the satellite with the pieces circled.  Here is the link to the satellite loop:
http://mapmaker.aos.wisc.edu/scr3/sat/g8/g8wvflash.html
The southern energy that is the remnants of Ana from the Pac is diving SE ward riding the pacific jet.  Look at the area of slight spin centered over N Missouri/Iowa...thats it.  The northern energy is lagging behind to the north.  Look at the area NW of the GL or SW of the Hudson Bay.  Its diving towards the conus via the polar jet.  Pac jet energy will eventually catch up to a stalled frontal boundary that is associated with the STJ just off the east coast.  This can easily be seen by the line of clouds streaming from SW to NE just off the coast.  If you look at it in the loop you can easily see how it extends all the way over the Fla panhandle and into the GOM.  When the southern energy meets up with that front off the coast a surface LP will try to form along the front and head N and east along it which is what I believe we are seeing on the models.  The northern energy is such a potent piece of energy because the PNA ridge is so amped that it closes itself off as it rounds the base of the trough somewhere around Va give or take a state. This spawns the second LP.  The blocking we have slows down the first low and allows the second to catch up and all three jets phase but to far to our N and east.  The surface LP looks to get down into the 970's!! up into Nova Scotia area. The reason its just a tad to far to the east is that IMO the blocking is not quite strong enough to fend off the PNA ridge from progressing eastward throughout this process. This in turn cause our trough axis to be just too far east when it goes neg and phases the three jets.

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WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by sroc4 Thu Oct 30, 2014 2:05 pm

Like JB with a system this potent I would def keep an eye on the current observations. Tonight I am really going to look at the satellite loops and see if there is any funny business going on

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 2:57 pm

Yeah I think JB can be a bit wishcast at times but this makes sense because so many things are at play and I see the possibility of some type of change, I find it highly doubtful that everything goes exactly as the models that could make all the difference. Note the Euro brings the first close closer and really gets cape RL and eastern CT/LI.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Oct 30, 2014 3:01 pm

Im not too excited about this, the low seems to look good around Hatteras but because its closed the vort just kicks to the east before eventually getting picked up in the flow and bombs to give parts of Atlantic Canada some snow. Not too atypical for this time of year.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 3:02 pm

So I am guessing no chat tonight?  Unless sroc finds some funny business lol.

Yeah I am losing interest too but still very interested to see what this will do, tracking ain't over till its over, which is when it passes us by in my book until then anything is possible : )
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Post by algae888 Thu Oct 30, 2014 6:09 pm

well 18z gfs very interesting. precip is much further west. give coastal nj, LI and conn over on inch of rain. and mets looks like you are going to get a good amount of snow if it is correct
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 6:10 pm

Really al maybe a last minute trend. Let's see 00z
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Post by algae888 Thu Oct 30, 2014 6:16 pm

it looks like the 1st low slows down and the the 2nd low phase with it just north of LI. looks very intense and slowed down considerably after passing us. crushes maine and new Hampshire and eastern canada. man if it could some how slow down a little more an phase off of NJ then we could see snow.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 6:19 pm

Dang it is Several Hundred miles West AND Within the benchmark. Gives a huge dose snow up north and even some wrap around the area. This def ups anty on the wind too if true. See if this becomes trend. I'll check maps snow etc when home bout 20min
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 6:20 pm

This what I been saying. Not to back off. But it is 18 and mugs has said he is skepically of it.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 6:23 pm

Al if that is all snow up north it's 3+ qpf!
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Post by algae888 Thu Oct 30, 2014 6:23 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Dang it is Several Hundred miles West AND Within the benchmark. Gives a huge dose snow up north and even some wrap around the area. This def ups anty on the wind too if true. See if this becomes trend. I'll check maps snow etc when home bout 20min

jman that run was a huge difference from 12z and yesterdays runs. if you can post snow map would like to see.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 6:23 pm

I Will It's Gonna Be Nuts I'm mobile. Be home soon.
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Post by algae888 Thu Oct 30, 2014 6:26 pm

it looks like conn. would see some snow from this run
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