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Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1

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Post by aiannone Thu Oct 30, 2014 6:37 pm

Wait what just happened with the 18z runs. I've been busy all day and now I hear it shifted way west and I get a snowstorm here in NERN Vt?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 6:45 pm

Yes mets posting images now, WAY west like due north into RI cape area. A foot of snow and over 2 feet in maine! If this is right talk about models waiting till the last minute. Now thats its started a west trend it could come even more west.

Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 9 18z_sn10
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 6:46 pm

Closer up view, this is crazy! I said Franks scroll was a KOD, as soon he takes it down look what happens!

Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 9 18z_sn10
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 6:48 pm

Winds are going to really howl, for a time they hit 30+ sustained for our area Al!

Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 9 18z_wi10
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 6:52 pm

50-100 miles west al and we get the rain and regardless of snow man those winds are going to be gusting to 60mph.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 6:55 pm

Look at how far west it came, and then heads more due north than before, 30+ inches in Maine seems a bit extreme, if this shows for 00z or even further west then I was right lol

Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 9 18z_gf13
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 6:56 pm

Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 9 18z_6610
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 6:58 pm

Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 9 18z_7210
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Post by algae888 Thu Oct 30, 2014 6:59 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:50-100 miles west al and we get the rain and regardless of snow man those winds are going to be gusting to 60mph.

jman I do not think we need it to go west. we need the pieces to come together sooner and draw in the cold air while precip is still falling. that means the 2 lows phase some where south of us. I do not think it will happen but still a small possibility. hey why don't we go visit mets in Vermont this weekend and crash his dorm.lol
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:00 pm

LOL, wish I could, lets see if 00z shows similar, its one run as we know halloween trick! ok, well whatever it wants to do snow is creeping this way. It made a huge change from all the other models except its in line with the bad JMA.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:01 pm

Your right Al if it goes anymore west then it will be on top of use and we will get the dry slot. So what is it that you think happened in this run?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:02 pm

I see, they were able to phase the first storm in front must have slowed on this run, blocking?
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Post by algae888 Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:06 pm

here's the thing jman there is so much energy at 500mb with very cold air and a warm ocean so maybe models are having a hard time figuring out what happens at the surface and where it happens. all the ingredients are there for a big storm. so yes lets see what happens tonight.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:07 pm

I sure as heck will be up you?  I hope it isn't a total hiccup, kocking on wood ever so hard. JB eluded to the sea temps, IMO a lot of the storms this year have had last minute trends to give us a storm with little warning. Even if its just rain (right now they have about .5-.75 for us, but the winds will be the big problem, especially if this cranks even more.
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Post by algae888 Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:10 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I see, they were able to phase the first storm in front must have slowed on this run, blocking?

yes def slowed down blocking looked stronger. plus the low closed off over the south east and opens up before it hits our area and then closes back off once it passes us. would have liked to have another model show something similar.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:13 pm

Well i don't trut the NAM so 18z this is all we have to go by. wait did you check NAVGEM?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:14 pm

NAVGEM is further west too, it elongaates nd then gets bck together if it doesnt split then we are in for it wether it be rain or snow (snow looks like a outlier now, but hey its becoming the trend past 4 years
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Post by algae888 Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:22 pm

look at how much closer they are...
18z hr 54
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php
12z hr 60
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:33 pm

Links didnt work, but I will compare on wxbell.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:36 pm

Wow thats a big difference, do you have the same bias against the 18z as mugs? Is there any validity to that that you see, I mean we are less than 48 hrs out to this thing getting going and the GFS changed so drastically, sroc, you said you were gonna look to see if any funny stuff was going on, well what is your take on this?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:40 pm

Jeeze it digs even further south, into SC on that run, I wonder how that factors in, doesn't make much sense other than if the first LP slowed a lot.  I do remember people on here and JB talking about the blocking possibly being undermodeled.

Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 9 Gfs_5010
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Post by algae888 Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:44 pm

jman its only one model and one run. we have been fooled by the gfs before. what I couldn't understand from previous runs was the absence of precip on the western side of the 2 lows. you would think that an intense storm would throw back precip at least to the coast. the storm wasn't that far east of the bm. maybe the models are (at least this model) is starting to get a better hanlde on it. we'll see tonight
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:48 pm

Yep still interesting to see such a change after so many consistent runs that I even figured it was not going to waver (however I wishcast it lol)
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:52 pm

Not just one model 18z NAVGEM is similar but weaker (the weaker part is not surprising the NAVGEM has weaker a lot. Same thing happens here from hr 54 to hr 66 the LP in front doesn't really budge from the cape area. The blocking must be stronger.

Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 9 Nav_pr10
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:56 pm

OMG, time to get the winter coats our for at least a little while, sheesh, yes just one run but the cold has been something we have been talking about all a long.

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