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Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1

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Post by aiannone Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:50 pm

78, its really digging, but could be a little to far south for our area
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Post by Artechmetals Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:50 pm

Hey frank hope you and everyone are doing well , back to tracking hoping this season is better than last . Are you talking about snow with this storm and if yes , will temps be able to support snow?
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:50 pm

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Post by aiannone Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:51 pm

This has more digging, but its in the same location as 12z which went OTS
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:51 pm

Hour 84..here we go...trough making transition from neutral to negative

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:53 pm

Hour 87, very strong closed off vort over North Carolina. Too far south, I think

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Post by aiannone Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:53 pm

87 on 0z looks way stronger and not as strung out as 12z. Also, trough is more negative.
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Post by 2004blackwrx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:53 pm

I rather have south then north or west at this point, this early in the year.

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Post by aiannone Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:54 pm

The extent of how far south this is, tells me its going to want to go OTS
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Post by rb924119 Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:54 pm

H5 is pretty impressive at 84......sub-534 dam heights in the center of that thing.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:54 pm

Hour 90 GFS is beginning to interact with the moisture off the coast left from southern branch...probably going to carry it out to sea. Lets see though

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:55 pm

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Wowzers

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Post by aiannone Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:56 pm

0z GFS is actually west of 12z
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:57 pm

Yea, out to sea it goes. It dug too far south. Though not as far south as the NAM. But we need this to either A) not dig that far south or B) make the pivot east sooner

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Post by rb924119 Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:57 pm

D*MNNNNNN near miss.......

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:58 pm

Mets2695 wrote:0z GFS is actually west of 12z

Yea, and trend is our friend. That was a much better run than 12z. Everything at H5 looked better.

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Post by aiannone Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:58 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Yea, out to sea it goes. It dug too far south. Though not as far south as the NAM. But we need this to either A) not dig that far south or B) make the pivot east sooner

It is OTS, but it is definitely west of 12z and stronger
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:58 pm

@rb924119 wrote:D*MNNNNNN near miss.......

Yup, close. A pubic hair away.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:59 pm

Yeah Frank, I agree. I think the pivot-point is the key in this one. Still tons of time to watch this unfold, especially since the main driver is still north of the Arctic Circle where we have nearly zero observations of it lmao

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Post by aiannone Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:00 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:D*MNNNNNN near miss.......

Yup, close. A pubic hair away.


LMAO!
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Post by rb924119 Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:02 am

Welp, I'm signing off for the evening fellers. I'll probably check back in tomorrow, but happy model-watching in the meantime!!! It may be rather interesting to see what the ensembles do with this, and also if the EURO tries to make some moves. We shall see. 'Night everybody!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:03 am

@rb924119 wrote:Welp, I'm signing off for the evening fellers. I'll probably check back in tomorrow, but happy model-watching in the meantime!!! It may be rather interesting to see what the ensembles do with this, and also if the EURO tries to make some moves. We shall see. 'Night everybody!!

Always enjoy your analysis. Have a good night, rb.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:03 am

Frank and mets, sorry I missed whole thing, but fatherly duties called, I read back a little so we have improvements or about the same?
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:05 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Frank and mets, sorry I missed whole thing, but fatherly duties called, I read back a little so we have improvements or about the same?

Big improvements, in my opinion.

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Post by aiannone Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:07 am

Big improvements indeed. Correct me if im wrong Frank, but if it did not dig as far south we would have had a better soln on our hands.
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