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Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Oct 29, 2014 5:55 am

Today model runs will be interesting to watch
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 6:01 am

Although the ensemble low positions looked to move west and are more concentrated toward the coast, I think this run was ok, not a major change but correct me if I am wrong it make a few steps in the right direction.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 6:03 am

should be skins, this may be a last minuter too.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 6:15 am

Well I am not liking Uptons take:

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEVELOPING 850-500 HPA CLOSED
LOW DIVES SE FROM THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SE OF THE AREA. APPEARS
WILL SEE SUFFICIENT WEAK DYNAMICAL FORCING TO PRODUCE ISOLD-SCT
-SHRA OVER THE AREA AS A RESULT.

THIS CLOSED LOW BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY...THAT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
SATURDAY NIGHT. NOTE THE GFS FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN HOW
FAR E IT KEEPS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD...SO LEANED TOWARDS A
NON-GFS SOLUTION FOR POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS HAVE
LIKELY POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA AND HAVE CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS THAT NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA
COULD ULTIMATELY END UP DRY FROM THIS SYSTEM - HOWEVER DO NOT HAVE
CONFIDENCE TO GO BELOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. APPEARS SOLUTION
FOR THIS SYSTEM IS CONVERGING TO ONE WHERE FOR THE MOST PART THE
COLD AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE IN ENOUGH TIME TO PRODUCE ANY WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS N OF LONG ISLAND
SOUND...AND POSSIBLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND WESTERN NE NJ...IF THE COLD AIR MOVES IN FAST ENOUGH
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END THERE. FOR NOW...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT...IN PARTICULAR HIGHER ELEVATIONS -
SAY THOSE ABOVE 1000-1500 FT - COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION. AS IS USUAL IN THESE RAIN/SNOW CASES...THE HEAVIER
THE RATE OF PRECIPITATION FALL THE GREATER THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ALL
SNOW...AND THE LIGHTER THE RATE OF PRECIPITATION THE GREATER THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR ALL RAIN. ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NE NJ IT APPEARS THAT THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY
IF NOT ALL RAIN...SO HAVE FORECASTED ACCORDINGLY. ON THE WHOLE
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF MOST AREAS THAT DO SEE ANY
SNOWFALL RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATION - AND THEN MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES IF AT ALL - BEING AT ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 1000-1500
FT.

GUSTY NE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY E ZONES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO MAYBE 40 MPH POSSIBLE....WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO MAYBE 30 MPH POSSIBLE OVER W ZONES.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 6:32 am

According to Raynos video yesterday evening not going to be a issue for the area, guess its a done deal . models are agreeing pretty close, unless there is a drastic change I dunno I am starting to lose hope. Mugs, where is your enthusiasm for us! If NWS, Rayno etc are all wrong and Frank gets it right I think he needs to go pro lol.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Oct 29, 2014 6:57 am

It seems generally speaking all 3 major models are starting to converge on a soln although the finer details are still not set in stone.  The two main themes of the 00z runs is 1) the northern vort digs and closes off a bit too far south, and 2) the ridge axis is just too far east forcing the base of the mean trough axis to be too far east by the time the trough axis want to pivot into a neg position.  As a result the surface LP passes S and East of the bench mark limiting the precipitation impacts.  There are still some differences; however, in the amt of precip and just how far west the bulk of the precip makes it.  Make no doubt about it the wind, esp along the coast, and the coldest temps of the season will still be felt.

I think it was Rb who mentioned it over night, the northern energy as of the 00z last night was still way up in extreme N Canada/edge of the Arctic circle where there are not a lot of recording stations.  So the next 24 hrs we should have better sampling of both the southern and northern stream energy.  We will have to see if the N vort digs as deep as is currently modeled.  The positioning of the ridge axis is what worries me the most.  A track S and E is looking more and more likely with minimal impacts, but crazier things have happened when there is still 3days to go.

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Post by Analog96 Wed Oct 29, 2014 7:47 am

It doesn't seem like a big deal for us.

It would be nice if we could at least see a few flakes flying.

The 06Z GFS did step a little in the right direction.

It looks good for Eastern New England.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:42 am

Do u guys thank it's possible the models are not reading it right and it will come far enough west to give us a good storm? Remember last week. We didn't even really know until it was happening.
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Post by Analog96 Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:49 am

[quote="jmanley32"]Do u guys thank it's possible the models are not reading it right and it will come far enough west to give us a good storm? Remember last week. We didn't even really know until it was happening.[/quote

I'll put it this way.

I wouldn't forecast that right now, but I would still not throw that option off the table.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:56 am

Another sit back and watch day. All the players are on the field to organize a coastal storm, but latest guidance has the pieces not aligning correctly to make it happen. We'll see what today brings. Can't have that northern stream vort dig so much.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Oct 29, 2014 9:32 am

Still only on mobile, get back home on my computer tonight. From what Im seeing the axis is too far east and its phasing too late kicking it OTS, not really liking how it looks. It will likely bring us our coldest temps of the season to start but thats all Im seeing now. Still time for a trend but Im not seeing it. Not to say thats bad, remember what happened last time it snowed in October... It really messed them up in the higher elevations where they got a foot plus.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:53 am

Frank is there something that is possibly stopping the models from showing a different senario where it's moves much closer? I know we said it's poor sampling of the northern part so do u think we may see a big change in how south it digs?
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Post by Analog96 Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:01 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Another sit back and watch day. All the players are on the field to organize a coastal storm, but latest guidance has the pieces not aligning correctly to make it happen. We'll see what today brings. Can't have that northern stream vort dig so much.
Yeah, of course.

And the pieces don't HAVE to align correctly.

Sometimes they don't.

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Post by Sunflowers138 Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:16 am

When is the next model run?

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Post by rb924119 Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:32 am

GFS Op is running right now. Out to hour 24 so far.......

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Post by rb924119 Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:35 am

Through hour 36 northern energy is less amp'd than 00z operational....no other real differences

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Post by rb924119 Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:39 am

Hour 48 H5 closes off over Lake Michigan.....definitely a change from earlier runs.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:44 am

Opened back up but closed off again over Ohio/Indiana.......further north than before.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:47 am

Is that good
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Post by rb924119 Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:49 am

1000 mb closed center over eastern NC versus 1004 mb elongated low over Atlantic at 00z

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:51 am

The actic vort is still too far south for our area. The ridge is even beginning to roll over a bit, which is not good for east coast storms. RIght now, bank on cold weather Saturday and Sunday with wind chills around freezing. That is a bigger story right now than any type of precip, whether it be rain or snow.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:53 am

The issue I am seeing is the southern stream energy develops its own storm off the coast and the arctic vort basically follows its lead

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:54 am

Looking at thise closer, this is another step in the right direction compared to 00z. Low is better organized and closer to coast

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Post by rb924119 Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:56 am

It was looking better, but the closed low ended up in the same spot as before and resulted in the same result: OTS. It did make more sense to me, though, that the main surface low developed where it did, and didn't remain an unorganized elongated low.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:01 pm

@rb924119 wrote:It was looking better, but the closed low ended up in the same spot as before and resulted in the same result: OTS. It did make more sense to me, though, that the main surface low developed where it did, and didn't remain an unorganized elongated low.

Not sure why our key H5 anomalies are digging so far south

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