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Official Long Range Thread 4.0

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Post by algae888 Sat Dec 13, 2014 7:13 am

6z gfs now looks like euro and cmc...

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 41 Gfs_namer_192_10m_wnd_precip
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Dec 13, 2014 7:36 am

@algae888 wrote:6z gfs now looks like euro and cmc...

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 41 Gfs_namer_192_10m_wnd_precip
I just took a look at the 6z GFS run myself. It showed 3 potential coastals, including a doozy on xmas eve. Track and precip type not important right now… very stormy run indeed. Probably a precursor of the impending pattern change. Catch up on your sleep now everyone, good times ahead! bounce
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Dec 13, 2014 8:14 am

@algae888 wrote:6z gfs now looks like euro and cmc...

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 41 Gfs_namer_192_10m_wnd_precip

Nice look here and lots of time to get even better, or not at all. This active pattern is great it seems like every 7-10 days there's something decent to track.
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Post by amugs Sat Dec 13, 2014 8:35 am

Watched my man Lee last night on late night news and he said" the pattern looks to be changing by late week and we could have our next significant storm next weekend!! I have been watching him since he has been in my along with Bill and I have only heard either one say this   A handful of times Blizzard of 96, 2003, 09-10 storms 2013  Nemo. Hey let's not worry about how much but that as Nutley and Al have pointed out we have storms to track and climo is starting to work with us not against us unlike Nov.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Dec 13, 2014 11:39 am

Its all great news to hear the pattern looks to be changing next week also looks like all signals to be where we want and also maybe a -nao into january
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 13, 2014 1:02 pm

Blog tomorrow

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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 13, 2014 1:47 pm

Euro is coming in about as money as ALL of us could hope for. Im only out to hr 192 but I am drooling. Long way to go but humina humina humina

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by amugs Sat Dec 13, 2014 1:48 pm

Out to 204 Scott and holy fn sht it is a MECS!!

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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 13, 2014 1:48 pm

at work so cant elaborate. sorry

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by amugs Sat Dec 13, 2014 1:51 pm

Looking at from 186 to 216 snow approx
Miller a baby! 
Takes the exact same track inside the bm but a good 50/50 low to help lock in some cold air and slow it up just enough!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 13, 2014 1:56 pm

Shocked Shocked Shocked

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 41 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f204

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 13, 2014 2:02 pm

I hate this fn iPad can't do maps apple sucks!!
The storm the pulls up towards Nokia scotia and pulls down some cold air the 32* line is all the Amy's to the coast of sc and into middle la

Talk about a change.

Auto spell check bite me!!

Snow from 190 to 212estimation

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 13, 2014 2:04 pm

Thanks paisan!! For posting looks good!

Dec 17 storm sets us up as it looks to become the 50/50 low right? Or am I reading it wrong?

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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Dec 13, 2014 2:05 pm

@amugs wrote:I hate this fn iPad can't do maps apple sucks!!
The storm the pulls up towards Nokia scotia and pulls down some cold air the 32* line is all the Amy's to the coast of sc and into middle la

Talk about a change.

Auto spell check bite me!!

Snow from 190 to 212estimation

Just bought a Surface 2...so maybe finally I'll be able to post some images too! Just get me the cold air and the rest will get here. We have been in such a wet pattern, bound to be white soon!

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Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
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Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 13, 2014 2:13 pm

@amugs wrote:Out to 204 Scott and holy fn sht it is a MECS!!

I wish it wasnt 8 days away. I want to freeze this run and re run it again at 00z on the 20th

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 13, 2014 2:53 pm

Been working hard on my finals and just had a nice break and saw the euro for 8/9 day : ) The snow map is purty (hoping the heaviest shifts more into my area though (tons of time for changes), but won't bother in posting it unless someone really cares to see a snow map that is 8+ days away. And mugs what the heck are u typing lol, better try turn that auto correct off, pasians, amy lol.
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Post by Math23x7 Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:19 pm

DT said in a video today that the position of the 12/17 low eastern New England will determine whether or not we have a 50/50 low for the 12/21 event.

Also, I notice that this thread has over 1000 posts. Time for a 5.0 Long Range Thread?

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:52 pm

Dang 1000 posts and its not even halfway through Dec lol.  And to think the 21st even is really only 10-15 Euro (start the count down, its fairly consistent), runs away from a time frame where we will know a lot more. Nor is it even possibly our biggest storm with two more on its heels possibly giggity! Screw the models not showing squat, all hail Euro : ) Sroc, humina lol, sounds like ur talking about a hot babe
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Post by amugs Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:55 pm

Back on my laptop - and I hear you and Mike on the 50/50 low - Scott wish it was 00Z runs and snowstorm tomorrow - the next few days if this has the same solution will be interesting but it is in LR land so we patiently await.

Zoo so true the power keg is ready top be tapped IMO and I am sitting here drinking my homemade baileys and eating home made canolli filing (secret ingredient - amaretto yeah baby!!) by the chip full.


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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 13, 2014 4:00 pm

What is it with accuwx long range and ice storms, do they just like to try and freak people out showing multiple days over their crazy 45 day forecast with 0.25+ ice threats with 40-50mph winds? As I recall when I really started watching winter more last year none of those ever verified even inland, maybe one but not major.
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Post by amugs Sat Dec 13, 2014 4:01 pm

This maybe just enough for us and teh 505/50 low set up will helkp bring or is a step to the - NAO.

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 41 20h9bg4

Christmas - oh bring it

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 41 Atxd3n


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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 13, 2014 4:02 pm

mugs I expect some homemade canolis at the get together, my all time fav italian dessert! Some are really badly done but I am sure yours are great, I don;t need the alcohol though lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 13, 2014 4:03 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:DT said in a video today that the position of the 12/17 low eastern New England will determine whether or not we have a 50/50 low for the 12/21 event.

Also, I notice that this thread has over 1000 posts. Time for a 5.0 Long Range Thread?

I'll start it tomorrow with my blog

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 13, 2014 6:30 pm

CONUS goes into the ice box right after xmas on global models - cmc, gfs and euro!!


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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 13, 2014 6:42 pm

mugs still think the 21/22nd a good shot at snow and the xmas, or are u now thinking more after like u just stated. Or are you just saying thats when prolonged cold will kick in? GFS has both storms warm (but its your evil 18z lol)
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