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Official Long Range Thread 4.0

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Post by Math23x7 Wed Nov 05, 2014 10:03 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:That is impressive Mike. But notice how broad the trough is and how quick paced the jet is on the east coast. Not what you want to see for coastal storm development.

Indeed. Let's just hope this isn't a recurring situation during the winter months.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Nov 05, 2014 10:04 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:That is impressive Mike. But notice how broad the trough is and how quick paced the jet is on the east coast. Not what you want to see for coastal storm development.

Indeed.  Let's just hope this isn't a recurring situation during the winter months.

Hopefully not. Need to get the Polar Vortex to split and get some blocking going. We'll find out soon enough

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Nov 06, 2014 1:48 am

The 0Z EURO shows light snow for the NYC region the morning of November 12th from a cold front. Interestingly enough, we had our first flakes last year the morning of November 12th from a cold front. Still 6 days away, but even if it verifies, it shouldn't be that big of a deal here other than our first flakes.

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Post by algae888 Thu Nov 06, 2014 9:05 am

well after today's storm passes we need to watch the models for a chance for some wintry precip next week. one with the arctic front and then around the 15th. nws disco...
DIFFERENCES THEN ARISE IN THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME...WHERE MODELS
HANDLE THE POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SE ACROSS CANADA DIFFERENTLY. THE
00Z GFS STAYS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z WED...WHILE THE GGEM
DROPS IT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE ECMWF SHEARS THE UPPER
SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS SENDING A
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT...WITH THE GGEM
LAGGING BEHIND...AND THE ECMWF TAKING A FRONTAL WAVE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TO SOUTH AND EAST OF LI. THE LATTER OF WHICH RAISES
SOME INTEREST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER
. FOR THE
TIME...RATHER THAN MAKE A BIG BREAK IN CONTINUITY...HAVE STAYED IN
LINE WITH THE GFS. TRENDS IN SUBSEQUENT CYCLES WILL BE WATCHED
CLOSELY.

and from steve d.....
Okay, well in the next 10 days you’ll likely want to hide under the covers when you feel what is on the way, which of course is the Arctic blast and cold weather pattern that everyone is now picking up on.  The thing is with this first of what will be many arctic invasions is that this one will likely have the most impressive departures but will not be the coldest we will see, naturally.  However, while the transport of cold air is interesting, what I will be watching is to see how the model handle the first potential interaction of cold, arctic air with the Sub Tropical jet stream.  I am keeping an eye for November 15th to the 17th as this may be the first threat for snow, sleet, and rain for the region.

right now the gfs and euro are hinting at a storm off the coast at this time. I posted the maps for gfs and cmc yesterday. will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.



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Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 06, 2014 9:19 am

Hmm Al, more pros are catching onto something possible, we wait and wait lol.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 06, 2014 9:35 am

Not that it is accurate at all but heres some pretty colors to look at and see what happens over the next 10 days, this happens between hrs 168 and 240 in two different events. Per Euro, probable to change every singe run.

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 6 Snow_e10
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 06, 2014 9:43 am

Euro snow ensembles and control run through day 10 show some possibly serious snow totals (likely too high but still something to watch for the white gold as mugs calls it. Still going to be a somewhat of a tree concern here as many of our trees are still fully leaved even after the windstorm and a week from now not a lot will change. They are starting to come off but not all of them and some trees are even still green (and I do not mean furs haha)
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Post by sroc4 Thu Nov 06, 2014 9:48 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Not that it is accurate at all but heres some pretty colors to look at and see what happens over the next 10 days, this happens between hrs 168 and 240 in two different events.  Per Euro, probable to change every singe run.

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 6 Snow_e10

Ahh yes the snow clown maps in the long range...how I missed thee.  What you see here verbatim will not happen, but the pattern is going to be ripe for something like this to happen before this month is out.  And IMO sooner rather than later.  My original thoughts of a mid month MECS is still there for sure, but my 11th-15th may be more like 13th-17th with the Euro and CMC hinting at some wintery precip at sometime next week. Once again the system currently affecting us still needs to move up and out. As it does so it will bomb out and have some eefcets on the down stream pattern combined with the currently recurving and massively bombing out remnants of Nuri in the N Pac. Still alot that needs to set up and pan out before we know the details that we see modeled in the medium and long range. Like my pops always said to me on the boat..."patience is a virtue Scott.  You must have patience."

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WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by Math23x7 Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:05 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Not that it is accurate at all but heres some pretty colors to look at and see what happens over the next 10 days, this happens between hrs 168 and 240 in two different events.  Per Euro, probable to change every singe run.

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 6 Snow_e10

Jman, are you familiar with the the EURO ensemble graphs for various locations across the US and Canada that include precipitation, snow, and temperatures:

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_city.php

Now, you will find the Central Park location under New York along with various other locations in the area.  I usually take a look at the snow graphs for Central Park and I notice from this run that a lot of the ensembles (If I'm not mistaken 20/51) indicate some snow.  However, keep in mind that like the snow map you posted, this chart assumes the snow is at 10:1 ratio which basically assumes that when frozen precip. falls, it is not only all snow, but it is between 28 and 32 degrees.  If it is warmer, unless the snow comes down rapidly, you're not going to get the snow shown.

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014110600/station/KNYC_2014110600_eps_snow_240.png

The best example of this comes from the October 2011 snowstorm.  in the 14 hours where NYC recorded snow, 1.71" of qpf fell which by the 10:1 ratio would equal 17.1" of snow.  However, it never went below 33 degrees and after a few hours, it tapered off to light snow so only 2.9" of snow was recorded.  

Now, in cases where it is much colder (~<25 degrees) and you have dry, fluffy snow, you get more snow than what the ECMWF model shows.  During the January 21-22, 2014 snowstorm, 0.48" of qpf fell which would equal 4.8" of snow by the 10:1 ratio but because temperatures during much of the storm were in the teens, snow ratios were over 20:1 during the bulk of it and Central Park ended up with 11.5" of snow from it.

With the exception of two runs, I have saved every ECMWF emsemble snow chart for Central Park, NY from 12Z 12/26/13 to 12Z 4/16/14.  Not sure if I am allowed to share  archived data with users but if I can, it would tell quite a story.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:12 am

Yeah ere you are safe math, I asked Frank if wxbell maps and such are ok to post here and he said its never been a problem. Yes I understand this, the control run of Euro is even more nuts showing 6-12 inches the jackpot being NW of cit and nothern NJ (damn you all lol). I know it is not going to transpire exactly like this but its still cool to see the snow is coming into the table. And yes the 50 stamp euro shows about 20 that give snow, some significant some light. Only timne will tell, as sroc said we need to see what this one bombing out does and how nuri's amazing epic bomb out is going to effect our cold. It very well could be cold enough for snow if that theng knocks the PV aql lthe way in. sroc I think your time frame around 16th is good as this is what this map shows for now.
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Post by amugs Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:14 am

@Math23x7 wrote:The 0Z EURO shows light snow for the NYC region the morning of November 12th from a cold front.  Interestingly enough, we had our first flakes last year the morning of November 12th from a cold front.  Still 6 days away, but even if it verifies, it shouldn't be that big of a deal here other than our first flakes.
Mike, 

I was thinking the same thing last night as I sat with the room spinning from my ear operation that Saturday night of my teachers convention weekend last year here in the great state of nj we were out to dinner and when we came out around 8 pm the cold winds were blowing and the flakes flying! That went on until feb13 th - the snow flakes that is. The cold lasted until early April. 

I see a similarly long duration winter ahead with all that I have read and pattern setting up!!alien


Last edited by amugs on Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:28 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:14 am

You really think we could get a storm over a foot in November? Or does a MECS not necessarily mean snow? I thought but not positive that when referring to the terns godzilla, mecs and hecs we are talking about snow (of course godzilla not being a technical term lol.
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Post by amugs Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:22 am

@jmanley32 wrote:You really think we could get a storm over a foot in November?  Or does a MECS not necessarily mean snow?  I thought but not positive that when referring to the terns godzilla, mecs and hecs we are talking about snow (of course godzilla not being a technical term lol.
Any snow we get now is a plus let's not worry about amounts this far out but anything is possible.

As I posted last night Nuri is going to be the Sandy of the Nepal and it will stall and set up shop over the Aleutians and will be the first atmospheric mechanism the will usher in the first arctic cold of tis season.

This low that scoots off the coast will hopefully set up the blocking for all this to come together.

Scott patience is a must, wait for it people. 

The great line from the movie Field of Dreams - build it and he shall come - well Mother Nature is in that process!

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:24 am

mugs ur ona some good stuff from your procedure huh, feelin a bit loopy lol, yes I know waiting and patience is a virtue. Gosh knows I have to have it for my job now why can't I just apply it to my wx obsession lol.
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Post by Math23x7 Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:25 am

@jmanley32 wrote:You really think we could get a storm over a foot in November?  Or does a MECS not necessarily mean snow?  I thought but not positive that when referring to the terns godzilla, mecs and hecs we are talking about snow (of course godzilla not being a technical term lol.

I came across videos from the Eastern US Weather conference from July 2009 and Dave Tolleris (DT) (whether you like him or not) did a talk about the East Coast Snowstorm checklist. The video is in several parts so I'll give you the first part. He talk about SECS, vMECS and HECS events and he also mentions the term "Polar Vortex" several years before the media got on it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ZjXls8BCRw

I attended a weather conference in Baltimore last July and DT did two talks, one about social media's influence on the 2013-14 winter, the other talk was comparing the performances of the EURO and GFS with Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy.

Yes, I know his shirt in the video contains a profanity, but whatever.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:27 am

Science lol, a profanity lol
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Post by amugs Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:27 am

@jmanley32 wrote:mugs ur ona some good stuff from your procedure huh, feelin  a bit loopy lol, yes I know waiting and patience is a virtue.  Gosh knows I have to have it for my job now why can't I just apply it to my wx obsession lol.
Vicaden is some good stuff - now if I can only go to the John life would be great!

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:40 am

Not even going to ask why u can't do that lol. Never had that but percocet and oxycodone from when I had surgery omg, stuff works but makes u feel horrible in other ways. Quick recovery : ) What did you have done? If you don't find it too personal.
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Post by amugs Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:44 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Not even going to ask why u can't do that lol.  Never had that but percocet and oxycodone from when I had surgery omg, stuff works but makes u feel horrible in other ways.  Quick recovery : ) What did you have done? If you don't find it too personal.
Genetic hearing loss needed to be corrected 60 % deaf in my left ear and it was a quality of life issue. Anesthesia and pain killers back u up even with the laxatives I was prescribed!! Houston we need contact! cat

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Post by amugs Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:46 am

Congrats ME


MEZ001>004-061615-
/O.UPG.KCAR.WS.A.0009.141107T0600Z-141108T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KCAR.WS.W.0013.141107T0600Z-141108T0000Z/
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLAGASH...CLAYTON LAKE...MADAWASKA...
FORT KENT...FRENCHVILLE...PRESQUE ISLE...CARIBOU...VAN BUREN...
MARS HILL...BAKER LAKE...BILLY-JACK DEPOT...BAXTER ST PARK...
CHAMBERLAIN LAKE...CHURCHILL DAM...MOUNT KATAHDIN
313 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES.

* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...DRIFTING SNOW AND
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...1/2 MILE OR LESS.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN MAINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:47 am

Oy, my wife is hard of hearing and deaf in one ear, its scary as years go by her good ear gets worse. We pray she keeps her hearing enough through life. She does wear a HA in that ear otherwise she pretty much cannot hear anything. Its very hard for her and I can only imagine what it must be like. Did not know there was surgery that could fox that other than a coclear imlant.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:48 am

I hope that is us in 2 weeks : ) Hey we can wish. Mugs drink a lot of water than will help.
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Post by devsman Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:49 am

I don't want a lot of snow now. I like when we get a 1-2 inch snow just to introduce us to the aesthetic beauty of the white landscape. Anything more than that in November turns into major traffic snarls, accidents, and trees falling on my roof. So that's what i hope we get in 10 days.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:52 am

heh dev, snow anytime of the year here causes treaffic issues and accidents. The tree felling I agree still lots of leaves and anything over a inche or two and they will be having problems especially if there is wind involved. We will see, and we will survivie whatever mother nature has to bring.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Nov 06, 2014 12:08 pm

GFS has a system to our west for 12th-13th time frame, and CMC H5 is coming in looking very interesting as well for the same time frame.  Going to have to watch this very closely over the next few days.  Pay no attention to the positioning of the surface LP for now.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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