Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0

[jmanley32]

heh dev, snow anytime of the year here causes treaffic issues and accidents. The tree felling I agree still lots of leaves and anything over a inche or two and they will be having problems especially if there is wind involved. We will see, and we will survivie whatever mother nature has to bring.

[sroc4]

GFS has a system to our west for 12th-13th time frame, and CMC H5 is coming in looking very interesting as well for the same time frame.  Going to have to watch this very closely over the next few days.  Pay no attention to the positioning of the surface LP for now.

[jmanley32]

things do look interesting on the 12z gfs and 12z cmc. cmc has lp off coast and gfs over the area from west. big despqrity there so yeah watching the LP center now doesnt hold much will change as did with the past few systems. the cmc a bit closer inland would be nice as it looks cold enough and has a few inches of snow.

[amugs]

WOW!!!

[Dunnzoo]

I need a snowstorm so I don't have to work the 15th! Hate working Saturdays!

[amugs]

Here you go Nuri!!

It will interesting to see if the the Nuri ET can break the record for lowest pressure in the Bering Sea.
We'll probably have to wait a few more days to get a handle on how strong it pumps the ridge
out west and the details of the following trough amplification in the east.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
413 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

TODAY...NURI IS LOCATED ABOUT 480 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA
JAPAN. THE CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC LATE
THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN BERING SEA. AS THIS
HAPPENS...THE LOW WILL UNDERGO A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
CURRENT FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM DROPS FROM AROUND 970 MB LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...TO
BETWEEN 918 TO 922 MB LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD CREATE A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS THE CURRENT RECORD LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED
IN THE BERING SEA IS 925 MB MEASURED AT DUTCH HARBOR ON OCTOBER 25
1977.

12z GFS has Nuri ET down to 924mb in the Bering Sea.

[amugs]

917MB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SICKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK!!!

[Dunnzoo]

Yowza, really going to be a rough crabbing season up there...they are out now getting King Crab, can't wait for the show to air next year!

[amugs]

Jesus, Mary and St Joseph this thing is ridiculous and the placement is going to perfect for our ridge in the west - giddee up!

[amugs]

Yowza, really going to be a rough crabbing season up there...they are out now getting King Crab, can't wait for the show to air next year!

The show is over with this Janet - new show to come - all boats not in sheltered areas go down in this - worse than the perfect storm - love to get the buoy wave data - swells 60', 80'??

[amugs]

If it can come together - Janet may get her wish and I can keep my Crown for another season!!

[algae888]

I can't post from my computer is anyone else having trouble using my cell phone now

[Frank_Wx]

**REVISED NOVEMBER OUTLOOK*

It has become clear to me over these last few days that the month of November is going to turn out significantly different than what I originally forecasted, which was a warm month of +1.5 to +2.5.



#1: This is the PDO region just off the west coast of the U.S. and it is forecasted by guidance to be under the influence of a ridge. Due to the Aleutian trough, helped out by Typhoon Nuri, this makes sense. The SST's in this region are also running above normal so there is likely a positive feedback effect taking place as well which leads me to believe this ridging may be a common theme as we approach the winter months.

#2: The western ridge is connected to a pinched off -EPO block into Alaska and the Arctic. What this will do is force the PV, which usually sits in the Arctic, to come south and bring colder than normal temp. anomalies into the CONUS.

#3: The combination of -EPO/+PNA/-AO is going to create ridging in the west with frequent trough intrusions in the east. That being said, the trough is not forecasted to be sharply oriented. It looks rather broad in nature and much of that is attributed to the arctic s/w's breaking off the Polar Vortex and penetrating the Rockies. The western ridge (PNA region) can not really amplify as much as it is capable of because of these forces.



Over the last month, look how much the SST's have warmed in the PDO region (off the west coast of U.S.) and in the eastern GOA (Gulf of Alaska). With a very strong Aleutian trough forecasted to take place, I can see these anomalies becoming even more impressive by mid to end of this month. Also notice the ENSO...warming slowly but surely.

New temp. forecast for November is -1 to +1

[nutleyblizzard]

Frank, with these new favorable developments, will this change your thinking with your winter forecast?

[amugs]

Crazy this far out IMO holy snikees!

[amugs]

Good call frank but I am hedging to the below normal temp trend for the NNJ area of -1 to possibly -2.  Reason being the EPO and western ridge are going to be beasts along with the AO  - that typhoon Nuri is going to wreck havoc on the atmosphere and I also read that at the 10 and 30 mb levels the SSW has commenced earlier than expected along with the snow growth. Only time will tell.

[amugs]

[jmanley32]

Wow, cold! Mugs what model of ensembles is that above this post? And is that showing a LP or something else its small for me to read it.

[amugs]

Wow, cold!  Mugs what model of ensembles is that above this post? And is that showing a LP or something else its small for me to read it.

GEFS members!!

Okay I am going out on a limb and I have read and studied about the bearing straight rule of meteorology that what happens in the Bearing Sea Rule ( BSR) by Joe Renken who has studied this  the eastern seaboard about 17 -21 days later.

Balls to the wall here!!

We see a SECS if not MECS around thanksgiving 23rd to 27th time frame due to the beast Nuri in this area and a significant cold outbreak as I posted with the 14 -21 temp chart. 

This board and every wether board goes into full throttle midweek.

[Frank_Wx]

Frank, with these new favorable developments, will this change your thinking with your winter forecast?

It did, slightly. Studying the Pacific these last couple of months has been key to my outlook. Especially the SSTs

Good call frank but I am hedging to the below normal temp trend for the NNJ area of -1 to possibly -2.  Reason being the EPO and western ridge are going to be beasts along with the AO  - that typhoon Nuri is going to wreck havoc on the atmosphere and I also read that at the 10 and 30 mb levels the SSW has commenced earlier than expected along with the snow growth. Only time will tell.

Mugs the stratosphere has a big lag effect, so we won't see that impact until December, if not later. The warming has to propagate through all the levels of the stratosphere. And while the Pacific blocking is impressive, the trough as I explained remains broad and the core of the coldest temp anomalies are to our west

[amugs]

Even better then frank so we can lock up some cold air for our ensuing storm come dec and jan!

[jmanley32]

Both gfs and euro show a system develop to the south around 14th and gfs has it south giving us a small dose of snow while euro is a 3 to 6 incher. Is this something to watch now that we have both showing this or are u still thinkingot no storm frank?

[Frank_Wx]

Starting to get my attention Jman

[amugs]

6Z GFS looks good - Patience and temper the emotions at this stage. The pattern is ripe - timing is a main key here IMO.

[amugs]

Oh boy here comes the media hype of the PV --watch Social media explode now.

http://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20141106/downtown/polar-vortex-headed-for-chicago-next-week-meteorologists-say

[rb924119]

Mugs I saw that ahahaha dear God save us all........

[Frank_Wx]

Oh boy here comes the media hype of the PV --watch Social media explode now.

http://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20141106/downtown/polar-vortex-headed-for-chicago-next-week-meteorologists-say

This makes me sad.

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