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Official Long Range Thread 4.0

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Post by sroc4 Sat Nov 01, 2014 5:28 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:A mecs snowstorm or mecs unsure of precip type? So when around 15 to 20th timeframe? I know it's just signals but wanted to know what timeframe ur seeing these signals. U go for the god scott!

Have no idea of Precip types or if a MECS even develops. But the signal for one is percolating. I like that word

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by mako460 Sat Nov 01, 2014 5:42 pm

PERCOLATING, i like it!

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Post by rb924119 Sat Nov 01, 2014 5:56 pm

I've been looking a little deeper at the progged pattern for next week and beyond, and we are going to be able to thank the typhoon currently off the coast of Japan. It's actually going to pump the central Pacific ridge up so much that the pattern over the Pacific wavebreaks and cuts that ridge off above Alaska. It eventually meanders over the North Pole and helps to reverse the height gradient (-AO). It also helps to create a stationary Gulf of Alaska trough which then induces a ridge over western North America (+PNA). The combination allows negative 500 hPa anomalies to flood the eastern half of the U.S. It is unclear at this time whether or not the expected Phase 1 MJO will help or hurt this pattern at this time, seeing as though tropical cyclone development could drastically alter our sensible weather. Just my two cents....

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 01, 2014 6:09 pm

Interesting on all the worldly effects that cause our weather. I will def be watching around the 10th, I just hope the 8th is clear, it is my daughters Jewish naming ceremony and people are coming in from Boston etc.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 01, 2014 6:29 pm

@rb924119 wrote:I've been looking a little deeper at the progged pattern for next week and beyond, and we are going to be able to thank the typhoon currently off the coast of Japan. It's actually going to pump the central Pacific ridge up so much that the pattern over the Pacific wavebreaks and cuts that ridge off above Alaska. It eventually meanders over the North Pole and helps to reverse the height gradient (-AO). It also helps to create a stationary Gulf of Alaska trough which then induces a ridge over western North America (+PNA). The combination allows negative 500 hPa anomalies to flood the eastern half of the U.S. It is unclear at this time whether or not the expected Phase 1 MJO will help or hurt this pattern at this time, seeing as though tropical cyclone development could drastically alter our sensible weather. Just my two cents....

Awesome analysis and I agree. One thing I would like to see happening this season is some high latitude blocking at the NAO region. That would really help jump start the winter season.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 01, 2014 6:32 pm

soulsing where have you seen this social media talk? Man 192hrs plus out, and media already, some on! Lets not be getting these KOD this year.
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Post by rb924119 Sat Nov 01, 2014 7:08 pm

Frank if we get that that would be an awesome setup.....time will tell whether or not that sets up though. Patience is a virtue lmao

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 01, 2014 7:46 pm

Euro certain likes idea of two big storms in the 10 day, def going to be interesting to watch how this unfolds. Euro more amped than GFS which def says something.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Nov 01, 2014 8:18 pm

I would just like to point out the SST in the pacific.  The warm pool is getting warmer again in the GOA area.  GREAT news for our -EPO +PNA signals for winter.  First image is the actual SST temp anomalies.  The second image is the last 7day change.  Clearly a warming trend is occurring again.  If you remember the first half of Oct we actually were having cooling occurring in the NE Pac and the warm pool in the GOA was shrinking.  If you recall we had super typhoon after super typhoon re-curve from late summer into early Oct. and enhance a trough into the GOA which caused upwelling of the cooler deeper water.  Frank pointed out we needed to see what happens up there once the typhoon season subsided.  Well guess what? No more typhoons and the warming trend is back, at least for the past 7 days) to enhance our Pac teleconnections.  
Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 2 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1
[img]Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 2 Global17[/img]

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Sat Nov 01, 2014 11:09 pm

It's coming folks and the mode ls are going t brought the transfer of the change. Cmc also shows a storm in the 7-8 day time fame and h5 maps.

We will be doing A LOT of tracking these next few months IMHO.

Balls to the wall!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:06 am

May have to change my November Outlook. A lot of changes these last two days. Signals beginning to kiss each other. 

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 2 Post-40-0-75034700-1414940547

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Post by amugs Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:30 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:May have to change my November Outlook. A lot of changes these last two days. Signals beginning to kiss each other. 

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 2 Post-40-0-75034700-1414940547

The times are a changing in more ways than one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

As I said in the other thread and posts - I like the long range and IT"S COMING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Post by sroc4 Sun Nov 02, 2014 11:13 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:May have to change my November Outlook. A lot of changes these last two days. Signals beginning to kiss each other. 

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 2 Post-40-0-75034700-1414940547

Looking more like an all out orgy..lol

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 02, 2014 11:16 am

So guys what does this mean for us lots of storms and snow?
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Post by sroc4 Sun Nov 02, 2014 11:20 am

Lots of storm potential Jman. The deeper into the season we get the higher the snow chances will get. Its all potential my man.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Nov 02, 2014 12:04 pm

Just goes to show how fast the weather can change.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 02, 2014 1:44 pm

Sure does, ok NEXT whats next on the out look? LOL, looks like a lot of rain for Thursday.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 02, 2014 5:39 pm

18z GFS has another very windy day next Sat and rain w/ strong winds on Thursday, looking at winds possibly stronger than todays and Ryan Maue made mention of it today on twitter. Going to be a wild next 4 month IMO.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:39 pm

Holy crap! Amnd this is the Euro 8 days out, not a good thing since Euro can often underestimate storms (well maybe not so this year but this is a scary looking storm, wids would be much higher than today and lots precip.

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 2 Euro_m10
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:42 pm

Jeeze, hurricane force over LI CT and MA, gives us 50-60mph gusts (well some of you live closer to that eastenr part of LI). Long ways off but this comes west yikes on the wind, drops 3-4 inches or rain too. Will def have to watch this one, interesting it seems to come from down around FL.

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 2 Boston10
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Post by Sunflowers138 Sun Nov 02, 2014 9:02 pm

That EURI map you posted is for next weekend? Or Thursday?

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 02, 2014 9:05 pm

That is around the 10th or 11th, should not be taken to seriously yet however sroc did elude to a big storm around the middle of the month.  We will see where models trend through this week.
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Post by Sunflowers138 Sun Nov 02, 2014 9:14 pm

I'll be following along!

Thanks for the reply!

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Post by amugs Sun Nov 02, 2014 9:20 pm

Here is my take on the new but most exciting pattern change. It is becoming pretty obvious that initial warm forecasts made for November are definitely going to be wrong. Yes, the month will start out about to slightly above average, but the Aleutian Low is going to retrograde to the west quicker than initially thought. This as well as other factors may try to lead to some high-latitude blocking as well. Euo showing low swinging off the ne coast and then stalling over Greenland giving us a block.

Instead of a warm November 1-15 and average to maybe slightly below November 16-30 like originally thought, it may be something like a slightly above to  average November 1-7, but pretty cold for much of the month after that. 



I think we see our fair share of coastal s and a good shot at snow in this pattern from mid month to the end accumulating maybe but a bk end squall is more likely - I think we start to see the stj come into play as well. Just one man's thoughts on this exciting pattern change.
  

I the using his iPad auto or react posting maps etc do not like it. Beggars can't be choosers right?

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 02, 2014 9:23 pm

mugs that sub 980 LP on Euro is no joke, if that were to happen that would def me a MECS if not more. Interested to see if its continued on future models or if its that pattern change thats making models have a hard time.
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