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Official Long Range Thread 4.0

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 04, 2014 11:58 am

Still too far. We have an event this coming Thursday to get by first

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 04, 2014 12:28 pm

Thursday does not look much of a event to me but we will see, Al made a point that the models backed off big time on rain totals, but yes as I understand it this system will have a impact onif and when our next threat is?
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Post by rb924119 Tue Nov 04, 2014 12:47 pm

J-man,

You ALWAYS have to be wary with operational models. If you look at the ensembles, you will get a much better sense of how "likely" a scenario is (now I put it in quotes because things can/do change, but ensembles allow you to really see the probability of a forecast given the rough initial conditions). In this case, The OP is certainly in a minority cluster at H5, with a significantly more amplified solution than most of the 21 member suite. That's not saying that it can't/won't verify that way, but as of now, that solution is looking less likely than an OTS. Take that, and this, with caution, because there are too many details that cannot be ironed out until a couple of days before the event, but generally, there is safety in numbers.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 04, 2014 12:50 pm

Right have not looked at the ensemble members, no time right now but I will when I get a chance but maybe after Thursday.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 04, 2014 1:50 pm

With Nuri expected to become a Super Typhoon and sit and spin over the Aleutian Islands, that is going to pump up the ridging in the western U.S. into the EPO regions. Look for much below normal temps. to invade the northeast around Nov. 11th

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Post by sroc4 Tue Nov 04, 2014 2:09 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:With Nuri expected to become a Super Typhoon and sit and spin over the Aleutian Islands, that is going to pump up the ridging in the western U.S. into the EPO regions. Look for much below normal temps. to invade the northeast around Nov. 11th

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 4 B1nlfA2CUAAwJ4y

I was just going to post about this.  This will probably affect our weather pattern in the east into at least early December.  I still think a bigger storm is going to develop somewhere along the east coast between the 11th and the 15th. That is unless the polar vortex suppresses things too far south. Will have to hope for some - NAO help

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Post by rb924119 Tue Nov 04, 2014 2:55 pm

Idk if any of you guys saw it, but the EURO OP (FWIW) is trying to get an earlier Miller B going for Thursday (compared to previous runs) with maybe some sneaky backend snows as the coastal rapidly takes over. Certainly a change....have to see what the ensembles do with it and how things go the next couple of days.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Nov 04, 2014 3:00 pm

Ensembles aren't convinced, but there is a heck of a lot of uncertainty once it starts heading towards New England lol H5 looks like a bunch of spaghetti lmao

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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Nov 04, 2014 3:07 pm

Looking at some futurecasts, it looks like West Virgina gets a lot of snow from Thursdays event...south again!

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 04, 2014 3:14 pm

rb it amazes me how much uncertainty there has been with tese systems just 2 days out (for instance Thursdays rain event), I assume u mean this week because u posted in long range so I wasn't positive u meant this coming Thursday or next. Going to be a nail biter of a season, and I think I am going to just have to learn to be patient. I didn't notice much change with the Euro but I will look again, I am not ask skilled at reading this stuff as u guys are though so I wil ltake your word for it. Flakes would def be cool.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Nov 04, 2014 3:22 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Idk if any of you guys saw it, but the EURO OP (FWIW) is trying to get an earlier Miller B going for Thursday (compared to previous runs) with maybe some sneaky backend snows as the coastal rapidly takes over. Certainly a change....have to see what the ensembles do with it and how things go the next couple of days.

Im not sure I buy much back end snow with the NAO still progged to be slight positive. Both GFS and Euro have it go neg well after this system moves out. Even though its bombing out Im not sure there will be enough time before it moves out. Plus the warm tropical moisture feed out ahead is going to have the entire column warm until it bombs out. The 850's don't appear to crash until no earlier than mid to late day Friday. By then the LP center and the heaviest moisture axis is long gone. Even then the surface temps are still too warm. At least for the coverage for most on this forum.

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Post by algae888 Tue Nov 04, 2014 5:17 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Idk if any of you guys saw it, but the EURO OP (FWIW) is trying to get an earlier Miller B going for Thursday (compared to previous runs) with maybe some sneaky backend snows as the coastal rapidly takes over. Certainly a change....have to see what the ensembles do with it and how things go the next couple of days.

rb nws has picked up on this also. I think anytime a storm bombs out near us there is always a chance for some snow. nws disco...

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

TWO POTENTIAL STORMS IN THE LONG TERM.

THE FIRST IS THU INTO FRI. THE TREND APPEARS TO BE E WITH THE MODEL
SOLNS. THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED. THIS BRINGS A TRACK OVER OR JUST E OF THE CWA. A TRACK
OVER THE CWA COULD DRY SLOT THE AREA...KEEPING PCPN TOTALS TO A
HALF INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER...ANY JOG TO THE W OR MORE LIKELY TO THE
E BRINGS THE POTENTIAL TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. FOR THE MOST PART PCPN
ENDS FRI MRNG...HOWEVER THE ECMWF WHICH IS ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE DOES PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE WRAPAROUND PCPN. IF THIS
VERIFIES...THERE COULD BE SOME FLAKES AT LEAST MIXED IN...ESPECIALLY
INTERIOR...AS THE COLD AIR IS DRAWN SWD. THIS IS STILL AN OUTLYING
SOLN...BUT BEARS WATCHING DUE TO THE TREND.
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Post by aiannone Tue Nov 04, 2014 10:54 pm

NWS Burlington, is suggesting that parts of northern NY and the higher elevations of NVT could get several inches from the late week event. They even said valley locations in NVT could receive up to an inch.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 04, 2014 11:45 pm

The PV, Polar Vortex, is going to phase with a piece of Pacific energy early next week and develop one heck of a upper level low. In fact, it is probably just a stronger PV. Once this occurs, much colder than normal temp. departures will invade the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. However, I think these temp. anomalies will moderate by the time they reach our coast due to the positive heights extending into New England off the Atlantic. We'll get cold, just not as cold as the folks in the center of the country

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 4 Gfs_z500_sig_noram_28

I'm also not expecting any storms next week...at this time.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Nov 05, 2014 12:15 pm

The Teleconnection combo of the -NAO/-AO/-EPO/+PNA clearly establishing itself as we speak is ripe for a system  IMHO. That and a robust, evolving before our very eyes, STJ.  It is entirely possible that s/w energy that has yet to make it into better sampled regions either via the polar jet and/or the STJ could absolutely not be well modeled at this point and it show up and surprise us with a potential systemeven though there is nothing oncurrently on the models.  I still believe in a Miller A type system between 11th-15th but am certainly not blind to the fact that the intensity of this arctic blast could suppress anything along the coast. Time will tell. The lake affect machines should def get crack-A-lacking.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Nov 05, 2014 12:29 pm

So you still guessing ona MECS sroc? The models do showa system but well ofshore and strung out, is that the system you are talking about? I think its only a matter of time we get a combined rain/snow or snow and wind event at the same time. Recently its been rain then next day sunny with the high winds, always love the windy sunny days because I love to be out i nthe wind but not so much when its raining, snow I do not mind : )
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Post by rb924119 Wed Nov 05, 2014 12:37 pm

Yeah Sroc, I'm with you. The problem is that there is SO much going on in the atmosphere that I think looking beyond Thursday's even is just insanity; there is absolutely no way the models know what is going to happen this time next week (as much as it kills me to say). We're just going to have to play the waiting game for now, and keep our fingers crossed. I know there was a signal for a coastal event around the 12th a few days ago, but that has since been changed to a GLC (which is interesting in itself). I wouldn't be surprised to see huge changes like that continue for the forecasts for next week.

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Post by algae888 Wed Nov 05, 2014 12:39 pm

@sroc4 wrote:The Teleconnection combo of the -NAO/-AO/-EPO/+PNA clearly establishing itself as we speak is ripe for a system  IMHO. That and a robust, evolving before our very eyes, STJ.  It is entirely possible that s/w energy that has yet to make it into better sampled regions either via the polar jet and/or the STJ could absolutely not be well modeled at this point and it show up and surprise us with a potential systemeven though there is nothing oncurrently on the models.  I still believe in a Miller A type system between 11th-15th but am certainly not blind to the fact that the intensity of this arctic blast could suppress anything along the coast. Time will tell. The lake affect machines should def get crack-A-lacking.

scott I feel the same way. pattern looks to good. plenty of cold air and stj is very active. we will have numerous s/w energy and troughs from the northern jet one of them is bound to hook up with the stj form a low near texas an move it off the jersey coast. I think we will see our first acc. snow before the end of the month. I am glad that models do not show anything at this point. I only wish this pattern would have started around the 25th.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Nov 05, 2014 12:49 pm

For next week there is a potent piece of s/w energy in the southern US, however, there is no northern piece s/w diving down to phase in with it. The timing of the trough coming in is what will likely kill any chances of a possible storm next week. Timing is key to everything. Do not think we get so lucky, but we'll see.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Nov 05, 2014 12:52 pm

Ahh rb and Al, don't you love the waiting game, but yeah its somewhat intriguing that the models DON'T show a coastal hit for next week at this time. Rb its funny you say its insane to look past...tomorrow lol.I am not as wise as you guys on all this setup stuff but I remeber when we could look at things at least 5-7 days out. Now its seeming like this year everything is crunch time. Like tomorrow last night looked like almost no rain now trending back to upwards and even on NAM slightly over a inch of rain for some. As long as Sat is noce which it looks to be (but cold) its all good, its my daughters Jewish naming ceremoney and I would rather not have to go out in dismal conditions. SO as hard as it is for me I will watch the models but with a grain of salt until late weekend into next week.
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Post by algae888 Wed Nov 05, 2014 12:54 pm

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 4 <a href=Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 4 B1rewk10" />

euro goes nuts with the pna
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Nov 05, 2014 12:56 pm

yay al ! You posted a image...now what that mean lol.
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Post by algae888 Wed Nov 05, 2014 12:56 pm

[img]Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 4 B1r-9r10[/img]

and the ao WOW!!!
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Post by algae888 Wed Nov 05, 2014 12:57 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:yay al ! You posted a image...now what that mean lol.

jman finally!!! thanks for the help. what it means is that we will be cold and a trough will be over the east coast. now we just need the right timing of the s/w energy.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Nov 05, 2014 1:04 pm

@algae888 wrote:Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 4 <a href=Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 4 B1rewk10" />

euro goes nuts with the pna
I'm dreaming of a white Thanksgiving!
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