Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0

by **amugs** Thu Dec 11, 2014 1:34 pm

Middle of the week could be interesting with the system coming out of the lakes interacting with the polar jet. The 12z PGFS even develops a late developing miller B.
Just in time for back to back snow years on................................MY 45TH BDAY!!!!!
The 17th - last year had a 3" snowfall - could not have asked for a better present - well besides my family taking me to dinner!!

by **jmanley32** Thu Dec 11, 2014 2:23 pm

mugs regular GFS does not have much the 17th, I wonder which is right.

by **algae888** Thu Dec 11, 2014 2:40 pm

I don't have what the surface looks like but this looks very interesting.

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 39 F240

50/50 lp, hp perfect, closed low over west Virginia and transfer to a coastal and cold. gfs and cmc have low exit off the se coast. still 10 days out but consistent on every model for days now. what are ensemble and means showing?

by **algae888** Thu Dec 11, 2014 2:48 pm

steve d on pre xmas storm....
"The key to a White Christmas is the storm on 12/17. I'll explain to Premium Members tomorrow morning.
New 12Z ECMWF is a lot colder for 12-21 period. Large cold high north of developing coastal low.
Text book set up for 12/21-24 for all of the region."

by **amugs** Thu Dec 11, 2014 3:21 pm

jmanley32 wrote:mugs regular GFS does not have much the 17th, I wonder which is right.

That is a good question - bowling ball vort rolling from SW area to the middle of the country and then trying to form a miller b as it cuts and dies over the western PA area and then goes up and into the NAO region to form a nice 50/50 block. Hey i will take a 2-3" event for a possible beast that week xmas that is - GFS has a storm on the 21st then another one xmas

Euro is interested as well

For some reason I can not post storm vista maps - what the h is going on?

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 11, 2014 3:44 pm

Watching Dec. 21st-23rd storm closely...

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 39 B4miJfHIQAAVDTq

by **HectorO** Thu Dec 11, 2014 3:49 pm

Haha, thanks everyone!

by **docstox12** Thu Dec 11, 2014 3:52 pm

I include my best wishes for a belated Happy Birthday to a Mahwah resident which I was for longer than you have been around! Wish I could be 30 again, great age.

by **sroc4** Thu Dec 11, 2014 4:34 pm

algae888 wrote:steve d on pre xmas storm....
"The key to a White Christmas is the storm on 12/17. I'll explain to Premium Members tomorrow morning.
New 12Z ECMWF is a lot colder for 12-21 period. Large cold high north of developing coastal low.
Text book set up for 12/21-24 for all of the region."

17th system to try and set up a 50/50 Low. I mentioned this in my write up a day or two ago. At least I think thats what he is going to talk about.

by **jmanley32** Thu Dec 11, 2014 6:02 pm

So let me get this straight, we have a potential smaller storm on the 17th ( not seeing too much on models but I know it's a lot more than that ), bigger storm 21-22 and possibly doozey on 23-25th? Oyvey, thats a lot of tracking to do!

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 11, 2014 6:58 pm

Stratospheric warming looks impressive over the next 2 weeks or so. January likely to roar in like a lion...

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 39 Ecmwf70f216

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 39 Ecmwf70f216

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Dec 11, 2014 7:39 pm

One odd coincidence so far this winter.

NYC received their first trace of snow last winter on November 11 this year only two days off on November 13.

The first one inch snowfall last year was December 10th in CPK this year December 10th again.

The first significant snowfall in CPK last year was December 14th with 5.0 inches, unfortunately I don't see anything right now that will happen within a few days of the 14th, but I can hope.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Dec 11, 2014 7:46 pm

amugs wrote:Middle of the week could be interesting with the system coming out of the lakes interacting with the polar jet. The 12z PGFS even develops a late developing miller B.
Just in time for back to back snow years on................................MY 45TH BDAY!!!!!
The 17th - last year had a 3" snowfall - could not have asked for a better present - well besides my family taking me to dinner!!

Yeah Mugs plus you had a nice lead in to your birthday last year. We had 8 inches of snow on the 14th and NYC had 5 inches on the 14th so I'm guessing it was white where you are going into your birthday, not bad. Great people seem to be born in December and of course Royalty.

by **Math23x7** Fri Dec 12, 2014 2:11 am

hr 240 of the 0Z EURO showed a low coming up the coast. The previous 12Z run (as DT pointed out on his facebook page) had the 50/50 low (near Newfoundland). Now, its over Nova Scotia. But it does indicate the active storm signal for later this month.

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:27 am

The fact that Frank says he is watching the 24/25th storm possibility 13 days ahead of time tells me something : ) Check out the 06z GFS, wow, bombs out from 990-975 but a bit too far north but we still see decent snow. If it does so an but further south this could be a Christmas to remember. Nice to see it moving up in time too, rather than changing dates.

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 39 06z_gf11

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 39 06z_gf11

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:28 am

Boom!

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 39 06z_gf12

by **Quietace** Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:36 am

jmanley32 wrote:Boom!

Yup, only 13.5 days out! Haha
Good signals on all the models though.

by **Quietace** Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:10 am

by **amugs** Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:14 am

Ace to add to it NCEP

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 39 Post-25-0-92559200-1418391271

by **Quietace** Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:15 am

Decent signals for both ensembles in the LR
Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 39 Gefs_m10

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:16 am

Lookin good on those maps too giggidy, lets just hope its cold enough, which it looks like it will be.

by **Quietace** Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:19 am

jmanley32 wrote:Lookin good on those maps too giggidy, lets just hope its cold enough, which it looks like it will be.

Its early, but we still are not tapping into a truly polar air source. Pre-Christmas event maybe another marginal event but its a long way off to speculate and its just my opinion.

by **amugs** Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:22 am

Lee hinted last night that after Thursday or thereabout the pattern will start to go more winter/cold so "enjoy these next few days from Sunday to Tues/Wed temps folks" and we'll see what happens after that.

For him to throw that in to me says something - anyone else catch that?

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:23 am

Oh I know that, but there has def been talk about this time frame, including here obviously. But such as Dimartino and JB for two.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 12, 2014 10:34 am

amugs wrote:Ace to add to it NCEP

Can we take a moment to acknowledge how beautiful of an image this is? -NAO, -EPO, -AO. Praise Mary Jospeh Jesus

by **sroc4** Fri Dec 12, 2014 10:54 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
amugs wrote:Ace to add to it NCEP

Can we take a moment to acknowledge how beautiful of an image this is? -NAO, -EPO, -AO. Praise Mary Jospeh Jesus

LOL...I thought the same thing. I am in between appts and I just made my employees look at it. They rolled their eyes at me.

by **Snow88** Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:01 am

DT is really confident on a pattern change just right near Christmas. He said the trend is his friend. He is calling for a -NAO in January.

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