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Official Long Range Thread 4.0

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Snow88
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:08 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@amugs wrote:Ace to add to it NCEP

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 40 Post-25-0-92559200-1418391271

Can we take a moment to acknowledge how beautiful of an image this is? -NAO, -EPO, -AO. Praise Mary Jospeh Jesus

LOL...I thought the same thing. I am in between appts and I just made my employees look at it.  They rolled their eyes at me.

Hahaha

@Snow88 wrote:DT is really confident on a pattern change just right near Christmas. He said the trend is his friend. He is calling for a -NAO in January.

Tony, my man, I've been saying this since Thanksgiving. It's also in my winter outlook. Hence, while everyone (not really this forum) was freaking out about the long range for the 1st half of December, I was just sitting back and enjoying the entertainment

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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:24 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@amugs wrote:Ace to add to it NCEP

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 40 Post-25-0-92559200-1418391271

Can we take a moment to acknowledge how beautiful of an image this is? -NAO, -EPO, -AO. Praise Mary Jospeh Jesus
…That's the reason why I was so aggressive in my snowfall prediction this upcoming season. I feel once the tellies line up, the pattern will be a virtual powder keg of potential.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:52 am

Nutley me too, I put mine higher than my total last year but maybe at this point not high enough, we shall see. It may be one snowstorm after another come Christmas week though march : ) We can hope anyways, break my back shoveling yeah but its so fun to watch and track. Bring it all in January lol, school starts up again February lol.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:54 am

Pattern change, does not necessarily mean snowstorm though right> Accuwx (inaccuwx, lol) has showers on x-mas for my area and pretty warm temps, of course their 5 day changes 20x a day.
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:59 am

I have a tap and the red cups SO WHO WANTS IN for this keg??? Frank I am going to form a new weather group for this pattern I shall call it..................................................

Phi Tappa Kegga
Lamda Wanna Snowa
Omega Frankzilla


That map is a map we have to actually behold, savior and archive for future references.

Doc I am sure the patients - dogs, cats, horses, sheep and chickens really appreciate your enthusiasm for this map - get the four wheel drive ready!!!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:14 pm

I am trying to fully understand this map, if anyone can take the time to draw on it what the -ao area is, the -nao area is and the -epo area is it would be greatly appreciated, I have the map printed to I can keep it because I really want to understand this stuff so I know what the heck u all are talking about. All I know is what they stand for and did some research but I still do not fully grasp it.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:38 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I am trying to fully understand this map, if anyone can take the time to draw on it what the -ao area is, the -nao area is and the -epo area is it would be greatly appreciated, I have the map printed to I can keep it because I really want to understand this stuff so I know what the heck u all are talking about.  All I know is what they stand for and did some research but I still do not fully grasp it.

Sorry Jman I dont have time to write on the image but here is a great website

http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:40 pm

Also this

http://northernhemisphere-teleconnections.blogspot.com/2011/04/importance-of-epo-wpo-pna-signals-in.html

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:52 pm

Ok sroc this works, great site.
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Dec 12, 2014 1:18 pm

@amugs wrote:I have a tap and the red cups SO WHO WANTS IN for this keg??? Frank I am going to form a new weather group for this pattern I shall call it..................................................

Phi Tappa Kegga
Lamda Wanna Snowa
Omega Frankzilla


That map is a map we have to actually behold, savior and archive for future references.

Doc I am sure the patients - dogs, cats, horses, sheep and chickens really appreciate your enthusiasm for this map - get the four wheel drive ready!!!

Let's get Doc and Hector and meet at your house.... drunken

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 12, 2014 1:46 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@amugs wrote:I have a tap and the red cups SO WHO WANTS IN for this keg??? Frank I am going to form a new weather group for this pattern I shall call it..................................................

Phi Tappa Kegga
Lamda Wanna Snowa
Omega Frankzilla


That map is a map we have to actually behold, savior and archive for future references.

Doc I am sure the patients - dogs, cats, horses, sheep and chickens really appreciate your enthusiasm for this map - get the four wheel drive ready!!!

Let's get Doc and Hector and meet at your house....           drunken

Can't leave out CP from the LHV - he is part of the court from Snow Weenie land! Razz

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Snow88 Fri Dec 12, 2014 3:36 pm

12z Euro Ensemble mean for the 20-21 storm

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 40 2yv8j29
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 12, 2014 3:50 pm

Marginal at best, looks accordin to models that its too warm for snow even inland. Of course temps change quickly and its way to early to make a call on that, that map looks okay possibly.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Dec 12, 2014 4:43 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Marginal at best, looks accordin to models that its too warm for snow even inland. Of course temps change quickly and its way to early to make a call on that, that map looks okay possibly.
Jman I really hope the one around Christmas comes through that sounds to be the time of the pattern change
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Dec 12, 2014 5:29 pm

@amugs wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:
@amugs wrote:I have a tap and the red cups SO WHO WANTS IN for this keg??? Frank I am going to form a new weather group for this pattern I shall call it..................................................

Phi Tappa Kegga
Lamda Wanna Snowa
Omega Frankzilla


That map is a map we have to actually behold, savior and archive for future references.

Doc I am sure the patients - dogs, cats, horses, sheep and chickens really appreciate your enthusiasm for this map - get the four wheel drive ready!!!

Let's get Doc and Hector and meet at your house....           drunken

Can't leave out CP from the LHV - he is part of the court from Snow Weenie land! Razz

Mugs, I mean your highness. This is why even though I often joke of your overthrow I'll always have your back.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 12, 2014 6:20 pm

Holy 18z gfs! yes I know 360 but daum. Not trusting anything that far out but still that would be a mecs if not a hecs.
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 12, 2014 6:31 pm

CP - thanks my man - I know I can trust you - hope you do not put anything in my back as I am turned though?!

JMAN - that is a beast if it were to happen and the delay of a day or two will allow the -nao to get more time to build and the 50/50 low to help as well.

A lot of storms coming up and the transition is about to happen sooner than we think.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by docstox12 Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:14 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@amugs wrote:I have a tap and the red cups SO WHO WANTS IN for this keg??? Frank I am going to form a new weather group for this pattern I shall call it..................................................

Phi Tappa Kegga
Lamda Wanna Snowa
Omega Frankzilla


That map is a map we have to actually behold, savior and archive for future references.

Doc I am sure the patients - dogs, cats, horses, sheep and chickens really appreciate your enthusiasm for this map - get the four wheel drive ready!!!

Let's get Doc and Hector and meet at your house....           drunken

I am so ready for dat!!!!!!!!!
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Post by docstox12 Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:17 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:
@amugs wrote:I have a tap and the red cups SO WHO WANTS IN for this keg??? Frank I am going to form a new weather group for this pattern I shall call it..................................................

Phi Tappa Kegga
Lamda Wanna Snowa
Omega Frankzilla


That map is a map we have to actually behold, savior and archive for future references.

Doc I am sure the patients - dogs, cats, horses, sheep and chickens really appreciate your enthusiasm for this map - get the four wheel drive ready!!!

Let's get Doc and Hector and meet at your house....           drunken

Can't leave out CP from the LHV - he is part of the court from Snow Weenie land! Razz

Mugs, I mean your highness. This is why even though I often joke of your overthrow I'll always have your back.

Until the King busts out on snow production.Then it's exile to Sector 11 with the Zookeeper!
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:29 pm

mugs I checked the only place I know that shows snow totals for the 384 hr run and that storm must be really fast because it only drops 4-10 inches, are we going to be lacking a block still?  I know its way off but I am wondering because it showed all snow and it accumulated so little (the site is instantweathermaps.com, I know its not all that accurate but with that run I was expecting some nuts total). But focusing on things we can at this time like the pattern if that map holds that was posted earlier we are really good, one question, like i stated above does it also have blocking, or will things still be really progressive?
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:35 pm

I have a question are we going to get a west based nao?
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Post by Snow88 Sat Dec 13, 2014 12:10 am

Monster storm keeps on showing up near the 26-27
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Dec 13, 2014 12:18 am

@jmanley32 wrote:mugs I checked the only place I know that shows snow totals for the 384 hr run and that storm must be really fast because it only drops 4-10 inches, are we going to be lacking a block still?  I know its way off but I am wondering because it showed all snow and it accumulated so little (the site is instantweathermaps.com, I know its not all that accurate but with that run I was expecting some nuts total). But focusing on things we can at this time like the pattern if that map holds that was posted earlier we are really good, one question, like i stated above does it also have blocking, or will things still be really progressive?

Jman all you need to know is a couple of those instant snow maps showed anywhere from 12-20 inches in Orange County 2-3 days before the last storm. I ended up with freezing rain then rain then an inch of snow. It's all for fun my man those snow maps are practically meaningless but still fun to look at as long as you don't take them serious.
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Post by HectorO Sat Dec 13, 2014 12:54 am

Did someone say beer?
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Post by algae888 Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:36 am

gfs and its ensembles take dec 21st low to lakes and redevelops off li. euro and cmc are colder. have low brush us passing just south and east. gfs is alone again.

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 40 Gfs_namer_192_10m_wnd_precip
gfs hr 192

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 40 F192
euro hr 192

Official Long Range Thread 4.0 - Page 40 F192
cmc hr 192.
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