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Nov. 1st Storm Observation Thread

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:21 am

Figure I would start one even though most of the action is modeled to stay offshore. But you never know with these type of events, and the inverted trough may try and enhance precip. along the coast.

Expected rain: .25-.75 inches (not including inverted trough precip, hard to say where that sets up).

Expected winds: 25-35 mph, gusts near 40 mph

Will clear out by Saturday night. Sunday looks great but with temps only in the 40's!

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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:22 am

Us coasties should be able to report some action

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by Quietace Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:24 am

@sroc4 wrote:Us coasties should be able to report some action
Ill put money on that ill be in the inverted trough. Same pattern, different day. Not that we really need the rain.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:26 am

@Quietace wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Us coasties should be able to report some action
Ill put money on that ill be in the inverted trough. Same pattern, different day. Not that we really need the rain.

You and Skins both. Id prob put some money down on that as well.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:28 am

Ryan, Tom (Isotherm), and Skins. Guaranteed.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:30 am

sroc u think I may get some action or too far east in the notch of NYC I guess you could call it. Seems winds may have been modeled too strong but who knows the last storm ended uop having way stronger winds than expected due to convection.
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Post by aiannone Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:34 am

12z NAM blasts SE Maine again. We need someone to go up to Maine and report observations lol
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:37 am

Alex if I was not so busy and working/school family I would drive up pick u up and road trip to maine, I wish I had been with you to meet Cantore last winter, that looke3d awesome, usually I am the only person to be crazy ehopugth to go outside during a strom in my neighborhood, I get looks who cares though!
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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:37 am

Mets2695 wrote:12z NAM blasts SE Maine again. We need someone to go up to Maine and report observations lol

Your closest! Maybe you can chill with Cantore again and get on TV..lol

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:38 am

@jmanley32 wrote:sroc u think I may get some action or too far east in the notch of NYC I guess you could call it.  Seems winds may have been modeled too strong but who knows the last storm ended uop having way stronger winds than expected due to convection.

Certainly possibile but I think the higher totals will remain S and East of you or offshore completely

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:41 am

Alex how did you see the NAM already? It has not even initialized on wxbell. it usually has by now.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:59 am

Wxbell is not working for the NAM at least stuck at 06z.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 31, 2014 11:04 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Wxbell is not working for the NAM at least stuck at 06z.

Use the models I have on the top tool bar Wink

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 31, 2014 11:24 am

Of course Frank but I PAY for that site, it should work : ) I saw the NAM, waiting to see if GFS will work.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Oct 31, 2014 11:46 am

Yea we are going to get our coldest temps of the season with this. Winds will howl this weekend. Doesnt look like its going to snow but Im ok with that at this juncture.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:40 pm

12z GGEM says bring on the rain

Nov. 1st Storm Observation Thread GArguXi

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:44 pm

What the heck is up with that scoop out for me and CT, come on lol. Well the outer part of that is pretty close to me but still it looks funny.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:45 pm

It is the inverted trough. Where that sets up is where the highest rain amounts will be

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:46 pm

Thats funny it also misses most of maine and any of the places for snow, if wxbell would work, I could see snow totals.
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Post by algae888 Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:47 pm

Wow central and southern New Jersey gets hit hard again. look how it misses Long Island that's strange. And Jman it pretty much misses us too!
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:48 pm

Yeah but i believe sroc said its going to be hard to say where the inverted trough sets up so that could shift east or west I assume.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:50 pm

High wind watches up for cape, up to boston and all of RI, I guess depending on how close it actually is to the coast and how much it deepens wil ldepend if we see advisories or watches of any kind. Right now NWS sees east. not even a HWO out. Of course Upton and Mt. Holly love to be the ones late to the party.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:51 pm

I think the pattern is the same cnj in the jackpot
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:52 pm

What are the winds expected to be cnj coast
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:52 pm

Guys pray for me that I get outta my work area unscathed, we leave early because the part of the south bronx I work in isn't exactly safe. I have had stuff thrown at my car including a friggin milkshake.
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