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November 2014 Obs and Discussion

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mako460
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November 2014 Obs and Discussion - Page 18 Empty Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:19 pm

Out in Mt Bethel, Eastern PA and for our annual Xmas tree cutting. It was so beautiful, scenic with 7-8" of snow on the ground and snow covered trees  perfect setting for Xmas and oh what a deal -  6-12' Douglas fur trees $35!!!!

Anyway only 31* out there today brrrrrrrr!

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November 2014 Obs and Discussion - Page 18 Empty Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion

Post by docstox12 Sun Nov 30, 2014 5:26 am

Real nice, Mugsy, THAT got you into the Christmas Spirit no doubt! A rare event for November around these parts.

35.7, 80%, 30.21 F

8:35 AM-----Snowpack attack up here has begun.....37.9, 79%, 30.22 F
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November 2014 Obs and Discussion - Page 18 Empty Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs Sun Nov 30, 2014 10:04 am

Even with a 52* forecast high today I see my temperature departure below average by about 2.7* for my area and others north and west of here 3-4* below normal temps!

A NOVEMBER TO REMEMBER !!

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November 2014 Obs and Discussion - Page 18 Empty Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Nov 30, 2014 10:27 am

Although we have had several pre Thanksgiving snowstorms in recent years, in one case 2011 a pre Halloween snowstorm, the last actual white Thanksgiving day, with snow on the ground although it didn't actually snow on Thanksgiving day, I remember was 1995 which of course was the prelude to the epic winter of 95-96.

We could only dream it leads to the same results again this year. For those that remember, our snowpack that year in the HV was continuous from Late November to early April. In areas to the south I don't think there were that many days in that time period where the ground was barren.

The last snowstorm I remember occurring on Thanksgiving day was 1989. That storm blanketed everyone including NYC and east but led to a crappy winter.
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November 2014 Obs and Discussion - Page 18 Empty Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion

Post by docstox12 Sun Nov 30, 2014 11:14 am

Yep, pretty much from late November through early April in Mahwah that 95-'96 epic year.

We have 50-50 results with white Thanksgiving's-----an epic year like 95-96 occured and a lousy year 89-90.Maybe this year will split the difference.We'll see very quickly because as you point out, CP, as December goes so goes the winter, in your excellent statistical reviews.
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November 2014 Obs and Discussion - Page 18 Empty Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 30, 2014 12:23 pm

Near 50 degrees here. Overcast. A day to watch movies and eat pasta

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November 2014 Obs and Discussion - Page 18 Empty Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 30, 2014 12:32 pm

Watching an overrunning event possibility mid-week. Could bring snow north of NYC Metro. Overrunning is typical in a progressive flow. With cold air in place and a High Pressure to the north, storms ride into the cold air.

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November 2014 Obs and Discussion - Page 18 Empty Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Nov 30, 2014 12:36 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Watching an overrunning event possibility mid-week. Could bring snow north of NYC Metro. Overrunning is typical in a progressive flow. With cold air in place and a High Pressure to the north, storms ride into the cold air.

I like the sound of that. Our snowcover will need a good refresh by then. Will be watching closely.
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November 2014 Obs and Discussion - Page 18 Empty Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Nov 30, 2014 12:39 pm

It still hasn't reached 40 here. 39.6 right now.

The snowcover and cloud cover are keeping temperatures suppressed.
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November 2014 Obs and Discussion - Page 18 Empty Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion

Post by docstox12 Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:41 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Watching an overrunning event possibility mid-week. Could bring snow north of NYC Metro. Overrunning is typical in a progressive flow. With cold air in place and a High Pressure to the north, storms ride into the cold air.

I like the sound of that. Our snowcover will need a good refresh by then. Will be watching closely.


Hmmmmmm, that would be 3 for 3 in the HV ,CP, doing better than S and E.Wonder if that is a trend setting up? Way too soon, but just an observation here.

43.1, 70%, 30.15 F. NWS mentions possible light rain after 3 here and sprinkles tonight.
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November 2014 Obs and Discussion - Page 18 Empty Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:51 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Watching an overrunning event possibility mid-week. Could bring snow north of NYC Metro. Overrunning is typical in a progressive flow. With cold air in place and a High Pressure to the north, storms ride into the cold air.

I like the sound of that. Our snowcover will need a good refresh by then. Will be watching closely.


Hmmmmmm, that would be 3 for 3 in the HV ,CP, doing better than S and E.Wonder if that is a trend setting up? Way too soon, but just an observation here.

43.1, 70%, 30.15 F. NWS mentions possible light rain after 3 here and sprinkles tonight.

Even if a S and E bias develops we usually still do ok. Look at last year, 71 inches and we missed the heavy precip on several storms but still did alright with better ratios and some that were just rain in areas S and E.
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November 2014 Obs and Discussion - Page 18 Empty Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:56 pm

And you my good fellow CP want to over throw me king ???

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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November 2014 Obs and Discussion - Page 18 Empty Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Nov 30, 2014 2:20 pm

@amugs wrote:And you my good fellow CP want to over throw me king ???

My good King, if you haven't done so already please read last nights post on the OTI thread it states where I stand very clearly.

If you produce I will fight to the death to defend your throne king if not well, just think back to the riots on YOOOOOOTI. It won't be pretty.
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November 2014 Obs and Discussion - Page 18 Empty Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion

Post by docstox12 Sun Nov 30, 2014 2:22 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Watching an overrunning event possibility mid-week. Could bring snow north of NYC Metro. Overrunning is typical in a progressive flow. With cold air in place and a High Pressure to the north, storms ride into the cold air.

I like the sound of that. Our snowcover will need a good refresh by then. Will be watching closely.


Hmmmmmm, that would be 3 for 3 in the HV ,CP, doing better than S and E.Wonder if that is a trend setting up? Way too soon, but just an observation here.

43.1, 70%, 30.15 F. NWS mentions possible light rain after 3 here and sprinkles tonight.

Even if a S and E bias develops we usually still do ok. Look at last year, 71 inches and we missed the heavy precip on several storms but still did alright with better ratios and some that were just rain in areas S and E.

You've got that right because I was S of you in Mahwah and only got 62.I'm here very recently and already see the HV effect with the two November snows we have just had.Better to be 50 miles away from the radiator than 25,LOL!

Temp dropped to 40.2, 30.14 F, 72%. Thick cloud cover, no wind again today.
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November 2014 Obs and Discussion - Page 18 Empty Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion

Post by Snow88 Mon Dec 01, 2014 12:14 am

Precip always come in earlier than modeled with overrunning events. Have to watch for that.
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Post by Snow88 Mon Dec 01, 2014 1:04 am

Euro is nice for inland areas. Dicey on the coast but I do think the coast sees non accumulating snow out of this.
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November 2014 Obs and Discussion - Page 18 Empty Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 01, 2014 2:07 am

I have a snow map made for Tuesday's storm but I will release it in the morning (well, it's 2am now so whenever I wake up, ha).

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Post by docstox12 Mon Dec 01, 2014 5:26 am

41.5, 86%, 30.15 F

Looks like maybe an inch of slop up here Tues-Weds and same for the weekend with these overriding events.Temps on a roller coaster this week.
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November 2014 Obs and Discussion - Page 18 Empty Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs Mon Dec 01, 2014 1:32 pm

Final Monthly Stats (Temp departures + Snow):

NYC: -2.4 (.2" of snow)

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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