November 2014 Obs and Discussion
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mako460
Snow88
Artechmetals
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SNOW MAN
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31 posters
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
Ok well I just read it off a guy I follow nycareaweather.com. he actually said 30 to 40 gudts. But he can be wrong. I listen to u guys more anyways.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
Man, someone got a little too excited with the temp gauge. I was it expecting to be cold tonight at work. I work in the elements because our garage doors have to stay open. Around this time in my area we were supposed to be 40 degrees going to about 38 and at 2:08 the temp guage says 50 LOL. Cloud coverage maybe even though I don't see many.
HectorO- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
Today is perfect
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
Cloudy and 44* here in Lyndonville, VT
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
Mets2695 wrote:Cloudy and 44* here in Lyndonville, VT
That sucks. Sunny and upper 60's here
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
Just hit 70* with nearly calm wind.
pretty much perfect, esp for Nov.
pretty much perfect, esp for Nov.
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
Talk about unbelievable, supposedly Nuri is going to BOMB out to the extreme and progged to drop 78mb in 24 hrs omg! And be nearing 900mb. I fear for anyone in that things path. You all know the butterfly effect, I am expecting major changes and storms to result in US and East coast of this, dunno why just a hunch with such a epic event.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
jmanley32 wrote:Talk about unbelievable, supposedly Nuri is going to BOMB out to the extreme and progged to drop 78mb in 24 hrs omg! And be nearing 900mb. I fear for anyone in that things path. You all know the butterfly effect, I am expecting major changes and storms to result in US and East coast of this, dunno why just a hunch with such a epic event.
Jman,
Said this is the long range thread last night and this morning even though I am off the painkillers and teh eagle has finally landed. This bomb will be a tremendous driving mechanism to unlock he cold air over that region - Siberia.
The implications I think are going to be crazy as it sits in the GOA off the Aleutians Islands - talk about Dead Or Alive Fishing up there - Jesus!
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
Reporting a observation i have been seeing on the Upgraded GFS.
I feel like it has and may continue to struggle with strong feedback errors due to its enhanced horizontal resolution. A look at the 18z GFS increases my confidence with this hypothesis. I have seen this type of issue occur many runs thus far. It occurs with the now operational GFS and i feel it may worsen due to the resolution enhancement.
You can see SE of the low position on the EC a random slug of intense moisture. That is the feedback im talking about. Since its been added to WxBell, i have seen this type of feedback all over the country in different situations. The programmers are still adjusting parameters and bugs on the model, and i will continue to watch this as we move towards its implementation in December. I may be wrong, But its peaked my curiosityand if i am correct, it may be a issue.
I feel like it has and may continue to struggle with strong feedback errors due to its enhanced horizontal resolution. A look at the 18z GFS increases my confidence with this hypothesis. I have seen this type of issue occur many runs thus far. It occurs with the now operational GFS and i feel it may worsen due to the resolution enhancement.
You can see SE of the low position on the EC a random slug of intense moisture. That is the feedback im talking about. Since its been added to WxBell, i have seen this type of feedback all over the country in different situations. The programmers are still adjusting parameters and bugs on the model, and i will continue to watch this as we move towards its implementation in December. I may be wrong, But its peaked my curiosityand if i am correct, it may be a issue.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
Great job Americans just in time for our most important season and they screw it up I have faith in you Ace that this is an issue going forward cmc, euro and ukie are the ones to follow until we hear otherwise. Hahaha.
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
I was a bit confused, so this new GFS higher resolution is replacing the older one? WHY if its having so many issues, I also thoght it was the 20th that it was starting remember reading that I think on Maues page. Yeah that is totally different than the other GFS which has a coastal but nowhere near that kind of precip, still have to watch in the next 7-10 for a big storm IMO.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
Currently 39.6* and still raining here at the college
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
Alex you have another chance on Wednesday but it depends on the track of the primary surface low
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
Killington and Jay Peak changed over to snow. Im down to 38.8 now. There will be snow here, especially with the wraparound moisture tomorrow morning, but accumulations may be confined to elevations higher than me.
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
Flurrying here at Lyndon State. Temp of 33.9* with an increasing NW wind gusting to 17mph
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
Lightly snowing now at Lyndon State with a temp of 33.6*!!
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
Their is so much talk about Nuri and how it is going to affect the weather and bring the cold to the Northeast their saying its as strong or if not stronger than Sandy
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
Some light snow here at Binghamton University temp 34
leimatt95- Posts : 14
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
skins, it is bigger and stronger than sandy could be down into nearing 900mb, 60-80 foot seas!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
Wow Jman does anyone have any maps of this beast of a stormjmanley32 wrote:skins, it is bigger and stronger than sandy could be down into nearing 900mb, 60-80 foot seas!
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
I believe there are some posted in long range her this one. Look back some pages on both. The isobars are so tightly packed u can barely tell they are apart!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
Remembering this day two years ago on my Birthday we had a foot of snow after Sandy to add to the destruction. Plowing snow with flooded roads no power at all and low power lines hanging everywhere
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
Yes they are - I posted yesterday? No Wed - Oh crap I forget but here is the map - if this hit anywhere near our coast we lose the shore hands down!!!
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
mugs do people live up there? What are the winds progged to be like, I know the swells and seas are the worst part of this monster. Epic and historic global system, to affect most of the planet or at least the US.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
Wow Amugs what a beast of a storm where is it heading I mean landfall. What was the pressure of Sandy wasn't it in the 940samugs wrote:Yes they are - I posted yesterday? No Wed - Oh crap I forget but here is the map - if this hit anywhere near our coast we lose the shore hands down!!!
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
Sandy I believe was 942? 946? This is progged as you can see 917. Sheesh, talk about ears popping!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: November 2014 Obs and Discussion
jmanley32 wrote:Sandy I believe was 942? 946? This is progged as you can see 917. Sheesh, talk about ears popping!
Correct Sandy was 942 but there was a buoy reading of 938 before she made the left hand turn and I forget what happened with such. Sandy was progged to be a low 950's MB storm and she went about 10 MB below this - if this BEAST hits single 900's which it could then the fish are going to be rockin' and rolling.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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