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November 2014 Obs and Discussion

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 04, 2014 12:58 pm

Today is perfect

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Post by aiannone Tue Nov 04, 2014 1:24 pm

Cloudy and 44* here in Lyndonville, VT
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 04, 2014 1:35 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Cloudy and 44* here in Lyndonville, VT

That sucks. Sunny and upper 60's here Surprised Smile Very Happy Cool Laughing

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Post by Dtone Tue Nov 04, 2014 3:05 pm

Just hit 70* with nearly calm wind.
pretty much perfect, esp for Nov.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 06, 2014 3:59 pm

Talk about unbelievable, supposedly Nuri is going to BOMB out to the extreme and progged to drop 78mb in 24 hrs omg! And be nearing 900mb. I fear for anyone in that things path. You all know the butterfly effect, I am expecting major changes and storms to result in US and East coast of this, dunno why just a hunch with such a epic event.
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Post by amugs Thu Nov 06, 2014 4:21 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Talk about unbelievable, supposedly Nuri is going to BOMB out to the extreme and progged to drop 78mb in 24 hrs omg!  And be nearing 900mb.  I fear for anyone in that things path.  You all know the butterfly effect, I am expecting major changes and storms to result in US and East coast of this, dunno why just a hunch with such a epic event.

Jman,

Said this is the long range thread last night and this morning even though I am off the painkillers and teh eagle has finally landed. This bomb will be a tremendous driving mechanism to unlock he cold air over that region - Siberia.

The implications I think are going to be crazy as it sits in the GOA off the Aleutians Islands - talk about Dead Or Alive Fishing up there - Jesus!

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Post by Quietace Thu Nov 06, 2014 8:18 pm

Reporting a observation i have been seeing on the Upgraded GFS.
I feel like it has and may continue to struggle with strong feedback errors due to its enhanced horizontal resolution. A look at the 18z GFS increases my confidence with this hypothesis. I have seen this type of issue occur many runs thus far. It occurs with the now operational GFS and i feel it may worsen due to the resolution enhancement.
November 2014 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_sl10
You can see SE of the low position on the EC a random slug of intense moisture. That is the feedback im talking about. Since its been added to WxBell, i have seen this type of feedback all over the country in different situations. The programmers are still adjusting parameters and bugs on the model, and i will continue to watch this as we move towards its implementation in December. I may be wrong, But its peaked my curiosityand if i am correct, it may be a issue.

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Post by amugs Thu Nov 06, 2014 8:25 pm

Great job Americans just in time for our most important season and they screw it up I have faith in you Ace that this is an issue going forward cmc, euro and ukie are the ones to follow until we hear otherwise. Hahaha.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 06, 2014 8:53 pm

I was a bit confused, so this new GFS higher resolution is replacing the older one? WHY if its having so many issues, I also thoght it was the 20th that it was starting remember reading that I think on Maues page. Yeah that is totally different than the other GFS which has a coastal but nowhere near that kind of precip, still have to watch in the next 7-10 for a big storm IMO.
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Post by aiannone Thu Nov 06, 2014 8:59 pm

Currently 39.6* and still raining here at the college Sad
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:10 pm

Alex you have another chance on Wednesday but it depends on the track of the primary surface low

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Post by aiannone Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:29 pm

Killington and Jay Peak changed over to snow. Im down to 38.8 now. There will be snow here, especially with the wraparound moisture tomorrow morning, but accumulations may be confined to elevations higher than me.
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Post by aiannone Fri Nov 07, 2014 10:25 am

Flurrying here at Lyndon State. Temp of 33.9* with an increasing NW wind gusting to 17mph
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Post by aiannone Fri Nov 07, 2014 10:55 am

Lightly snowing now at Lyndon State with a temp of 33.6*!!
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Nov 07, 2014 11:28 am

Their is so much talk about Nuri and how it is going to affect the weather and bring the cold to the Northeast their saying its as strong or if not stronger than Sandy
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Post by leimatt95 Fri Nov 07, 2014 11:54 am

Some light snow here at Binghamton University temp 34

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Nov 07, 2014 12:10 pm

skins, it is bigger and stronger than sandy could be down into nearing 900mb, 60-80 foot seas!
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:03 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:skins, it is bigger and stronger than sandy could be down into nearing 900mb, 60-80 foot seas!
Wow Jman does anyone have any maps of this beast of a storm
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:06 pm

I believe there are some posted in long range her this one. Look back some pages on both. The isobars are so tightly packed u can barely tell they are apart!
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:08 pm

Remembering this day two years ago on my Birthday we had a foot of snow after Sandy to add to the destruction. Plowing snow with flooded roads no power at all and low power lines hanging everywhere
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Post by amugs Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:09 pm

Yes they are - I posted yesterday? No Wed - Oh crap I forget but here is the map - if this hit anywhere near our coast we lose the shore hands down!!!

November 2014 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Rj1vr9

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:10 pm

mugs do people live up there? What are the winds progged to be like, I know the swells and seas are the worst part of this monster. Epic and historic global system, to affect most of the planet or at least the US.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:12 pm

@amugs wrote:Yes they are - I posted yesterday? No Wed - Oh crap I forget but here is the map - if this hit anywhere near our coast we lose the shore hands down!!!

November 2014 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Rj1vr9
Wow Amugs what a beast of a storm where is it heading I mean landfall. What was the pressure of Sandy wasn't it in the 940s
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:14 pm

Sandy I believe was 942? 946? This is progged as you can see 917. Sheesh, talk about ears popping!
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Post by amugs Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:47 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Sandy I believe was 942? 946?  This is progged as you can see 917.  Sheesh, talk about ears popping!

Correct Sandy was 942 but there was a buoy reading of 938 before she made the left hand turn and I forget what happened with such. Sandy was progged to be a low 950's MB storm and she went about 10 MB below this - if this BEAST hits single 900's which it could then the fish are going to be rockin' and rolling.


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