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November 14th Possible first flakes for some!!

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November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! Empty November 14th Possible first flakes for some!!

Post by sroc4 Tue Nov 11, 2014 2:59 pm

Well Frank I hope you don't mind but since this system in under 72hrs away, and second one is right on the heals (and I have the time today to do it) I am going to separate this system into different threads to keep things strait.  

These are my thoughts.  Others may see things differently.  To summarize this Friday this will be a weak wave of energy moving off the SC/NC coast passing well to our south and east.  With it comes the possibility of a weak LP developing and moving E/NE; much to far S/E for any major impacts(Yellow Line).  Eventually it will phase with a LP that passes to our north.  The LP to our N will drag the cold front through wed into Thursday brining some light rain showers, but no phasing occurs between the two until they are well up into E Canada.  
November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! <a href=November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! Sat_im11" />

However; The southern wave may throw back enough moisture towards the coast to give many of us; esp along the immediate coast some snow showers or flurries Friday morning.  This is not set in stone however as we still have a little over 48hrs to go.  IMO The best chance to see precip is going to be the immediate coast along NJ extending north to NYC and LI/Ct coast and up into the cape; however; it is still possible that a small amt of QPF could make it further inland to affect areas like central and northern NJ and CT.  Lets look at a little more detail.  

First off the question is will there be any moisture that even makes it into our area since it looks like this system stays pretty far S and E.  Todays CMC is the most aggressive with bringing moisture into the area between 00z Friday and 12z Friday.  The NAM and Euro backed off a little with QPF from Friday morning on todays 12z run and here is the P-GFS.    
November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! <a href=November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! Cmc_tp10" />
November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! <a href=November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! Euro_t10" />
November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! <a href=November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! Pgfs_t10" />

Keep in mind these totals include some QPF from the frontal passage that will push through Wed into Thurs.  Most of the precip you see on the P-GFS is from fridays system however (and it aint much).  Now here is a wild card in just how strong of a system this will be (which it will be weak in general, but just how weak) and where it tracks.  Take another quick look at the sat image I posted above.  This is a point I am taking from Steve Dimartino.  Notice the beautiful LP system due east of the Fla/Ga coast.  Currently there are warmer then normal water temps compared to avgs by and large up and down the east coast.  The result of this can lead to enhanced upward motion to a developing system off the coast leading to a more robust system than what is being modeled in the 2-4days range.  The system off the E coast of Fla is much more robust than was originally modeled a few days ago.  With this idea in mind we may see models trend a little wetter with Fridays system in the next 24-48hrs (even if they don't we still may have to watch for this esp if the track shifts slight N)

Now that we have discussed IF moisture is available, the next question is will it be frozen or just a littl cold rain?  Well following the frontal passage Wed night into Thursday the 850mb crash.  By friday morning, when the moisture from this system is progged to move into the area, the 850mb temps are forecasted to be anywhere from -6*C to -10*C depending on exactly where you live.  All major models show this.  Here are the 850mb temps for the P-GFS CMC and Euro respectively for Friday 12z.
November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! <a href=November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! Gfs_t810" />
November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! <a href=November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! Cmc_t810" />
November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! <a href=November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! Ecmwf_10" />

Here are some key points.  1) once you get away from the immediate coast the 850mb temps and surface temps should support snow.  The question is can we get some QPF to inland areas?
                                       2) Im pretty sure (85%) that areas along the immediate coast will see some form of light to very light precip Friday morning.  The 850mb temps are plenty cold to support it being snow; however, the 2M temps are forecasted to be around Mid to upper 30's (esp along the S shore and east end of LI and rising with the sun into the 40's by afternoon so it is possible that if the precip is in the area in the late morning early afternoon the light snow in the upper levels melts before gets to the surface and a light cold rain happens.  If precip moves in before 9-10am I think snow showers along the coast is a safe bet.  

My gut is thinking many see there first flakes.  This will only be a light event no matter how it plays out.  No accumulation is expected at this time.  With that being said..........................................................................

Here is my first snow map of the season!!  FTMFW!!
November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! <a href=November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! First_10" />

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 11, 2014 3:34 pm

Nice sroc, heh believe it or not if we do get a dusting (or a long shot with that LP, more) I will have to allow a lot of extra time to get to work as every friggin year our first snow flakes make people panic and accidents all over, may not even be because roads are slippery.  It sucks, but I will love to see our first flakes.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 11, 2014 5:08 pm

No problem at all Doc I was going to start one too. That system off the coast of Florida is very weak - hence its invisibility on the H5 maps, plus it looks like it will be traveling too far out to sea. So I have a feeling it will not help enhance precip at all and there will be no southern stream energy involved with this system. Instead, all this will likely be is precip. being enhanced along the baroclinic zone (a temp. pressure gradient) and the immediate coast seeing the most precip since SST's are warmer than normal and the arctic front is carrying strong s/w energy.

That being said, I agree with Doc's snow map but would extend the purple more north and west.

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Post by sroc4 Tue Nov 11, 2014 6:00 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:No problem at all Doc I was going to start one too. That system off the coast of Florida is very weak - hence its invisibility on the H5 maps, plus it looks like it will be traveling too far out to sea. So I have a feeling it will not help enhance precip at all and there will be no southern stream energy involved with this system. Instead, all this will likely be is precip. being enhanced along the baroclinic zone (a temp. pressure gradient) and the immediate coast seeing the most precip since SST's are warmer than normal and the arctic front is carrying strong s/w energy.

That being said, I agree with Doc's snow map but would extend the purple more north and west.

Frank Im not sure if it came across that way but I was not trying imply that the system currently off the Fla coast would somehow enhance Fridays system.  That system yes is relatively weak at 1008mb, I believe it was a tad lower earlier at 1007mb.  I was merely pointing out that there is enhanced convection associated with this system esp N and east enhanced by the warmer SST anomalies off the east coast the intensity of which was not prev modeled quite the way it actually developed today.  This was not my original idea, but was pointed out on this mornings discussion by Steve D regarding this sytem which I mentioned in the blog.  My thought was could Fridays weak wave be enhanced by this same reasoning?  
November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! Ft-animated

The weak wave that develops the LP is via this in the STJ:(at least that's what I thought)
November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! <a href=November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! Cmc_z510" />
November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! <a href=November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! Cmc_pr10" />
And is then enhanced by the barclonic zone set up by the approaching arctic front looking like this:
November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! <a href=November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! Cmc_z511" />
November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! <a href=November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! Cmc_pr11" />
This is the CMC, the most robust with QPF.  Im suggesting that the other models are under playing the QPF (slightly) because of this idea and should, or might trend towards the CMC with QPF amts.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 11, 2014 6:17 pm

Yea I was referencing Steve D's point. It's an interesting observation. I guess it depends on the speed of the energy involved with the STJ. Guidance isn't really doing anything with it right now.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 11, 2014 11:08 pm

The timing is pretty lame, but it looks increasingly likely we'll see our first snow flurries of the season (for most) early Friday morning, between 1am-7am

November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f57

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Post by Snow88 Tue Nov 11, 2014 11:32 pm

0z GGEM for Friday

November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! Etrxon

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Post by algae888 Tue Nov 11, 2014 11:41 pm

ggem here is a better picture. rain to snow for most. LP looks further north and westNovember 14th Possible first flakes for some!! I_nw_g1_EST_2014111200_051
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Post by Snow88 Tue Nov 11, 2014 11:50 pm

0z GFS snowmap from the little wave on Friday and the storm on Monday
November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! 2wc4290
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 11, 2014 11:52 pm

snow anything past Friday is going into long range for now until a seperate thread is opened. I believe anyways.  If you look at long range thread I posted some good images of Mondays storm.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Nov 12, 2014 10:43 am

Man, the energy on the 12z GFS at H5 is pretty potent. I have a feeling once that energy feels the warm SST's off our coast, it is going to enhance snowfall and surprise you folks on LI with accumulating snow, possibly an inch. The thermal gradient at the baroclinic zone is going to help with that.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Nov 12, 2014 11:13 am

What interests me with the Friday storm is the potent H5 energy involved within the arctic front. Once the baroclinic zone sets up off the coast, it could enhance precip rates for some places especially with SST's running above normal. Here is my 1st call map, expecting many to see just snow showers (non-accumulating), but leaving open the possibility the coast could see light accumulations. First map of the season...always feels nice.

November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! 10806199_833500880035006_6667780139748524320_n

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Nov 12, 2014 11:14 am

12z GFS on both brongs a half inch or more to much of the area for Friday morning, great timing :/. It will be nice to see though. This has trended wetter each run. Curious about the Euro.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Nov 12, 2014 12:12 pm

12z UKMET also recognizing enhanced precip along the coast

November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! 5jobADF

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Nov 12, 2014 12:18 pm

That's qpf fronk so if I am correct that would be about 2-3 inches in the darker blue 5mm is .19 (1.9 assuming 10:1 ratio (which it will probably be less and 7.5mm is .29, so 2.9 inches. Trending wetter, since past few days. But still not a huge deal but I will take a inche or two on November 14th, I do not even recall the last Nov snow other than 7th in 2012.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Nov 12, 2014 12:20 pm

Yea, I would be ecstatic with even just half an inch in November. Haha

But I'm not sure that is all snow on the UKMET.

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Post by amugs Wed Nov 12, 2014 2:43 pm

GFS - Parallel

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111212/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_7.png


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Post by jmanley32 Wed Nov 12, 2014 3:24 pm

Euro brings NYC metro nothing : ( This not a good signal when the Euro does not agree with the GFS. Bastardi thinks it will trend towards the Euro but I think he means with system #2 which I am posting something in long range now for #2.
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Post by algae888 Wed Nov 12, 2014 3:55 pm

nws precip forecast.
November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! StormTotalQPFFcst
much higher than originally thought. however no snow accum.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Nov 12, 2014 4:03 pm

I do not think that is right, no snow anywhere? Something is up with the precip and the temps, unless the temps were way off. These maps change a lot.
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Post by Artechmetals Wed Nov 12, 2014 4:51 pm

Jman , been a follower for years and I think frank and the rest of you guys are great , I'm trying to understand why the board is calling for cold temps but when I check the local mets they have temps into the middle forties . Are they wrong ?
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Nov 12, 2014 5:02 pm

@Artechmetals wrote:Jman , been a follower for years and I think frank and the rest of you guys are great , I'm trying to understand why the board is calling for cold temps but when I check the local mets they have temps into the middle forties . Are they wrong ?

Mid 40's isn't cold for November? Our average is in the 50's, haha.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Nov 12, 2014 5:03 pm

November 14th Possible first flakes for some!! SN_000-048_0000

18z rgem snow map...elevations in Northwest NJ and in SNOWMAN territory in NEPA could see a surprise accumulation

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Post by Artechmetals Wed Nov 12, 2014 5:06 pm

Hey Frank , was asking because everyone was talking about possible snows and temps below 40 . Just saw your explanation on the other thread thanks for the input
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Nov 12, 2014 5:22 pm

@Artechmetals wrote:Hey Frank , was asking because everyone was talking about possible snows and temps below 40 . Just saw your explanation on the other thread thanks for the input

One thing to keep in mind, and that goes for everyone, is when myself or Sroc or anyone else posts model images and they show cold temps or snow, it does NOT mean A) we are forecasting it and B) that's how it's going to play out. Models are used to compliment forecasting. They're not to be taken verbatim

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