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November 17th Storm Threat

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Nov 13, 2014 9:21 pm

Another storm is set to hit the area on Monday which could bring with it a wintry mix with snow for interior areas, especially higher elevations.

November 17th Storm Threat Ecmwf_z500a_noram_17

As you can see from the image above, the upper level pattern is NOT favorable for snow to fall to the coast. At least not for the entire event. The reason being is the poor placement of the western ridge and the PV. The ridge is too far off the west coast. This in turn allows the PV to stay further west, near the Hudson Bay, instead of being in eastern Canada which would have provided us with confluence to keep a storm track further south and the cold air in place. As you can see, heights are rising along the east coast.

That being said, I'm expecting another minor accumulation in eastern PA due to the impressiveness of the cold air with rain along the coast, which could end as a switch over to snow or a mix.

If things drastically change, I will make everyone aware of it but my focus this weekend will be on the Winter Outlook.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Nov 13, 2014 9:27 pm

"PV to stay further west" is the setup I'm looking for to allow for some bigger storms to come up and ride the coast this season. Would be a good thing but not a good thing at this juncture.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 13, 2014 10:00 pm

I am going for thr gold and hoping the PV shifts : )  Even so some runs except for today especially the Euro yesterday showed a strong system with wind gusts 50-60mph, dunno if that was just a hiccup of the Euro or if it deepens that much.  We will see as we can see with tonights system a lot changes. Nowcasting seems to be the theme this year.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:08 pm

GFS (not parallel) coming in with the cold far enough to give NYC snow, this may be becoming a trend.  Plus its a lot stronger than last runs.

November 17th Storm Threat Gfs_1010
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Post by Vinnydula Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:09 pm

Lets hope
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:12 pm

The parallel is similar : )
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Post by rb924119 Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:29 pm

Jman, can you post the parallel, or know where I can view it? Thanks!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:36 pm

Old GFS - rain coast, snow interior (SNOW MAN)

November 17th Storm Threat GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f99

New GFS - same thing, just weaker and less amplified

November 17th Storm Threat GFS-PARA_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f99

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:37 pm

Both models have a changeover to snow for the coast, but how often does back-end work out? Not very much, especially in November.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:43 pm

Hey Frank, haven't looked much but I noticed in tonight's 00Z GFS OP that even though the ridge axis is not ideally placed, the main PV trough stays positively tilted long enough to steer the surface low more easterly than northerly (at first). I've been seeing this signal on and off for the past few days, and I think that is going to be the main variable in this, because the ridge development/progressions seems fairly certain. It is all going to come down to that digging vort max (isn't it always? :p), and right now, at least with the american models, it seems to be weaker.....

And thanks for the images!!

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Post by rb924119 Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:49 pm

I wouldn't complain a bit if that verified....I'd get a good 5-8in there Very Happy

November 17th Storm Threat Gfsp_asnow_us_19


Last edited by rb924119 on Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:51 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:50 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Hey Frank, haven't looked much but I noticed in tonight's 00Z GFS OP that even though the ridge axis is not ideally placed, the main PV trough stays positively tilted long enough to steer the surface low more easterly than northerly (at first). I've been seeing this signal on and off for the past few days, and I think that is going to be the main variable in this, because the ridge development/progressions seems fairly certain. It is all going to come down to that digging vort max (isn't it always? :p), and right now, at least with the american models, it seems to be weaker.....

And thanks for the images!!

The vort is weaker on the GFS compared to the EURO. At 12z Monday, the 12z EURO has the mean trough further west compared to the 00z GFS and shows more amplification - hence the warmer solution. GFS has been consistently cold with this system, but not sure I trust its temp. profiles. Still a system that needs to be watched given the variables at play. There is also east-based blocking, which makes me feel even more this storm will try to cut a little and raise heights more than we would like resulting in an interior snow event.

00z GFS

November 17th Storm Threat Gfs_z500_sig_noram_15

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Post by rb924119 Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:54 pm

Yeah, the GFS definitely tends to have a "cold" bias to it, ESPECIALLY coming into the winter season ahahaa one never can tell, though. It very well could turn into a now-cast with respect to the surface low, especially if marginal thermal profiles are in place. Gotta watch where the strongest low-level WAA and mid-level height falls set up ahead of it in that case, because that will determine the ultimate track

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Post by rb924119 Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:56 pm

Regardless of track, though, I think this thing has the potential to really crank given the strong baroclinicity that will be present. That's going to really provide nice instability both at the surface and upper levels.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:56 pm

I hope we down here can at least get something because tonight appears to have been  a total letdown, oh well just to track in November is something.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:57 pm

I want 4-6 rb, make it happen lol
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Post by rb924119 Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:58 pm

GFS Ensemble looks to be in strong agreement with the OP through 72.....

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Post by rb924119 Fri Nov 14, 2014 12:01 am

LMAO Jman, if I could control the weather like that, let me tell you; WE'D ALLLLLL BE SICK OF SNOW ahahahaha

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 14, 2014 12:03 am

@jmanley32 wrote:I hope we down here can at least get something because tonight appears to have been  a total letdown, oh well just to track in November is something.

Yea exactly. I do not expect snow here until X-mas. This is all bonus.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 14, 2014 12:04 am

@rb924119 wrote:LMAO Jman, if I could control the weather like that, let me tell you; WE'D ALLLLLL BE SICK OF SNOW ahahahaha

rb where's your location?

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Post by rb924119 Fri Nov 14, 2014 12:06 am

Pike County, PA, elevation ~1800ft. If you want an exact location-follow 84 and literally directly between Scranton and Port Jervis is where I'm at lol

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 14, 2014 12:11 am

@rb924119 wrote:Pike County, PA, elevation ~1800ft. If you want an exact location-follow 84 and literally directly between Scranton and Port Jervis is where I'm at lol

Ohh so you're in SNOW MAN territory. How much snow you end with? I added you to the forum map. Congrats, you're official now.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Nov 14, 2014 12:24 am

Awesome!!!! And I haven't stuck the ruler in it (not enough for me to :p) but we now have a SOLID 1.5 working on 2. Big aggregate snowflakes are really "poofing" our totals atm. Word of advice for forecasting for this plateau-upslope (although you know your stuff). Nobody ever thinks about it like on the tv or radio, but I've lived here my entire life, and no matter what direction storms come from, we get upslope enhancement even AFTER the storms pull away. It's really incredible, honestly. I'm actually a met (graduated with a B.S. in Meterology) and it still amazes me every time ahahaha

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Post by rb924119 Fri Nov 14, 2014 12:27 am

Just measured-2.0" on the money.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 14, 2014 1:33 am

00z Euro was just a strung out mess for Monday. Rain for all

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