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November 17th Storm Threat

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 14, 2014 1:36 am

November 17th Storm Threat - Page 2 1483300_833080763410771_5601646867086297056_n

Actually euro trended colder for the interior northeast, but no one is really from there (central PA) on this forum, haha. Northeast PA in rb and Snow Man territory have a good shot again.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Nov 14, 2014 5:32 am

@rb924119 wrote:Pike County, PA, elevation ~1800ft. If you want an exact location-follow 84 and literally directly between Scranton and Port Jervis is where I'm at lol

rb, know that area well, pass by on 84 on the way to Lake Wallenpaupack or down to Pecks Pond.Been going to Wallenpaupack nearly 40 years.Beautiful country out there.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Nov 14, 2014 8:29 am

I'm 5 miles from 'Paupack Lake!! lol Yeah it is, I absolutely love it back here....so much natural beauty, especially when it snows lmao

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Nov 14, 2014 8:33 am

Bah cold rain.. Hate this setup when were in the cold rain sector.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Nov 14, 2014 8:42 am

And yeah, Frank, EURO OP definitely trended colder and the ensembles look like they are trending that way as well. Look at the 850s spaghetti.......many more members have the 850mb 0C line going through some part of northwestern NJ than the mean and the OP for sure. The only reason the mean is as far northwest as it is, is because of a handful of far-western outliers. 06Z GFS Ensemble 850s are the same as the EURO. Things could be getting quite interesting for those of us in the far north and west.


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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Nov 14, 2014 9:12 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Bah cold rain.. Hate this setup when were in the cold rain sector.

Couldn't agree more. It's my least favorite weather. Maybe we'll see some backend snow...gonna get reallll chilly 'round here come Wed.
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Post by aiannone Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:04 am

12z GFS coming in with a northern Interior event
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:05 am

Bah, no interest to me if no shot in the dark to get anything here. I have to be running around city Monday its going to suck.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:07 am

Old GFS OP is warm yet still gets far zones white. The new GFS CRUSHES the interior with snow. Would not be surprised to see snowfall numbers 10+, but it's only out to 72 so far lol

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:11 am

Damn luck guys, maybe some miracle will happen and the PV will move so tempos get closer to the area. From what I am seeing and hearing though doesn't seem that way.
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Post by aiannone Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:11 am

November 17th Storm Threat - Page 2 Gfs_6h10
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Post by rb924119 Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:14 am

November 17th Storm Threat - Page 2 Gfsp_asnow_us_18

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Post by aiannone Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:15 am

Well that shows quite a bit more than the Operational 12z GFS lol
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Post by rb924119 Fri Nov 14, 2014 3:10 pm

EURO OP and ensembles definitely came in warmer than 00z but there is still really large spread in the location of the R/S. The difference here is that the 12z has more interaction with the northern surface low and opens up earlier, allowing the cold air to be scoured out a little more. The 00z kept more a separate southern stream piece longer which allowed a stronger CAD event in the northwestern zones. What does look hopeful is that the ensembles have increased to the snow totals, so the likelihood of at least a moderate event is growing, we just don't know exactly where yet lmao

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Post by rb924119 Fri Nov 14, 2014 3:14 pm

12z has a slightly sharper trough and is slightly faster than 00z at H5.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Nov 14, 2014 3:42 pm

Not interested, cold rain, next. Pattern following will get very cold as we're in the trough this storm drags through then moderation after that, pattern looks meh after that, not really a bad SE ridge and GLC setup like we can typically get into this time of year but a transient fall like pattern with no real established setup. I've seen a storm pop up in the long range around the Thanksgiving week that may have potential but it's too early to give too much thought atm.
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Post by aiannone Fri Nov 14, 2014 5:32 pm

Burlington now was 70% of snow Monday and Monday night here in Lyndonville, VT. They are expecting about 4-6" with 6"+ possible for elevations above 1000ft. We are at about 1,030ft here at the college so hopefully we can tap in on those higher amounts!
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Post by aiannone Fri Nov 14, 2014 10:41 pm

0z GFS is rolling!
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Post by aiannone Fri Nov 14, 2014 10:59 pm

Looks good for the Northern Interior parts of New England. Our first snowstorm seems to be looming here at Lyndon. I guessed Monday to give us our first inch here at Lyndon in the first inch contest so i may win $70 lol! Anywho, here are the frames. Nice CAD over northern and central VT. Models seem to have converged on a Low track over LI, into RI, and then scooting ENE off the coast from there.

November 17th Storm Threat - Page 2 Gfs_ms16
November 17th Storm Threat - Page 2 Gfs_ms11
November 17th Storm Threat - Page 2 Gfs_ms12
November 17th Storm Threat - Page 2 Gfs_ms13
November 17th Storm Threat - Page 2 Gfs_ms14
November 17th Storm Threat - Page 2 Gfs_ms15
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Post by amugs Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:00 pm

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus.htmlCONGRATS ALEX!!
November 17th Storm Threat - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus

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Post by aiannone Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:03 pm

@amugs wrote:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus.htmlCONGRATS ALEX!!
November 17th Storm Threat - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus

Yupp looks like our first advisory level snow or dare i say Warning criteria snow looks to be on the way. Models are converging on this track it seems which is our "perfect scenario track" here at Lyndon!
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Post by amugs Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:04 pm

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus.html

You get 6" easy from this - enjoy!!

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Post by aiannone Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:05 pm

Do they have an accumulation map mugs? Wxbell hasnt loaded them yet.
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Post by amugs Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:08 pm

GFS PARA - AGREES!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111500/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus.html

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Post by amugs Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:09 pm

Here you go - plastered!

November 17th Storm Threat - Page 2 Gfsp_asnow_eus
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111500/gfsp_asnow_eus.html

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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