November 17th Storm Threat
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HectorO
skinsfan1177
Dunnzoo
CPcantmeasuresnow
algae888
amugs
aiannone
SoulSingMG
docstox12
rb924119
Vinnydula
jmanley32
NjWeatherGuy
Frank_Wx
18 posters
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
GFS PARA - AGREES!
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111500/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus.html
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111500/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus.html
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
Here you go - plastered!
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111500/gfsp_asnow_eus.html
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111500/gfsp_asnow_eus.html
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
amugs wrote:Here you go - plastered!
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111500/gfsp_asnow_eus.html
YES!!! THANKS MUGS!
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
We get a soaking rain and you get the gods - dam HP slides off the coast parallel to Jersey and pumps the SE ridge a bit and Cold Air 6 hours too late to the show - Snowman see a good coating to couple of inches out there in EPA if it works out and how far into PA he is.
Good night!
Good night!
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
amugs wrote: We get a soaking rain and you get the gods - dam HP slides off the coast parallel to Jersey and pumps the SE ridge a bit and Cold Air 6 hours too late to the show - Snowman see a good coating to couple of inches out there in EPA if it works out and how far into PA he is.
Good night!
I have to say, it's nice being off the coast for snowstorms lol. I'll bite my tongue though when the coast gets a huge blizzard and I get flurries up here lol!
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
Yea this looks like a done deal for the coast. The PV is oriented so that it raises heights along the east coast which allows temps to the surge. Also doesn't help that the energy can't consolidate itself anywhere. It looks like a strung out mess. Alex this should easily be your first advisory snow, but I warn that if this storm trends east your totals would get cut down. Even if this storm does trend east, I only expect it to benefit NEPA and maybe NWNJ. In other words, expect rain for the majority of us Monday. A crappy day for sure.
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
cmc is east with some frozen precip n/w of city....Monday morning
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
aiannone wrote:0z CMC Snowfall
alex you do very well if cmc verifies. i'm sure you'll take it in a heart beat
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
algae888 wrote:aiannone wrote:0z CMC Snowfall
alex you do very well if cmc verifies. i'm sure you'll take it in a heart beat
Ohh yea no doubt! Looking at 3-5" with isolated 6" amounts right now
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
NWS calling for 1 1/2 inches of slop up here with maybe some backend snow Monday night.UGH! Would rather it be all rain,
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
docstox12 wrote:NWS calling for 1 1/2 inches of slop up here with maybe some backend snow Monday night.UGH! Would rather it be all rain,
What was our low this morning Doc? Do we still have snow on the ground?
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:docstox12 wrote:NWS calling for 1 1/2 inches of slop up here with maybe some backend snow Monday night.UGH! Would rather it be all rain,
What was our low this morning Doc? Do we still have snow on the ground?
BTW- Happy Birthday Doc, and many more to follow.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
Happy Birthday DOC - God Bless and many more to come - Healthy and Happy!!
Cold friggin' rain - lovely Nov weather - I will take this now for a 4-6" event later!
SNOW right on the edge my man snow/mix - may see a few inches.
Cold friggin' rain - lovely Nov weather - I will take this now for a 4-6" event later!
SNOW right on the edge my man snow/mix - may see a few inches.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
The euro is so warm even Alex sees rain
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
nam is very warm too...
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
Frank_Wx wrote:The euro is so warm even Alex sees rain
Yea Burlington and Albany are nothing going with a CMC/GFS blend and not using the euro. They think its too NW and warm.
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
Euro ens are colder so I think the OP is a little off
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
Wow, whether or not we get rain or snow the wind gusts are going to be high (this website can exaggerate but its only 57 hrs out)! Of course this is based off the GFS only.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
The GEFs 12z ensembles have 900mb winds between 60-85 kts either right at or even a bit onshore around 60 hrs, def have to keep a eye on that. I am a amzed at how much GFS backed off on the snow even inaldn, HWO for poconos though and this for RB says could be a ice issue with 1-2/10ths of a inch of ice on top of snow. Thats nasty, but not damaging thank goodness. Looks about a inche to inch and half of rain for most with GFS. Euro coming on soon.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
Dang Euro agrees 60 hr winds areas could see high wind warning criteria or close to it.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
And then next frame LI gets slammed with near 70mph wind gusts damn,
still could change but Euro and GFS basically agree on there being a strong wind event component to it, not going to be fun if it coincides with a a bitter rain.
still could change but Euro and GFS basically agree on there being a strong wind event component to it, not going to be fun if it coincides with a a bitter rain.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:docstox12 wrote:NWS calling for 1 1/2 inches of slop up here with maybe some backend snow Monday night.UGH! Would rather it be all rain,
What was our low this morning Doc? Do we still have snow on the ground?
BTW- Happy Birthday Doc, and many more to follow.
Thanks CP, my fellow HV friend for the nice sentiment.The HV had a nice little pre-birthday present with that 2 inches of snow.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
amugs wrote:Happy Birthday DOC - God Bless and many more to come - Healthy and Happy!!
Cold friggin' rain - lovely Nov weather - I will take this now for a 4-6" event later!
SNOW right on the edge my man snow/mix - may see a few inches.
Thanks Mugsy, always a pleasure talking to you, oh King!
Thinking I'm in the slop for this next one but maybe and inch or two of that.Keep em coming guys!!!!!!!!
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
Jman with the winds and temperatures around freezing Tuesday afternoon wind chills are going to be in the teens and maybe two near 0 Tuesday night going to feel bitter cold. with this impressive cold coming too bad we're missing the chance for snow
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: November 17th Storm Threat
Hey happy b-day doc. My family is in VT near Okemo in the mountains and have a bit of snow.
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