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November 17th Storm Threat

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HectorO
skinsfan1177
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CPcantmeasuresnow
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aiannone
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docstox12
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Post by aiannone Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:13 pm

@amugs wrote:Here you go - plastered!

November 17th Storm Threat - Page 3 Gfsp_asnow_eus
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111500/gfsp_asnow_eus.html

YES!!! THANKS MUGS!
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Post by amugs Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:13 pm

We get a soaking rain and you get the gods - dam HP slides off the coast parallel to Jersey and pumps the SE ridge a bit and Cold Air 6 hours too late to the show - Snowman see a good coating to couple of inches out there in EPA if it works out and how far into PA he is.

Good night!

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Post by aiannone Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:13 pm

November 17th Storm Threat - Page 3 Gfs_6h11
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Post by aiannone Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:14 pm

@amugs wrote: We get a soaking rain and you get the gods - dam HP slides off the coast parallel to Jersey and pumps the SE ridge a bit and Cold Air 6 hours too late to the show - Snowman see a good coating to couple of inches out there in EPA if it works out and how far into PA he is.

Good  night!

I have to say, it's nice being off the coast for snowstorms lol. I'll bite my tongue though when the coast gets a huge blizzard and I get flurries up here lol!
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:28 pm

Yea this looks like a done deal for the coast. The PV is oriented so that it raises heights along the east coast which allows temps to the surge. Also doesn't help that the energy can't consolidate itself anywhere. It looks like a strung out mess. Alex this should easily be your first advisory snow, but I warn that if this storm trends east your totals would get cut down. Even if this storm does trend east, I only expect it to benefit NEPA and maybe NWNJ. In other words, expect rain for the majority of us Monday. A crappy day for sure.

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Post by algae888 Sat Nov 15, 2014 12:37 am

cmc is east with some frozen precip n/w of city....Monday morning

November 17th Storm Threat - Page 3 I_nw_g1_EST_2014111500_055

November 17th Storm Threat - Page 3 I_nw_g1_EST_2014111500_059
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Post by aiannone Sat Nov 15, 2014 12:41 am

0z CMC Snowfall
November 17th Storm Threat - Page 3 Cmc_sn12
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Post by algae888 Sat Nov 15, 2014 12:44 am

@aiannone wrote:0z CMC Snowfall
November 17th Storm Threat - Page 3 Cmc_sn12

alex you do very well if cmc verifies. i'm sure you'll take it in a heart beat
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Post by aiannone Sat Nov 15, 2014 12:47 am

@algae888 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:0z CMC Snowfall
November 17th Storm Threat - Page 3 Cmc_sn12

alex you do very well if cmc verifies. i'm sure you'll take it in a heart beat

Ohh yea no doubt! Looking at 3-5" with isolated 6" amounts right now
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Post by docstox12 Sat Nov 15, 2014 5:40 am

NWS calling for 1 1/2 inches of slop up here with maybe some backend snow Monday night.UGH! Would rather it be all rain,
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Nov 15, 2014 7:55 am

@docstox12 wrote:NWS calling for 1 1/2 inches of slop up here with maybe some backend snow Monday night.UGH! Would rather it be all rain,

What was our low this morning Doc? Do we still have snow on the ground?
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Nov 15, 2014 8:03 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:NWS calling for 1 1/2 inches of slop up here with maybe some backend snow Monday night.UGH! Would rather it be all rain,

What was our low this morning Doc? Do we still have snow on the ground?

BTW- Happy Birthday Doc, and many more to follow.
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Post by amugs Sat Nov 15, 2014 8:28 am

Happy Birthday DOC - God Bless and many more to come - Healthy and Happy!!

Cold friggin' rain - lovely Nov weather - I will take this now for a 4-6" event later!

SNOW right on the edge my man snow/mix - may see a few inches.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 15, 2014 9:41 am

The euro is so warm even Alex sees rain

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Post by algae888 Sat Nov 15, 2014 9:59 am

nam is very warm too...

November 17th Storm Threat - Page 3 Nam_namer_063_10m_wnd_precip
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Post by aiannone Sat Nov 15, 2014 10:32 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:The euro is so warm even Alex sees rain

Yea Burlington and Albany are nothing going with a CMC/GFS blend and not using the euro. They think its too NW and warm.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 15, 2014 10:53 am

Euro ens are colder so I think the OP is a little off

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 15, 2014 1:28 pm

Wow, whether or not we get rain or snow the wind gusts are going to be high (this website can exaggerate but its only 57 hrs out)! Of course this is based off the GFS only.

November 17th Storm Threat - Page 3 Gfs_wi10
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 15, 2014 1:51 pm

The GEFs 12z ensembles have 900mb winds between 60-85 kts either right at or even a bit onshore around 60 hrs, def have to keep a eye on that.  I am a amzed at how much GFS backed off on the snow even inaldn, HWO for poconos though and this for RB says could be a ice issue with 1-2/10ths of a inch of ice on top of snow.  Thats nasty, but not damaging thank goodness.  Looks about a inche to inch and half of rain for most with GFS. Euro coming on soon.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 15, 2014 1:53 pm

Dang Euro agrees 60 hr winds areas could see high wind warning criteria or close to it.

November 17th Storm Threat - Page 3 Euro_w10
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 15, 2014 1:56 pm

And then  next frame LI gets slammed with near 70mph wind gusts damn,

November 17th Storm Threat - Page 3 Euro_w11

still could change but Euro and GFS basically agree on there being a strong wind event component to it, not going to be fun if it coincides with a a bitter rain.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Nov 15, 2014 2:25 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:NWS calling for 1 1/2 inches of slop up here with maybe some backend snow Monday night.UGH! Would rather it be all rain,

What was our low this morning Doc? Do we still have snow on the ground?

BTW- Happy Birthday Doc, and many more to follow.

Thanks CP, my fellow HV friend for the nice sentiment.The HV had a nice little pre-birthday present with that 2 inches of snow.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Nov 15, 2014 2:27 pm

@amugs wrote:Happy Birthday DOC - God Bless and many more to come - Healthy and Happy!!

Cold friggin' rain - lovely Nov weather - I will take this now for a 4-6" event later!

SNOW right on the edge my man snow/mix - may see a few inches.

Thanks Mugsy, always a pleasure talking to you, oh King!

Thinking I'm in the slop for this next one but maybe and inch or two of that.Keep em coming guys!!!!!!!!
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Post by algae888 Sat Nov 15, 2014 2:31 pm

Jman with the winds and temperatures around freezing Tuesday afternoon wind chills are going to be in the teens and maybe two near 0 Tuesday night going to feel bitter cold. with this impressive cold coming too bad we're missing the chance for snow
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 15, 2014 2:39 pm

Hey happy b-day doc.  My family is in VT near Okemo in the mountains and have a bit of snow.
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