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November 17th Storm Threat

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HectorO
skinsfan1177
Dunnzoo
CPcantmeasuresnow
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docstox12
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 15, 2014 2:40 pm

OI know Al, I believe I am in the office Tuesday but not in the evening brrrr.  Could potentially get as windy as that last storm, hope we don't lose power.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Nov 15, 2014 2:59 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:OI know Al, I believe I am in the office Tuesday but not in the evening brrrr.  Could potentially get as windy as that last storm, hope we don't lose power.

I'm flying into Newark Tuesday morning Jman. Keep me updated these winds may be a problem.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 15, 2014 3:01 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:OI know Al, I believe I am in the office Tuesday but not in the evening brrrr.  Could potentially get as windy as that last storm, hope we don't lose power.

I'm flying into Newark Tuesday morning Jman. Keep me updated these winds may be a problem.

Turbulence, not fun.

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Post by docstox12 Sat Nov 15, 2014 3:06 pm

Thanks,J Man for remembering.I appreciate it!

Think VT will do great with this next storm, a way interior NE special!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Nov 15, 2014 3:06 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:OI know Al, I believe I am in the office Tuesday but not in the evening brrrr.  Could potentially get as windy as that last storm, hope we don't lose power.

I'm flying into Newark Tuesday morning Jman. Keep me updated these winds may be a problem.

Turbulence, not fun.

It scares the crap out of me Frank. I feel every bump.

I had a harrowing flight over Colorado in a Thunderstorm 25 years. I thought for sure the pilot had no control over the plane. I don't think I've recovered since.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Nov 15, 2014 3:08 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:OI know Al, I believe I am in the office Tuesday but not in the evening brrrr.  Could potentially get as windy as that last storm, hope we don't lose power.

I'm flying into Newark Tuesday morning Jman. Keep me updated these winds may be a problem.

Hope it's nice and smooth for you that day CP! We need you back up here, you are the "Mayor" of the HV you know!
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 15, 2014 3:37 pm

CP I will, many times the models exagerate winds as I said before but they have shown at least at flight level would be some concern and ground level too could potentially be a concern.  turbulance is not fun I remmember a drop on my flight that felt like miles, pilot told us he had to drop to avoid a very turbulant area, that scared me more than turbulance does.  You will be ok, but might cause delays possibly.
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Post by aiannone Sat Nov 15, 2014 9:37 pm

Well this storm suddenly became warm for me now lol
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 15, 2014 9:43 pm

Alex actually NWS seems to think there will be wintry precip especially NW of NYC so I would imagine up there too.

Upton disco

MAIN ISSUE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING IS P-TYPE FOR AREAS
TO THE N AND W OF NYC. APPEARS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR...NOTING COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNAL IN ALL MODELS IN
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX...CHANGING TO ALL
FREEZING RAIN...THEN TO RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF NE NJ...AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SW
CT. GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF AN-INCH OF SNOW/SLEET IN THIS AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION EXPECTED
BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE ONLY RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION COULD END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF A SNOW/RAIN MIX OR EVEN
ALL SNOW ACROSS MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR LESS THAN AN INCH
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC
COUNTIES MONDAY EVENING.

A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WAS USED TO
FORECAST P-TYPES AND TRANSITION TIMES.

Already talking about dangerous icing great.  I wonder how far north or south this will set up.
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Post by algae888 Sat Nov 15, 2014 9:53 pm

@aiannone wrote:Well this storm suddenly became warm for me now lol

wow alex this storm jumped 200 miles west since last nights runs. hope this doesn't happen all winter....

November 17th Storm Threat - Page 4 Nam_namer_042_10m_wnd_precip
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Nov 15, 2014 10:10 pm

Based on todays runs, the trough stays to our west keeping us warm and rainy, with winds coming in from the southwest....looks warm for all of NJ with the exception of higher elevations in NWNJ. Cold comes crashing in too late on Tuesday, oh well, maybe they will sync up better next time!

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Nov 15, 2014 11:23 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Well this storm suddenly became warm for me now lol

wow alex this storm jumped 200 miles west since last nights runs. hope this doesn't happen all winter....

November 17th Storm Threat - Page 4 Nam_namer_042_10m_wnd_precip

How come this never seems to happen in reverse, can't remember the last time I saw a storm 200 miles east of the benchmark all of a sudden go back two days before the storm date all the model runs reverse and ride the storm over the benchmark. Oh well technically winter doesn't even start for another month and a week.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 15, 2014 11:29 pm

The wind continues to look to be the main issue with sustained winds in the 20-35mph range for a good 12 hr period for many especially across LI and coastal areas but also into southern westchester, and as can be seen below (only place I know of you can see GFS wind gusts) 50-60mph gusts in a large swath.

November 17th Storm Threat - Page 4 Gfs_gu10
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 15, 2014 11:31 pm

I am inclined to start believing at only 45 hrs or less out that the winds are and have been consistent on their strength as this system deepens as the GFS has it pass right over us at 996mb.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 16, 2014 2:13 am

The worst of the wind gusts appear to be Monday afternoon and evening, with gusts between 30-40 mph. I can see areas along the immediate coast, such as east end of LI, with gusts near 50 mph.

November 17th Storm Threat - Page 4 Ecmwf_uv10g_neng_9

You can also expect between 1-2 inches of rain on Monday. Coming to an end by early Tuesday morning

November 17th Storm Threat - Page 4 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f51

November 17th Storm Threat - Page 4 Ecmwf_tprecip_neng_15

Hey CP, I think you should be ok landing on Tuesday. Winds will be between 15-25 mph, but there will not be rain falling. Lets just say planes have landed in much worse conditions.

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Post by docstox12 Sun Nov 16, 2014 5:23 am

I have a winter weather advisory here for maybe 1 inch of snow and sleet before the changeover to rain.Looks like a soaker on the way.Possible snow showers Tuesday PM.Deep freeze comes in for the rest of the week.
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Post by amugs Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:53 am

@docstox12 wrote:I have a winter weather advisory here for maybe 1 inch of snow and sleet before the changeover to rain.Looks like a soaker on the way.Possible snow showers Tuesday PM.Deep freeze comes in for the rest of the week.

Doc,

Happy Birthday again and the first WWA of many hopefully advisories this season!! Abouth 1/10th " ice accretion I read possibly for you or just north of you - is it Jan or November. I hope you had a great bday and enjoy the slop tomorrow as I get nothing but cold friggin rain all day l-o-n-g!

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Post by docstox12 Sun Nov 16, 2014 9:18 am

Mugsy, at my age (64), I consider it a good day just to wake up!

Definitely may be dicey tomorrow AM here.On the southern fringe of frozen precip on this storm.Bergen County should be all rain.And, yes, hope there are not only WWE's but also WSW's and maybe a blizzard warning in there.Will never forget NWS map on Dec 26, 2010 with that solid red up and down the coast.What a magnificent storm for Bergen County!
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 16, 2014 9:21 am

doc I am thinking we see a lot of bigger events and maybe not so many wwa, but wsw and b word dont jinx us! LOL  Cannot wait for real winter to kick in, just hope its cold enough at the coast for the big storms.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Nov 16, 2014 10:04 am

LOL,jman, thinking with the connections lining up nicely that that certain word (don't even want to say it or jinx us) may be possible.Certainly those WSW's! Anyway, wouldn't worry about the coast, the trend is your friend there, big snowstorms having a S and E bias the last 5 years.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 16, 2014 10:23 am

Accuweather and TWC have Tuesday with ustained winds 25-35mph, so IMO gusts will be higher Frank, maybe 40-50.  Probably not 50 to 60 except eastern CT and MA have high wind watches.  I think we meet advisory level criteria at least with all due respect.  On the mark for everything else 1-2 inches of rain looks likely, not a fun Monday or Tuesday (at least Tuesday will be sunny and NWS now calls for small chance of snow shower.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Nov 16, 2014 6:34 pm

what time does the rain start
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Nov 16, 2014 6:52 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:what time does the rain start

you might be seeing some shortly, rain approaching Philadelphia now, but the bulk of the moisture looks to come in around 3-4 am....going to be a long cold rainy day.


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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Nov 16, 2014 7:01 pm

Not a Great day for a sanitation Guy lol
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Post by aiannone Sun Nov 16, 2014 7:46 pm

My forecast for tomorrow at Lyndon. I have tomorrow for the 1" contest for the school, kind of like we do here on this forum with the winter predictions, so hopefully i get that inch before the changeover and win!

Tonight A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Calm wind. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Monday Snow before noon, then rain and sleet between noon and 1pm, then rain after 1pm. High near 37. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Monday Night Rain and snow showers before 2am, then a chance of snow showers. Low around 26. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
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