NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 17, 2014 8:27 am

Good morning and welcome to my 3rd Annual Winter Outlook!! You can expect accumulating snowfall at the bottom of your desktop, laptop, tablet, etc... today which will accumulate anywhere from 40-50 inches. Hence, Godzilla avatar has been activated to raise awareness for your safety Cool

The upcoming winter could be a special one for the majority of us if the signals align the way I expect them to.

Before you click on the link, here is a couple of things you should know:

1. The outlook is divided into sections and if you rather skip the technical parts just scroll down to Section F.

2. At the end of each section in color red, I have a "Section in Review" which gives you a quick summary of the section I just spoke about. That may also be beneficial to you if you're looking to avoid the long read.


Please click on the link which will take you to my official outlook. As always, if you have any question please do not hesitate to ask me. Without further adieu...

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2014/11/2014-2015-winter-outlook.html

Below are some graphics taken from my outlook, please read the outlook to get the full analysis.

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! 2015_winter_forecast

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Temp_departs

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! PRECIP_FORECAST

-Frank

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by nancy-j-s Mon Nov 17, 2014 8:45 am

Thanks for your in depth outlook, Frank!  We all appreciate the work and time you put into your posts.  Looking forward to following the board this winter!
nancy-j-s
nancy-j-s

Posts : 35
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2013-06-11
Age : 68
Location : Riverdale, NJ (Morris County)

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by Dunnzoo Mon Nov 17, 2014 9:10 am

Great write-up Frank! Looking forward to seeing how the foecasts pan out!

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4365
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by Snow88 Mon Nov 17, 2014 10:17 am

Great write up. I want a Roidzilla. Very Happy
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2118
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 32
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 17, 2014 10:44 am

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Post-90-0-93467200-1416233447

In my outlook I mention how a SSW may happen sooner than normal this year. EuEuro Ens have very impressive warming over Siberia by the end of this month

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by amugs Mon Nov 17, 2014 10:58 am

Excellent write up and I KNOW This one will be EPIC!! We know have our leaders true blessing!!

SNOW WEENIE"S HERE WE GO!!!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by Isotherm Mon Nov 17, 2014 12:45 pm

Frank,



Great presentation, and nice use of visuals to convey your points. It's interesting that two of your analog years are stout Nino events, and I can certainly see why you chose them given other indicators such as the high PDO values. Will be fascinating to see if this winter behaves more like some of the more intense +ENSO events.



Here's to perfect verification! And 10 roidzilla storms!

Isotherm
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 231
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2014-09-01
Age : 30
Location : Monmouth County, NJ

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Nov 17, 2014 1:05 pm

Great write up Frank. I hope it plays out us on the coast.
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 17, 2014 1:32 pm

I think it will skins, look at all the coastals we have been having, we just have to get the real cold in here, too bad there isn't a system coming through in the next couple of days.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by sroc4 Mon Nov 17, 2014 1:37 pm

Fantastic read as usual Frank!!

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6869
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by algae888 Mon Nov 17, 2014 2:48 pm

frank great write up as usual. we should have a fun and sleepless winter ahead
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Nov 17, 2014 3:47 pm

Good read, frank. Very informative and easy to understand. I'm confident with your forecast verifying; however I think that your predicted snowfall total of 40-50 inches will be somewhat higher. I feel we will have multiple large storms especially as we head into January and February.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1716
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 55
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 17, 2014 4:02 pm

Thanks everyone! 

@nutley- that was a joke I made since I put a snowing feature on the forum. I never formally made a snowfall prediction. Don't like to do that. I did say above normal though.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by oldtimer Mon Nov 17, 2014 6:17 pm

Great work Frank I'm amazed at what you do and your knowledge I look forward to the winter months and to all the terrific people on this forum Thank you

oldtimer
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1098
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2013-01-16
Age : 75
Location : Port Jefferson Station Suffolk County

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by docstox12 Mon Nov 17, 2014 6:37 pm

Excellent Frank, got lost in the deeper tech stuff but it's very clear and concise overall.Guess I better go long coffee futures for all the late nights tracking winter storms the board is going to have this season.Bring it on!!!!!
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7242
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Nov 17, 2014 6:44 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Thanks everyone! 

@nutley- that was a joke I made since I put a snowing feature on the forum. I never formally made a snowfall prediction. Don't like to do that. I did say above normal though.
Can't give us a ballpark number? Seriously though, I believe we might see a widespread 1996 scenario blizzard this winter (Roidzilla) if we can get a west based -NAO. We already have a +PDO and an active southern jet so this year is as good as any.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1716
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 55
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 17, 2014 6:53 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Thanks everyone! 

@nutley- that was a joke I made since I put a snowing feature on the forum. I never formally made a snowfall prediction. Don't like to do that. I did say above normal though.
Can't give us a ballpark number? Seriously though, I believe we might see a widespread 1996 scenario blizzard this winter (Roidzilla) if we can get a west based -NAO. We already have a +PDO and an active southern jet so this year is as good as any.

1976-77 (one of my analogs), featured a +ENSO/+PDO and that winter only had 26 inches of snow for CPK. Reason being the extremely negative -AO/-NAO squashing the STJ south. That is still a possibility this winter considering how the trend has been for the PV to sink too far south. But it remains to be seen.


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Nov 17, 2014 7:15 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Thanks everyone! 

@nutley- that was a joke I made since I put a snowing feature on the forum. I never formally made a snowfall prediction. Don't like to do that. I did say above normal though.
Can't give us a ballpark number? Seriously though, I believe we might see a widespread 1996 scenario blizzard this winter (Roidzilla) if we can get a west based -NAO. We already have a +PDO and an active southern jet so this year is as good as any.

1976-77 (one of my analogs), featured a +ENSO/+PDO and that winter only had 26 inches of snow for CPK. Reason being the extremely negative -AO/-NAO squashing the STJ south. That is still a possibility this winter considering how the trend has been for the PV to sink too far south. But it remains to be seen.

With the EPO currently not looking as strong (negative) as last year, I wouldn't be overly concerned with the PV being too far south. Time will tell.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1716
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 55
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 17, 2014 11:48 pm

@oldtimer wrote:Great work Frank   I'm amazed at what you do and your knowledge  I look forward to the winter months and to all the terrific people on this forum   Thank you

@docstox12 wrote:Excellent Frank, got lost in the deeper tech stuff but it's very clear and concise overall.Guess I better go long coffee futures for all the late nights tracking winter storms the board is going to have this season.Bring it on!!!!!

Thank you to paisan and Doc!

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by Radz Tue Nov 18, 2014 6:55 am

Thank you Frank, nice work! Great read and looking fwd to an awesome winter!
Radz
Radz
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 927
Reputation : 17
Join date : 2013-01-12
Location : Cortlandt Manor NY

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by WOLVES1 Tue Nov 18, 2014 12:46 pm

Frank would you be ok if I post it on Facebook?
WOLVES1
WOLVES1

Posts : 103
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-01-10
Age : 49
Location : Malverne NY

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 18, 2014 1:12 pm

@WOLVES1 wrote:Frank would you be ok if I post it on Facebook?

Of course, go ahead

@radz- thank you!

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by WOLVES1 Tue Nov 18, 2014 1:59 pm

Thank you
WOLVES1
WOLVES1

Posts : 103
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-01-10
Age : 49
Location : Malverne NY

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 14, 2015 9:53 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Good morning and welcome to my 3rd Annual Winter Outlook!! You can expect accumulating snowfall at the bottom of your desktop, laptop, tablet, etc... today which will accumulate anywhere from 40-50 inches. Hence, Godzilla avatar has been activated to raise awareness for your safety Cool

The upcoming winter could be a special one for the majority of us if the signals align the way I expect them to.

Before you click on the link, here is a couple of things you should know:

1. The outlook is divided into sections and if you rather skip the technical parts just scroll down to Section F.

2. At the end of each section in color red, I have a "Section in Review" which gives you a quick summary of the section I just spoke about. That may also be beneficial to you if you're looking to avoid the long read.


Please click on the link which will take you to my official outlook. As always, if you have any question please do not hesitate to ask me. Without further adieu...

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2014/11/2014-2015-winter-outlook.html

Below are some graphics taken from my outlook, please read the outlook to get the full analysis.

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! 2015_winter_forecast

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Temp_departs

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! PRECIP_FORECAST

-Frank

Verifying my winter outlook, I would probably give myself a B.

Actual DJF precip

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Cd67_84_192_214_71_15_55_41_prcp

Actual DJF temp

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! 2ly4jn7

In general, I correctly said the colder and wetter than normal weather will be on the east and the warmer and drier than normal weather in the west and Ohio Valley. I should have extended the warmth to include all of the west, and I was too wet for the southeast. What did work out was regional map, correctly depicting what each area could experience this winter, i.e. Strong storms along I95 (Juno and all those dang Godzilla's in Boston).


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Mar 17, 2015 6:04 pm

Damn good call.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

2014-2015 Winter Outlook! Empty Re: 2014-2015 Winter Outlook!

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum