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Thanksgiving Week Forecast

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 21, 2014 1:27 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Frank I am trying to figure out why the CMC collapses the ridge.  On the 500mb Vorticty maps there is a nice Trough feature/ULL SW of the GOA that should pump the ridge right?
Thanksgiving Week Forecast - Page 2 Gem_z500_vort_namer_23

I think it has more to do with it just being a horrific model, which is scoring behind the GFS, EURO, and UKMET in verification lately. But I think it tries to crash the GOA low into the Pac. NW instead of helping to pump up the ridge.

The latest 12z EURO brings light snow to the area, but it probably is not sticking since surface temps are too warm. It also brings the storm in an entire 1 day ahead of the other models. So Wednesday. A lot of disagreement still.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 21, 2014 1:29 pm

Also doc that trough in the Pacific from the image you posted looks very broad. A broad trough usually means the upper air pattern is too fast, another reason why a ridge never amplified.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Nov 21, 2014 1:30 pm

Upper levels look good out to hr 120. Ride axis looks good trough looks sharp

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Post by sroc4 Fri Nov 21, 2014 1:31 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Also doc that trough in the Pacific from the image you posted looks very broad. A broad trough usually means the upper air pattern is too fast, another reason why a ridge never amplified.
gotcha

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Post by sroc4 Fri Nov 21, 2014 1:33 pm

On euro Northern energy hanging back just a tad too far west. Close though. Still has a sharp trough and nice ridge.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Nov 21, 2014 1:35 pm

On the Euro if the northern vort speeds up by 6hrs or the southern energy slows up it will unlock the cold air via the 1043 HP looking to set up in the wake of all this

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 21, 2014 1:36 pm

EURO was close. Check out the Miller B that follows afterward though, Thanksgiving evening into Friday

Thanksgiving Week Forecast - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f168

What's clear to me is the models do not know which H5 energies to focus on and they're spitting out some type of storm somewhere between Wednesday and Friday next week. I do NOT think there will be 2 storms at this time.


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Post by jmanley32 Fri Nov 21, 2014 5:37 pm

After watching raynos new video and looking at ensembles closer seems about 34% of Euro ensembles (which is pretty good 5-6 days out) has a decent to big snowstorm for the area he points out (including NYC). I do not even watch the GFS much anymore, now especially because who knows which one is more reliable, and I heard its not set to replace the old one now until January! Probably that second system the Euro shows won't be as big a threat as Rayno says it may be there but dig way far south and OTS, although some Euro ensembles also show even more snow falling a day or two after thanksgiving (I guess would be from that system). Going to be a exciting week IMO.
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Post by Snow88 Fri Nov 21, 2014 11:06 pm

0z GFS has a flatter ridge out west which sends the storm further east. Skirts the coast with light to moderate precip ( rain and snow ). Still plenty of time.
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Post by Snow88 Fri Nov 21, 2014 11:31 pm

GGEM is still well out to sea
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:41 am

Will update next weeks forecast tomorrow night in this thread

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 22, 2014 3:29 am

Well I was up not feeling o well and I just had that feeling that the Eurp is going to be our tell alll erm.....tada...if this will not being travel issues I don't know what will what  a storm!  Not saying it will happen but wow. I wouls say being thats 120 hrs time for a thread, maybe a blog Frank?

Thanksgiving Week Forecast - Page 2 Euro_w11


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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 22, 2014 3:30 am

Just for fun...maybe not : ) 132 totals and then 10 day with another clipper system to follow adding to make over 18 inches in many places!

Thanksgiving Week Forecast - Page 2 Euro_s10
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 22, 2014 3:31 am

Thanksgiving Week Forecast - Page 2 Euro_110
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 22, 2014 3:41 am

Also to note the Euro ensembles have some strong support of this amount of snow 21/50 give or take!
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Post by algae888 Sat Nov 22, 2014 5:35 am

jman just woke and wow euro goes crazy. however other models have different solutions. much different. I hate when this happens less than 5 days out. for now nws says euro an outlier. here is part of their disco....
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY HOW A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN FROM N CENTRAL CANADA INTERACTS WITH THIS
TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...AND HENCE ULTIMATELY DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY PHASING WITH THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH...SO ITS LOW IS WEAKER AND FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
THAT THERE WOULD BE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. THE GFS HAS ABOUT THE
SAME STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS THE CMC...BUT IS
FASTER AND HENCE HAS ENOUGH PHASING WITH THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH
TO HAVE ITS LOW BE A BIT STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE
CMC. THE GEFS MEAN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS. SO BASED ON THIS...FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE ECMWF
IS AN OUTLIER AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS A NON-ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME.
so euro big hit, cmc big miss and gfs in between. which one will be right? it amazes me how many times euro is right when its the weaker solution than other models. it seems euro is off when it has the stronger solution and the other models differ. still a lot of time left. BTW 6z gfs is a big miss.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Nov 22, 2014 6:31 am

@algae888 wrote:jman just woke and wow euro goes crazy. however other models have different solutions. much different. I hate when this happens less than 5 days out. for now nws says euro an outlier. here is part of their disco....
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY HOW A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN FROM N CENTRAL CANADA INTERACTS WITH THIS
TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...AND HENCE ULTIMATELY DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY PHASING WITH THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH...SO ITS LOW IS WEAKER AND FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
THAT THERE WOULD BE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. THE GFS HAS ABOUT THE
SAME STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS THE CMC...BUT IS
FASTER AND HENCE HAS ENOUGH PHASING WITH THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH
TO HAVE ITS LOW BE A BIT STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE
CMC. THE GEFS MEAN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS. SO BASED ON THIS...FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE ECMWF
IS AN OUTLIER AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS A NON-ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME.
so euro big hit, cmc big miss and gfs in between. which one will be right? it amazes me how many times euro is right when its the weaker solution than other models. it seems euro is off when it has the stronger solution and the other models differ. still a lot of time left. BTW 6z gfs is a big miss.


Wow, just all over the place with the various models this far out.No wonder the pro-mets hedge their arses off at points in time like this.If my technical indicators I use in my investment strategies were this inaccurate, I'd have to go back to work again,LOL

Anyhoo, somethings brewing according to NWS.30 or 40% of snow mentioned weds-thurs time frame.Hmmmmmmm........a white Thanksgiving perhaps?
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Post by Radz Sat Nov 22, 2014 7:01 am

@docstox12 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:jman just woke and wow euro goes crazy. however other models have different solutions. much different. I hate when this happens less than 5 days out. for now nws says euro an outlier. here is part of their disco....
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY HOW A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN FROM N CENTRAL CANADA INTERACTS WITH THIS
TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...AND HENCE ULTIMATELY DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY PHASING WITH THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH...SO ITS LOW IS WEAKER AND FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
THAT THERE WOULD BE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. THE GFS HAS ABOUT THE
SAME STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS THE CMC...BUT IS
FASTER AND HENCE HAS ENOUGH PHASING WITH THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH
TO HAVE ITS LOW BE A BIT STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE
CMC. THE GEFS MEAN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS. SO BASED ON THIS...FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE ECMWF
IS AN OUTLIER AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS A NON-ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME.
so euro big hit, cmc big miss and gfs in between. which one will be right? it amazes me how many times euro is right when its the weaker solution than other models. it seems euro is off when it has the stronger solution and the other models differ. still a lot of time left. BTW 6z gfs is a big miss.


Wow, just all over the place with the various models this far out.No wonder the pro-mets hedge their arses off at points in time like this.If my technical indicators I use in my investment strategies were this inaccurate, I'd have to go back to work again,LOL

Anyhoo, somethings brewing according to NWS.30 or 40% of snow mentioned weds-thurs time frame.Hmmmmmmm........a white Thanksgiving perhaps?

As much as i would love to see the 0z Euro solution, can we push it off till Friday… way too many travelers, i have family arriving from all over the country and really would hate to miss out on a long over due reunion! But will deal with whatever Mother nature hands out!
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Post by docstox12 Sat Nov 22, 2014 7:15 am

Agreed on that.Hate to see the travel plans screwed up and Holiday re-unions interrupted.The weekend would be ideal, but Mother Nature sets her own clock.
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Post by algae888 Sat Nov 22, 2014 7:33 am

radz yes I agree. Friday would be a much better day. except for retailers who would lose their black Friday sales. and what about people who love to shop and take advantage of the black Friday bargains. hmm. lets make it for Saturday. sending mother nature an email right now.lol
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 22, 2014 7:43 am

Well for me anything From friday till sunday would not be good as I am having a late thanksgiving with my family because people cannot get there till sat, but I plan to go Friday to visit.  Thursday turkey day right here i ntown so if it snows a slow10 min drive.  Either day would be bad and I think a hit on black friday would be very bad for economy on this side.  We will see as Al showed NWS feels Euro is a outlier, however of course they are not going to sound the orn  on a run like that 4-5 days out.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Nov 22, 2014 8:05 am

To me the pattern supports a soln that is very similar to last Mondays track.  I am in agreement with the NWS above, but again the volatility in this forecast remains high to the inconsistency in all the models.  One thing I can say is that this time there will be more cold air around so the R/S line should come into play in our coverage area when compared to last Monday where we all had rain only assuming the right track.  Cant say how far to the coast the R/S line comes but everyone is still in play as is the OTS soln.  

You can see the flip in the PNA that the Euro has been having and the back and fouth the GFS is having as well showing the volatility in the forecast.  The most recent runs want to spike it positive around Turkey day vs old runs which had it negative.  Remember the PNA corrolates to the ridge in the west.  We need the ridge not to flatten in order for the N energy to keep up with the southern energy in order for them to phase in time.  With the NAO still predicted to be positive we don't have blocking to slow the southern energy.    

Mugs do you have the one from the other day saved that you can repost for comparison??

Thanksgiving Week Forecast - Page 2 <a href=Thanksgiving Week Forecast - Page 2 Ecmwf_10" />
GFS
Thanksgiving Week Forecast - Page 2 <a href=Thanksgiving Week Forecast - Page 2 Gfs_pn10" />
P-GFS
Thanksgiving Week Forecast - Page 2 <a href=Thanksgiving Week Forecast - Page 2 Pgfs_t11" />

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by amugs Sat Nov 22, 2014 8:28 am

Scott I could not save it on my work computer - how any times does work get in the way of my fun!!?  ANyhoo I will look back a few posts and just repost the post that I posted the other day!
Sounds like you have two tens for a five?
Model frickin mayhem once again.
Read cmc has been garbage this month finishing last of all the global models. Euro is king followed by paragfs, gfs, ukie.

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Post by amugs Sat Nov 22, 2014 8:35 am

BINGOHere it is Doc:cheers:

Thanks Frank fro elaborating and it looks like mid December we start to roll if all things align - until then we are in a transient pattern. Interesting how GFS shows EPO tanking and Euro shows just the opposite?? These models can drive you to drink!


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Thanksgiving Week Forecast - Page 2 Post-7472-0-56560300-1416431523


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Post by amugs Sat Nov 22, 2014 8:40 am

Wow the gfs flattens the ridge in the west basically causing this energy to slide off the coast and brush us? 
Euro builds the ridge and I am assuming sharpens the the trough to bring it up the coast have not looked at any h5 maps.
Crazy runs ahead here and FWIW any time from tues to fri would be detrimental to this wonderful holiday for travel IMO.

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