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Thanksgiving Week Forecast

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Post by Snow88 Sat Nov 22, 2014 9:04 am

Steve D on Twitter

As I said over 2 months ago, Thanksgiving is looking cold and stormy and looks like that will be the case. Details on the way.

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Post by Snow88 Sat Nov 22, 2014 9:23 am

Euro control run has a SECS for our area
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 22, 2014 9:40 am

It would be nice to have an initial wave push through to supply the cold, but that may also push east the baroclinic  zone. Euro pretty much consolidated all the H5 energy at the base of the trough. Models are obviously struggling.

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Post by Snow88 Sat Nov 22, 2014 9:48 am

Bernie Rayno thinks the storm could go even further west than what the Euro is showing. Said this on Twitter.


"Too much of a storm mean atlantic warming mean trof is awfully far west for I-95. this could back up into here"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Nov 22, 2014 9:57 am

If this any indications on how these models are going to be with storms this winter I think ill start drinking now because im already getting the twitches lol
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Post by amugs Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:01 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:If this any indications on how these models are going to be with storms this winter I think ill start drinking now because im already getting the twitches lol

HHAHAHA!! - This is the line of this winter - you may have to check into a 12 step program (AA) by the middle of next month!! Laughing


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Post by amugs Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:10 am

@Snow88 wrote:Steve D on Twitter

As I said over 2 months ago, Thanksgiving is looking cold and stormy and looks like that will be the case. Details on the way.


Steve D is full of it he saw what I posted here utilizing the BSR (Bearing Sea Rule) after Nuri had the EPO tank to a record level - I have been honking this horn for a few weeks now - Laughing Laughing Laughing. I hear he trolls boards like this!!!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:23 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:If this any indications on how these models are going to be with storms this winter I think ill start drinking now because im already getting the twitches lol

Hahaha

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Post by algae888 Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:24 am

I know we do not have blocking over Greenland but the ridge off the east coast that will give us the very warm temps on Monday looks to try and build west ward during middle of this week forcing the trough to slow and move the low north instead of east. i do not have atlantic basin set up. any thoughts?
Thanksgiving Week Forecast - Page 3 Gfs_namer_096_500_vort_ht

Thanksgiving Week Forecast - Page 3 Gfs_namer_108_500_vort_ht
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:59 am

GFS trended toward the EURO with a low closer to the coast on Wednesday. Will wait for EURO to decide on new thread or not. One thing I'm noticing so far is the ridge is not falling apart like previous model runs, but the cold air is stale and rain might be more probable than snow. We'll see.

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Post by algae888 Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:23 am

frank looks much better think it will produce enough cold air with track off shore?..

Thanksgiving Week Forecast - Page 3 Gfs_namer_120_500_vort_ht
00z gfs
Thanksgiving Week Forecast - Page 3 Gfs_namer_108_500_vort_ht
12z gfs
Thanksgiving Week Forecast - Page 3 Gfs_namer_111_10m_wnd_precip
12z surface looks cold enough for snow
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:26 am

Verbatim that is snow, but the main source of the coldest air is bottled up around the Great Lakes. The trough is not dragging the coldest anomalies to the coast...So far

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Post by algae888 Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:29 am

Thanksgiving Week Forecast - Page 3 Gfs_namer_111_850_temp_mslp_precip

850's def cold enough. now we just have to see about surface. if storm is intense enough should be able to draw cold air down to surface. still long way to go.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:32 am

Hey guys, step in right direction from GFS if you like the Euro last night, good idea Frank to look at 12z Euro, see if last night was a hiccup.  Let the traking well already started lol.  I still see winds monday morning being a issue with the rain, will that storm have a effect on how the following setup will be?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:46 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Hey guys, step in right direction from GFS if you like the Euro last night, good idea Frank to look at 12z Euro, see if last night was a hiccup.  Let the traking well already started lol.  I still see winds monday morning being a issue with the rain, will that storm have a effect on how the following setup will be?

Good question. I have to look into that.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:10 pm

BTW, for those of you who know levi Cowan and his site tropicaltidbits.com it got a DDOS attack,  a huge one and it kocked his site out of commission.  He is keeping it down for 24 hrs and then going to see what he can do but he feels someone is upset that he gives out free models.  His site is a valuable source and its a shame some dumb hackers had to do this.  Someone out there has it in for the weather field for sure.
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Post by algae888 Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:34 pm

Cmc took a huge step West still east of last nights Euro and today's gfs but a step in the right direction. plus it was cold enough for snow if precipitation made it this far. at work can't post any pictures on my cell
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:35 pm

@algae888 wrote:radz yes I agree. Friday would be a much better day. except for retailers who would lose their black Friday sales. and what about people who love to shop and take advantage of the black Friday bargains. hmm.  lets make it for Saturday. sending mother nature an email right now.lol

Lets see if anything develops before we worry about the day. How about a Wednesday night and ends by Thursday morning. Roads and airports will be clear for travel by mid morning Thanksgiving and we have a nice white Holiday. I'd love it.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:49 pm

The recent HWO for aeas outside of Upton area around NYC is saying a storm with all rain wed, thats interesting considering many of the runs have shown it cold enough.  No HWO down to coast though which is even more interesting because you would think if inland would get rain so would the coast.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:41 pm

New thread

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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:41 pm

TWC now has me (Manhattan) in 70% rain/snow for Wednesday if that means anything (which is doesn't lol). Drastic change from yesterday at any rate.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 22, 2014 2:26 pm

moved
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