11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
+25
Math23x7
Dunnzoo
HEATMISER
Sharon L
carvin1079
mako460
oldtimer
sabamfa
Sunflowers138
rb924119
docstox12
algae888
Snow88
aiannone
pdubz
devsman
CPcantmeasuresnow
skinsfan1177
sroc4
NjWeatherGuy
Quietace
jmanley32
SoulSingMG
amugs
Frank_Wx
29 posters
Page 1 of 23
Page 1 of 23 • 1, 2, 3 ... 12 ... 23
11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
In my original Thanksgiving week outlook I posted a few days ago, I indicated Tuesday and Wednesday may be the best days to travel. However, I did take notice of a clustered group of H5 energies that were being shown on the EURO and I said this may have a chance to turn into an organized storm. Low and behold, the latest model runs are now showing a potent coastal storm on Wednesday. Rain or snow is uncertain at this time, it could be both, but there still exists the chance this slides out to sea.
Latest 12z EURO:
Verbatim, that is a strong storm on the EURO that would cause major travel headaches. It is close to worst case scenario. Worst case scenario would be an all-snow event.
The EURO h5 maps show some semblance of a western ridge, but it does not look very organized. If it falls apart on future model runs, this storm will NOT happen. So the ridge is key. Also notice there is completely no blocking. Good timing with the phase is what will eventually drive this storm up the coast. The 2 red circles shows the northern and southern streams, and there is even another piece involved around the Great Lakes that almost make this look like a triple phase.
Below are different scenario's with my confidence level (in percentage next to them)
Scenario A: A strong Nor'easter impacts the coastal plain from Washington DC to Boston, MA bringing heavy rainfall to changeover to heavy wet snow, resulting in minor to moderate accumulations. Strong winds and major travel delays would result. Power outages would also be of concern due to the heavy wet snow and strong winds. QPF amounts could be in order of 1.50-2.50'' (20%)
Scenario B: Scraped by a coastal storm bringing lighter winds with rain, snow, or possible mix. Delays would still occur but not as major as scenario A. This scenario probably has a weaker storm with an unorganized phase of the upper level streams. (30%)
Scenario C: Out to sea and we all have a peaceful Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving Eve (50%)
I will update these confidences again tomorrow as more model runs come in and I get a clearer picture of how they handle the upper level pattern.
Latest 12z EURO:
Verbatim, that is a strong storm on the EURO that would cause major travel headaches. It is close to worst case scenario. Worst case scenario would be an all-snow event.
The EURO h5 maps show some semblance of a western ridge, but it does not look very organized. If it falls apart on future model runs, this storm will NOT happen. So the ridge is key. Also notice there is completely no blocking. Good timing with the phase is what will eventually drive this storm up the coast. The 2 red circles shows the northern and southern streams, and there is even another piece involved around the Great Lakes that almost make this look like a triple phase.
Below are different scenario's with my confidence level (in percentage next to them)
Scenario A: A strong Nor'easter impacts the coastal plain from Washington DC to Boston, MA bringing heavy rainfall to changeover to heavy wet snow, resulting in minor to moderate accumulations. Strong winds and major travel delays would result. Power outages would also be of concern due to the heavy wet snow and strong winds. QPF amounts could be in order of 1.50-2.50'' (20%)
Scenario B: Scraped by a coastal storm bringing lighter winds with rain, snow, or possible mix. Delays would still occur but not as major as scenario A. This scenario probably has a weaker storm with an unorganized phase of the upper level streams. (30%)
Scenario C: Out to sea and we all have a peaceful Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving Eve (50%)
I will update these confidences again tomorrow as more model runs come in and I get a clearer picture of how they handle the upper level pattern.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
2nd straight run on euro showing a bomb - definitely something there - Jesus what a bad time for this!
Question what causes it to slide ots? the ridge would have to flatten in the west right?
Few more days/runs for this.
Question what causes it to slide ots? the ridge would have to flatten in the west right?
Few more days/runs for this.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
TWC: 70% rain/snow on Wed, NYC. Not that it matters (it's them) but interesting to see the chatter change now with the other models beginning POSSIBLY to trend toward Euro.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2853
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY
Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Woah thats two almost identical runs on Euro, 1.5-2.5 qpf equating to wxbell map of 10-14 inches of snow would mean like u said be very wet, winds gusting as for now eastern areas up to 70mph, 20% is a conservative estimate for wcs (IMO) for now good though a still a lot uncertainty, all snow or not be very bad. This would be a big problem system with what Euro shows, in fact a dryer snow would probably be better, power outages last thing we need to ruin thanksgiving.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
40% of Euro ensembles have a big storm event (verbatim snow totals about what actual Euro shows) but of course temps will be the issue here. This is pretty high for 5 days out for ensemble agreement.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
12z EURO Ens are out?
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Thought they run at 3:45 if im not mistaken.Frank_Wx wrote:12z EURO Ens are out?
Maybe it's 2:45 now because of the time change. I would check wxbell but I'm on mobile
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
- Posts : 3687
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 26
Location : Point Pleasant, NJ
Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
EURO Ens are 6-12'' from DC to Boston. Oh boy
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Yep they are out earlier now : ) Yep Frank, looks like a good shot at a big storm, you still thinking 20% after seeing ensembles? Also remember the 12z GFS trended west too. Forget the CMC I believe that is the outlier now despite what the NWS says with all due respect as they are the head honchos.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
GFS seems to be ticking west but I dont like the fact the CMC is not agreeing with the EURO here yet. I still think its 50/50 OTS or we get hit by something.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ
Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Frank_Wx wrote:EURO Ens are 6-12'' from DC to Boston. Oh boy
God I love this time of year. Getting my butt handed to me at work only to find statements like this, I love it. Obv it goes without saying that we still have a long way to go with this.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
NJ not sure who it was but I read on here earlier that the CMC has been the worst. I wouldnt even pay attention to it. I think GFS and Euro are going to be our friends and Ukie (I do not think its in range yet is it? If it is what is it showing?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
sroc4 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:EURO Ens are 6-12'' from DC to Boston. Oh boy
God I love this time of year. Getting my butt handed to me at work only to find statements like this, I love it. Obv it goes without saying that we still have a long way to go with this.
Yeah, gonna be a long few days of model watching.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ
Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
12z EURO ENS, tightly clustered
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Working hard on that project huh Frank lol, I should be doing a paper now too lol, ensembles really have this one a good possibility, if we get a similar run again tonight and tomorrow on Euro regardless of other models my confidence will go up a lot
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Also steadily moving up in time and landing about same timeframe with each run which is another sign of consistency.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Frank_Wx wrote:12z EURO ENS, tightly clustered
Left half would be nice, just looked at CMC ensembles and like the OP it barely shows anything. Hopefully it catches on soon, anyone have UK?
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2853
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY
Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Accuweather's map: 'East on alert for storm to threaten T-day Travel'
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2853
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY
Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
esentially what Euro is showing or CMC is the further OTS, but they talk about mostly rain, IMO I think this could be wrong for at least the latter half we cant get 6-12 with all rain lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Accuweather also calling for very windy conditions, 40+ mph gusts, like I had been saying see winds a isssue early monday morning through at least part of day and IMo may hit over 50mph in some locations.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Looks like GFS coming in about same as 12z, keeping that west area. Wow, instantweathermaps.com has wind gusts on the right side of storm near 80mph surface with wed/thur storm.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Upton now issued HWO this for NYC and westchester area along with CT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR A COASTAL STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW
CLOSE TO THE REGION THIS STORM WILL TRACK. A COMBINATION OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...RAIN...AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST ON
POTENTIAL STORM RELATED HAZARDS AND IMPACTS DURING THE BUSY
MIDWEEK HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR A COASTAL STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW
CLOSE TO THE REGION THIS STORM WILL TRACK. A COMBINATION OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...RAIN...AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST ON
POTENTIAL STORM RELATED HAZARDS AND IMPACTS DURING THE BUSY
MIDWEEK HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Benchmark storm on GFS now, a bit more west.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
jmanley32 wrote:Benchmark storm on GFS now, a bit more west.
I'd say we've got ourselves a TREND, kids!
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2853
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY
Page 1 of 23 • 1, 2, 3 ... 12 ... 23
Page 1 of 23
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|