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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 3:40 am

Mean snowfall:

11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 5 Euro_m10
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 3:41 am

Control snowfall, holy crap on a cracker (won't go out further than this but there appears to be another small clipper like system that adds to this over weekend, even NWS mentions it in discussion.

11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 5 Contro10
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 3:44 am

And temps, which appear to be enough to support mostly snow. This 2 meters which is surface.

11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 5 Euro_t10
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Post by algae888 Sun Nov 23, 2014 4:55 am

nws disco...
UNTIL ALL THE KEY PLAYERS...INCLUDING ENERGY STILL OUT OVER THE
PACIFIC ARE RESOLVED...THE EXACT NATURE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE E
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN - SO
THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
FOLLOWING IS WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY - THAT A FAIRLY DECENT...BUT
NOT OVERLY STRONG LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BLEND WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH LONG ISLAND
AND MAYBE FAR SE CT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NW FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. AS THE LOW NEARS THE BENCHMARK
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD COME IN
BEHIND IT TO CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FROM NW TO SE...THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THIS IS UNCERTAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THURSDAY MORNING...UNLESS THE DEFORMATION AXIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. FOR THIS REASON JUST WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ECMWF TAKEN BY ITSELF WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS TO THE W/N OF NYC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FARTHER EAST. GIVEN
THIS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
HWO. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST...IF NOT ALL...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE IMPACT ON THE BULK
OF PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

I think we want the euro strength with a gfs track. euro looks to far west for coastal areas to get any snow.
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Post by algae888 Sun Nov 23, 2014 5:12 am

6z gfs in looks real good. like euro just a bit east. this would be rain to snow.
11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 5 Gfs_namer_090_10m_wnd_precip
surface
11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 5 Gfs_namer_090_850_temp_mslp_precip
850's
11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 5 Gfs_namer_090_1000_500_thick
1000-500
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Post by algae888 Sun Nov 23, 2014 5:17 am

6z gfs has really slowed down from 00z and lingers precip through much of weds night. if we are to see any accumulations it will have to be wens night for even if it was all snow probably wouldn't accum during day time.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Nov 23, 2014 5:21 am

NWS putting more chips in the pot up here in the HV NY. Now, 50% probability from 40% last night and all snow for the entire event, Weds-Weds PM. Bergen county is snow to rain to snow.They mention that 30% chance of warning level snow up here.Can't ever remember a Thanksgiving with this possibility in the cards.I vaguely remember an 6 or 8 inch snowstorm in late November in Mahwah in the early 80's covering up all the leaves piled on the streets.

You guys have been discussing the positive teleconnections the last month.Well my, my,my.........
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Post by algae888 Sun Nov 23, 2014 5:23 am

6z gfs has about .5qpf from 10pm till 4am which would be all snow
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Post by algae888 Sun Nov 23, 2014 5:26 am

@docstox12 wrote:NWS putting more chips in the pot up here in the HV NY. Now, 50% probability from 40% last night and all snow for the entire event, Weds-Weds PM. Bergen county is snow to rain to snow.They mention that 30% chance of warning level snow up here.Can't ever remember a Thanksgiving with this possibility in the cards.I vaguely remember an 6 or 8 inch snowstorm in late November in Mahwah in the early 80's covering up all the leaves piled on the streets.

You guys have been discussing the positive teleconnections the last month.Well my, my,my.........
doc gotta love this tracking a strong coastal with snow possibilities in nov. good signs for this winter. a lot of late nights and early mornings with no sleep.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Nov 23, 2014 5:30 am

You got that right,algae! Right from the get go in Fall we are putting the coffee pot on early and having some great tracking here.Nice job on the material you have posted here.Can't do an all-nighter at my age anymore but I sure wake up very early to see what the model dance shows.
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Post by algae888 Sun Nov 23, 2014 5:43 am

thanks. and yes it's getting harder to stay up late not getting any younger but nothing can get my adrenaline going like tracking snow storms. what I try and do now is get some sleep in between model runs. image planning my day/nights and sleep around weather. family thinks I have a few loose screws. they will never understand doc. off to sleep until 12z.lol
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Post by docstox12 Sun Nov 23, 2014 5:56 am

Well, I've been hooked on this since the NYC Snowstorm of Dec 11-12 1960 so I have the same loose screws as you.

I'm going to post something on the Weather Archive thread on the Dec 11 anniversary of that storm.
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Post by sroc4 Sun Nov 23, 2014 7:33 am

So after analyzing last nights model runs we clearly still have two camps.  The OTS swing and a miss light brush maybe for eastern LI(CMC, P-GFS, and GFS ENS), and the in and/or around the BM will affect the area (Euro, Euro Ens, UKIE, and the latest GFS).  Our southern branch energy looks to come out of the GOM and begin to organize somewhere off the South Cackalacka/North Cackalacka Coast and move out from there.  Right now if I had to choose I would go with a blend of the N and W camp bringing the system right near the BM simply because of their superior track record (euro and Ukie specifically), and because you have such a tight cluster of LP making that track on the Euro ens.  When you look at the GFS ens package there is a much bigger spread amongst the memembers making the mean less accurate IMO.  

My confidence in this right now:
65% A track over the BM +/- 50-75miles E or W.  
35% A track somewhere S and E of the Black line in the image below.

Just for reference the Black line is merely a divide I put in there to show the two camps I mentioned above.  With the GFS and the P-GFS still back and fourth and not wanting to make up its mind I give that little weight at this time.  What worries me is the CMC.  Like Frank mentioned overnight it has been as consistent as the Euro only in showing the most OTS soln because it collapses the ridge out west the fastest and seemingly the flattest making the southern branch flow way too progressive.  We still have a ways to go here but my confidence is growing in at least mod impacts for most if not all of us one way or another (rain, slop, or snow).  I "think" the CMC comes west, but nowehere near 100% confident in that statement.  Remember still too early to speculate on who sees what etc as the track is not quite nailed down.  We should see some drastic changes to one of the two camps in the next 48hrs which will either lead to
cheers
OR
Sad

11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 5 <a href=11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 5 Lp_tra10" />

EURO ENSEMBLES:
[img]11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 5 Eps_sl11[/img]
[img]11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 5 Eps_sl12[/img]

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Post by Snow88 Sun Nov 23, 2014 8:10 am

6z GEFS continuing to shift west

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/ensprsloopmref.html
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 23, 2014 8:12 am

Couple of things: 

1. I think it is almost clear at this point there will be a storm to worry about on Wednesday, especially if you're traveling. 

2. The precip. type will probably start as rain for pretty much everyone, but if it changes to snow and when still needs to be ironed out. 

3. One thing I'm noticing is the cold air mass the storm will be trying to work with looks antecendent. The northern stream is doing a really poor job in tapping into the Arctic air source near the Great Lakes and bringing it down as it comes in for the phase. 

4. Temps early this week are going to get near 70 degrees and there will not be cold air in place once the storm gets here. So, if you're looking for snow there better be a bombing low right on the BM. However, models are consistent with not dropping this storm into the 990's mb until it's near Boston. Need a phase to happen sooner. 

5. That said, I think inland areas from eastern PA to northwest NJ to North of NYC into New England can expect a white Thanksgiving. Still a toss up for the coast.

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Post by sroc4 Sun Nov 23, 2014 8:13 am

Looks like 6 of 12 have at least a mod impact
11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 5 F90

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by sroc4 Sun Nov 23, 2014 8:16 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Couple of things: 

1. I think it is almost clear at this point there will be a storm to worry about on Wednesday, especially if you're traveling. 

2. The precip. type will probably start as rain for pretty much everyone, but if it changes to snow and when still needs to be ironed out. 

3. One thing I'm noticing is the cold air mass the storm will be trying to work with looks antecendent. The northern stream is doing a really poor job in tapping into the Arctic air source near the Great Lakes and bringing it down as it comes in for the phase. 

4. Temps early this week are going to get near 70 degrees and there will not be cold air in place once the storm gets here. So, if you're looking for snow there better be a bombing low right on the BM. However, models are consistent with not dropping this storm into the 990's mb until it's near Boston. Need a phase to happen sooner. 

5. That said, I think inland areas from eastern PA to northwest NJ to North of NYC into New England can expect a white Thanksgiving. Still a toss up for the coast.

Agree 100%

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Snow88 Sun Nov 23, 2014 8:29 am

9z SREF FWIW

11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 5 14m6y3r
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 8:43 am

I see from reading and checking the models that GFS came west, verbatim gives us a lot more snow than last run closer to Euro.  But sounds like there is a lot more to look at and still up in the air.  Will be a interesting 48 hrs, if CMC suddenly comes on board then we really have something, but IMO we already do.  Frank when I looked at Euro temps last night they looked plenty cold, was I not looking at the right map? I posted a page back.
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Post by Snow88 Sun Nov 23, 2014 8:52 am

Joe Cioffi

thinking day runs may shift a little east and be a little colder. got a feeling off euro run from last night. East models shift a bit left

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Post by Snow88 Sun Nov 23, 2014 9:01 am

Heard that the Euro shows surface temps in the low to mid 30s for NYC. Anyone can verify?
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 9:05 am

Thats what I read snow but I could be wrong, but it looked plenty cold to me for the storm.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 9:10 am

Mug sorry man, the exciting notation from NWS for you is gone, saying accumulation not very likely, although I think its more likely than many are taking it to be many wx sites are forecasting 3-6 for NYC area at this time.  We will see still several days to track.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Nov 23, 2014 9:13 am

@docstox12 wrote:NWS putting more chips in the pot up here in the HV NY. Now, 50% probability from 40% last night and all snow for the entire event, Weds-Weds PM. Bergen county is snow to rain to snow.They mention that 30% chance of warning level snow up here.Can't ever remember a Thanksgiving with this possibility in the cards.I vaguely remember an 6 or 8 inch snowstorm in late November in Mahwah in the early 80's covering up all the leaves piled on the streets.

You guys have been discussing the positive teleconnections the last month.Well my, my,my.........

The last significant snowfall on Thanksgiving day, at least in NYC, was November 23, 1989, when 4.4 inches fell in Central Park. I remember about 8-10 in the HV that day.  It was a very nice nice Thanksgiving indeed and it was a great way to bring in the Christmas season.

How I would love to see a repeat this year.

One word of caution that year was also a very crappy year for snowfall December through March, but since the 1980's was the least snowiest decade in recorded history I don't put any significance for the coming winter on whether or not we have snow on Thanksgiving.

Inaccurate weather now predicting 4-8 inches of snow for Orange County on Wednesday. That of course will change several times up or down between now and then.
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Post by sroc4 Sun Nov 23, 2014 9:39 am

Still need to iron out track details. A track at or near the BM will undoubtedly bring evaporative cooling into play with a system that is modeled to be intensifying as it passes by the BM IMO. Ill say this, and Ive said this a few times already with this system and the past few, the intensity of the southern stream systems have typically ended up a tad stronger than what was modeled in the medium range. With that in mind Joe Ciofi's comment falls right in line with mine regarding track. I myself will not speculate too much about who sees what until tomorrow after 12z.

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