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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 22, 2014 5:30 pm

Of course para-GFS has it well offshore, no snow barely any precip at all.  BUT it the 18z, I want to see 00z, more accurate as I have heard.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 22, 2014 5:32 pm

Two serious wind threats too, first Sunday night into Monday my locat forecast calls for 20-30mph sustained with gusts possibly over 50mph, then depending on track of wed storm could have very high winds.
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Nov 22, 2014 5:32 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Of course para-GFS has it well offshore, no snow barely any precip at all.  BUT it the 18z, I want to see 00z, more accurate as I have heard.

Also bear in mind, piece of energy comes onshore tomorrow = better sampling altogether.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 22, 2014 5:36 pm

true soul, crossing fingers, but already we have a lot of signals and media is pressing it as is NWS so IMO we got a wild ride coming.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Nov 22, 2014 5:38 pm

I wonder how much cold we are going to have to work with I know dynamics can bring in the cold but it may be tough for coastal areas may be western snow storm. Any thoughts guys and gals
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 22, 2014 5:39 pm

skins, from what I have been reading too early to tell, verbatim they have snow to the coast.  If it is strong enough think it will be like frank said rain to a heavy wet snow and high winds, pwer outages then may become a issue. WCS though which frank put at 20%.  Wondering what he will think next update
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Nov 22, 2014 5:45 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:I wonder how much cold we are going to have to work with I know dynamics can bring in the cold but it may be tough for coastal areas may be western snow storm. Any thoughts guys and gals

Depends on strength of the low, IMO. There will be cold air to work with so if she's strong enough, rain would probably change to snow near coast as low moves north & east.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Nov 22, 2014 5:46 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:skins, from what I have been reading too early to tell, verbatim they have snow to the coast.  If it is strong enough think it will be like frank said rain to a heavy wet snow and high winds, pwer outages then may become a issue. WCS though which frank put at 20%.  Wondering what he will think next update
thanks Jman
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Nov 22, 2014 5:46 pm

Bah benchmark is junk, I like the storm inside the benchmark like the EURO showed. Tonights 0z gonna be fun..
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 22, 2014 5:47 pm

Yep nj. I'm leaning to euro. Meant gfs headed west. Not that benchmark storm is good for us. Plus.it's 18z. 18z is sketchy.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Nov 22, 2014 5:52 pm

A


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Nov 22, 2014 5:54 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Nov 22, 2014 5:53 pm

Worst case scenario an all snow event Frank? I suppose for people traveling but we had over 20 inches of snow Christmas day 2002 and everyone still showed up at my in-laws. I for one would love a snowstorm Thanksgiving Day. I'm putting up the outside Christmas lights tomorrow in what is suppose to be a balmy 48 degrees, after that let it snow.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 22, 2014 6:31 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Worst case scenario an all snow event Frank? I suppose for people traveling but we had over 20 inches of snow Christmas day 2002 and everyone still showed up at my in-laws. I for one would love a snowstorm Thanksgiving Day. I'm putting up the outside Christmas lights tomorrow in what is suppose to be a balmy 48 degrees, after that let it snow.

Yea I am talking relative to travel. An all-out snowstorm would be a nightmare and cause chaos. Which I guess is fun to see for some people. Haha

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by sroc4 Sat Nov 22, 2014 6:49 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:I wonder how much cold we are going to have to work with I know dynamics can bring in the cold but it may be tough for coastal areas may be western snow storm. Any thoughts guys and gals

IMO another 48-72hrs we will be able to look at 850mb temps and their relationship to some of the heaviest bands. With a system as strong as the euro has it evaporative cooling will surely be a factor for the coastal plain S and E of the I-95 corridor. Those details will have to be examined no earlier than 72 hrs out so we can look at dew points and relative humidity over coastal locations. There is an HP that is consistently modeled N to NE of Maine which is good (I'd like to see it centered a tad west) which will be a source of cold. One of the problems I see is the weak LP that is modeled over the western GL brining a SW flow out ahead that may bring warmer air to mix into the mid levels esp early on. Maybe not though. However the Hp north of Maine and the hP NW of the GL look to build in over the top and almost connect.  This will only add to the strenthening of the coastal.  The steepest gradient will win out.


Last edited by sroc4 on Sat Nov 22, 2014 6:52 pm; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by sroc4 Sat Nov 22, 2014 6:50 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Bah benchmark is junk, I like the storm inside the benchmark like the EURO showed. Tonights 0z gonna be fun..

For you maybe. BM for me = cheers

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Nov 22, 2014 7:22 pm

Only new news is 18z DGEX ticked west from way OTS 6z run, now its a scraper like the GFS showed yesterday.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Nov 22, 2014 7:25 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Bah benchmark is junk, I like the storm inside the benchmark like the EURO showed. Tonights 0z gonna be fun..

For you maybe. BM for me = cheers
I believe benchmark is great for us as well. cheers
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Nov 22, 2014 7:27 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Bah benchmark is junk, I like the storm inside the benchmark like the EURO showed. Tonights 0z gonna be fun..

For you maybe. BM for me = cheers
ui
I believe benchmark is great for us as well. cheers

A bit inside the benchmark is typically good for all, cmon spread the love to us in the N and W, keep trending...
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 22, 2014 7:28 pm

Im.going with euro. Gfs will trend to euro watch.
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Post by devsman Sat Nov 22, 2014 8:03 pm

GFS showed a heavy storm for the 26th last week then backed off. That happened with the last rain storm too. GFS seems to show a storm 15 days away then changes 10 days away then picks it up 5 days before. So thinking it will show it later tonight or tomorrow.
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Post by pdubz Sat Nov 22, 2014 9:39 pm

i'm back for winter and just in time to track this new storm Smile
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Post by aiannone Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:05 pm

hey guys, just arrived back on LI. Hoping to go from VT snow to LI snow! Fun few days of model tracking coming! Glad i have the week off!
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Post by amugs Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:36 pm

Here we go from NWS MT Holly!! Even if it doesn't snow holy crap it is going to cause a myriad of problems- getting my snow weenie excitement up and blood flowing! Just got in from a great dinner with great friends and two bottle so cab vino - holy hannas reading this this far out by NWS IMO. Not etched in stone but wowza!!

I am just sayin' to my fellow snow weenies that if this storm verifies I keep my snow weenie crown! until 2015-16 drunken king Laughing Laughing


mt holly talking naughty

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM. - last time was ?? SANDY!!

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Post by Snow88 Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:51 pm

This system is loaded with moisture on the GFS
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:52 pm

@amugs wrote:Here we go from NWS MT Holly!! Even if it doesn't snow holy crap it is going to cause a myriad of problems- getting my snow weenie excitement up and blood flowing! Just got in from a great dinner with great friends and two bottle so cab vino - holy hannas reading this this far out by NWS IMO. Not etched in stone but wowza!!

I am just sayin' to my fellow snow weenies that if this storm verifies I keep my snow weenie crown! until 2015-16 drunken  king  Laughing  Laughing


mt holly talking naughty

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM. - last time was ?? SANDY!!

Woah. Some strong language in there for a generally conservative wx office. So excited/anxious to see the 00z suite.
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