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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:30 am

11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Post-25-0-00140000-1416835464

SREF. ..like GFS. Someone's gotta give today, right?

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by sroc4 Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:33 am

aiannone wrote:Scott we are still in it!
ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT SNOW AND RAIN
AMOUNTS...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ALL BUT THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST ON POTENTIAL STORM RELATED
HAZARDS AND IMPACTS DURING THE BUSY MIDWEEK HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.

Nothing is off the table Alex esp if the Euro continues to tick east. That being said I'm not overly optimistic. Rb made some great point a few posts back about the euros ensembles. The dynamics of a storm like this will undoubtedly play a role, so again even though we are closer to nailing down a track it's still not set in stone. My gut is telling me that we will be surprised at just how far S and E the R/S makes it but for our location it may end up so close yet so far. I'll be happy to see flakes. I'm approaching this in such a way so that I won't be let down, but objectively still believe accumulations for all us is well within the realm of possibility. This time tomorrow I may feel differently.

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:35 am

Frank news 7 said 1 to 3 just north of city including me then increases from there inland. Even with the majority of models moved east u are still side with euro? So u think all the other models will move back west again or is it still a toss up and if so when do u think we will have a good handle.
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by sroc4 Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:36 am

Frank_Wx wrote:11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Post-25-0-00140000-1416835464

SREF. ..like GFS. Someone's gotta give today, right?

Seriously this is crazy. It's like two stubborn Italians.

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:39 am

jmanley32 wrote:Frank news 7 said 1 to 3 just north of city including me then increases from there inland. Even with the majority of models moved east u are still side with euro? So u think all the other models will move back west again or is it still a toss up and if so when do u think we will have a good handle.

I said..."but then again" meaning I can see how both models are correct. The EURO is over-amplifying the southern s/w energy which raises heights along the east coast too high. This in turn keeps the jet streak tugged inside the coast instead of it being placed off the coast like the GFS and other models show. This will all depend on 2 things: Ridge in the west and how high heights are along EC

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Snow88 Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:48 am

SREF Mean has 7.46 inches of snow for LGA and 5.87 inches for JFK

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20141124&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=JFK&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.35047213588036&mLON=-73.1473890625&mTYP=roadmap
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:53 am

Snow88 wrote:SREF Mean has 7.46 inches of snow for LGA and 5.87 inches for JFK

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20141124&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=JFK&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.35047213588036&mLON=-73.1473890625&mTYP=roadmap

Could they be more specific with the snow totals. I believe 7.463 inches may fall at La Guardia.
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Snow88 Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:03 am

The dividing line on the SREF mean is Islip. Areas to the west of Islip get more snow and areas to the east get a little snow.
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by RJB8525 Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:11 am

Well I had to break the news to my gf in caldwell about this in the 6-10" watch looks like we'll leave tomorrow for my folks house in the city since they will be left out
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:11 am

SREFs definitely came more northwest, which leads me to believe that the NAM will also, which is fine, since it's been the furthest east anyway :p

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:12 am

rb924119 wrote:SREFs definitely came more northwest, which leads me to believe that the NAM will also, which is fine, since it's been the furthest east anyway :p

That model is higher than Snoop Dog on a Sunday. Why it still runs puzzles me.

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:14 am

AHAHAHAHAHA God that was funny lmao yeah they're pretty terrible, but they are actually pretty decent inside of the 48 hour mark, at least I think....starting to get in their window.

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:17 am

And I'm pretty sure Penn State's Ewall hates me-12z NAM has been stuck at hour 30 for at least 15 minutes -_-

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:19 am

There we gooooo lol through 36 12z southern stream is weaker, yet the trough is slightly deeper.....

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:26 am

Is that a good thing
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:29 am

Depends where you live lol deeper trough means larger height rises ahead of it, which will lead to a track further west. One thing to note is the third vort diving in behind is significantly stronger in the 12z versus the 00z. This could act to increase the phasing earlier. Have to see

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Quietace Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:30 am

Lots of precip this run on the back side through 48
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:31 am

12z is slightly faster and stronger...location is about the same, though.

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Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:34 am

Slightly further west, but that's a great observation about the backend precip.

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Snow88 Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:34 am

Nam is going to be near or on the benchmark
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:34 am

Definitely stronger

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:36 am

NAM is like Opera. "you get 6 inches, you get 6 inches, you get 6 inches"

I saw some feedback issues.

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Post by Quietace Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:38 am

Surface is pretty warm near the cost for a good amount of precip but with the Upper levels so cold this run and the LP near BM, i think dynamics would take care of that verbatim.
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:39 am

I do not trust this model so I am disregarding it, regardless what it shows. 12z GFS please.

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Post by aiannone Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:39 am

NAM is actually pretty cold IMO

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 19 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:43 am

Lol yeah, NAM has been pretty crummy lately. Still like to look at it though, just to see what it does. Sometimes it's helpful in diagnosing meso-scale stuff, especially inside of 24/36 hours.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:46 am

like ur thinking ace, and i am not even totally coast somewhat nw of 95 but not a lot, going to be a close call unless it stays way west.
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